La Liga· Regular Season - 22· · referee: not announced
Predicted match statistics
| Stat | Home | safe | safer | Away | safe | safer | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.33 | 0.36–2.29 | 0.10–2.55 | 1.06 | 0.20–1.92 | 0.00–2.17 | 2.390.06–4.72 |
| Shots on target | 4.68 | 2.83–6.54 | 2.33–7.04 | 3.54 | 1.83–5.24 | 1.36–5.71 | 8.223.69–12.75 |
| Total shots | 13.69 | 9.99–17.39 | 8.96–18.42 | 10.39 | 7.01–13.77 | 6.08–14.70 | 24.0815.04–33.12 |
| Shots in box | 8.68 | 6.17–11.20 | 5.30–12.06 | 5.71 | 3.41–8.01 | 2.61–8.81 | 14.407.92–20.87 |
| Blocked shots | 3.74 | 2.16–5.33 | 1.62–5.86 | 2.80 | 1.39–4.22 | 0.90–4.70 | 6.542.53–10.56 |
| Corners | 4.92 | 2.72–7.13 | 2.12–7.72 | 3.99 | 2.01–5.97 | 1.47–6.50 | 8.913.59–14.23 |
| Possession % | 48.24 | 41.93–54.56 | 40.33–56.16 | 50.88 | 44.56–57.20 | 42.96–58.80 | — |
| Passes | 440 | 374–505 | 357–523 | 445 | 380–509 | 363–527 | 884719–1050 |
| Pass accuracy % | 71.98 | 67.76–76.19 | 66.46–77.49 | 71.68 | 67.18–76.19 | 65.85–77.52 | — |
| Fouls | 12.02 | 9.17–14.88 | 8.28–15.77 | 12.64 | 9.69–15.58 | 8.78–16.50 | 24.6617.06–32.27 |
| Offsides | 1.84 | 0.63–3.05 | 0.29–3.39 | 1.71 | 0.55–2.88 | 0.22–3.21 | 3.550.50–6.60 |
| Yellow cards | 1.74 | 0.69–2.80 | 0.42–3.07 | 1.97 | 0.85–3.09 | 0.56–3.38 | 3.710.97–6.45 |
| Red cards | 0.07 | 0.00–0.22 | 0.00–0.37 | 0.11 | 0.00–0.30 | 0.00–0.44 | 0.180.00–0.82 |
| GK saves | 2.28 | 0.87–3.69 | 0.48–4.08 | 2.71 | 1.15–4.26 | 0.72–4.69 | 4.981.20–8.77 |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic
Who wins each stat?
home draw away
Goals
43%
27%
30%
Shots on target
59%
13%
28%
Total shots
72%
22%
Shots in box
74%
18%
Blocked shots
57%
15%
28%
Corners
56%
31%
Fouls
41%
51%
Offsides
42%
22%
36%
Yellow cards
35%
21%
44%
Red cards
84%
GK saves
34%
18%
48%
Model-implied probabilities from the predicted rates (Poisson approximation, teams treated as independent).
Model details — best model per statistic (lgbm, lstm_mlp_multi, lstm_mlp_single, xgb) · snapshot 2b4a317d · computed
| Target | Model / policy | Variant | PCA | MAE | RMSE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWAY_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.415 | 1.901 |
| AWAY_CORNERS | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.978 | 2.516 |
| AWAY_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.945 | 3.863 |
| AWAY_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.554 | 1.986 |
| AWAY_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.860 | 1.106 |
| AWAY_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.163 | 1.495 |
| AWAY_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 64.581 | 82.146 |
| AWAY_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.507 | 5.837 |
| AWAY_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.319 | 7.916 |
| AWAY_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 0.193 | 0.337 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_IN_BOX | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.301 | 3.098 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.707 | 2.176 |
| AWAY_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.378 | 4.309 |
| AWAY_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.120 | 1.410 |
| HOME_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cards_cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.584 | 2.119 |
| HOME_CORNERS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.205 | 2.800 |
| HOME_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.857 | 3.742 |
| HOME_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.414 | 1.804 |
| HOME_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.963 | 1.223 |
| HOME_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.209 | 1.554 |
| HOME_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 65.331 | 82.955 |
| HOME_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.216 | 5.517 |
| HOME_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.318 | 7.914 |
| HOME_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.153 | 0.306 |
| HOME_SHOTS_IN_BOX | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.516 | 3.381 |
| HOME_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.856 | 2.355 |
| HOME_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.703 | 4.734 |
| HOME_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.056 | 1.328 |
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+