La Liga· Regular Season - 22· · Estadio de la Ceramica· referee: not announced
Predicted match statistics
| Stat | Home | safe | safer | Away | safe | safer | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 2.70 | 1.74–3.66 | 1.48–3.92 | 1.08 | 0.22–1.94 | 0.00–2.19 | 3.781.45–6.11 |
| Shots on target | 6.72 | 4.86–8.58 | 4.36–9.07 | 3.23 | 1.52–4.93 | 1.05–5.40 | 9.955.41–14.48 |
| Total shots | 17.53 | 13.83–21.24 | 12.80–22.27 | 8.91 | 5.53–12.29 | 4.60–13.22 | 26.4417.40–35.49 |
| Shots in box | 11.16 | 8.64–13.67 | 7.78–14.54 | 6.64 | 4.34–8.94 | 3.54–9.74 | 17.8011.32–24.27 |
| Blocked shots | 4.46 | 2.87–6.04 | 2.34–6.58 | 2.47 | 1.05–3.88 | 0.57–4.37 | 6.922.91–10.94 |
| Corners | 6.79 | 4.59–9.00 | 3.99–9.59 | 3.73 | 1.75–5.70 | 1.21–6.24 | 10.525.20–15.84 |
| Possession % | 59.49 | 53.18–65.81 | 51.58–67.41 | 41.85 | 35.53–48.17 | 33.94–49.77 | — |
| Passes | 570 | 505–636 | 488–653 | 411 | 347–476 | 329–494 | 982817–1147 |
| Pass accuracy % | 80.35 | 76.14–84.57 | 74.84–85.87 | 70.98 | 66.47–75.48 | 65.14–76.81 | — |
| Fouls | 10.98 | 8.12–13.84 | 7.24–14.72 | 12.62 | 9.68–15.57 | 8.76–16.49 | 23.6016.00–31.21 |
| Offsides | 2.50 | 1.29–3.71 | 0.94–4.05 | 1.74 | 0.58–2.90 | 0.24–3.23 | 4.231.19–7.28 |
| Yellow cards | 1.61 | 0.55–2.67 | 0.28–2.94 | 2.01 | 0.89–3.13 | 0.60–3.42 | 3.620.88–6.36 |
| Red cards | 0.05 | 0.00–0.20 | 0.00–0.35 | 0.12 | 0.00–0.32 | 0.00–0.46 | 0.170.00–0.81 |
| GK saves | 2.07 | 0.66–3.49 | 0.27–3.88 | 4.08 | 2.53–5.63 | 2.09–6.07 | 6.152.36–9.94 |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic
Who wins each stat?
home draw away
Goals
72%
16%
Shots on target
83%
Total shots
95%
Shots in box
83%
Blocked shots
71%
17%
Corners
79%
13%
Fouls
33%
59%
Offsides
55%
19%
27%
Yellow cards
31%
21%
47%
Red cards
85%
GK saves
15%
73%
Model-implied probabilities from the predicted rates (Poisson approximation, teams treated as independent).
Model details — best model per statistic (lgbm, lstm_mlp_multi, lstm_mlp_single, xgb) · snapshot 2b4a317d · computed
| Target | Model / policy | Variant | PCA | MAE | RMSE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWAY_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.415 | 1.901 |
| AWAY_CORNERS | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.978 | 2.516 |
| AWAY_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.945 | 3.863 |
| AWAY_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.554 | 1.986 |
| AWAY_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.860 | 1.106 |
| AWAY_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.163 | 1.495 |
| AWAY_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 64.581 | 82.146 |
| AWAY_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.507 | 5.837 |
| AWAY_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.319 | 7.916 |
| AWAY_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 0.193 | 0.337 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_IN_BOX | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.301 | 3.098 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.707 | 2.176 |
| AWAY_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.378 | 4.309 |
| AWAY_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.120 | 1.410 |
| HOME_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cards_cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.584 | 2.119 |
| HOME_CORNERS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.205 | 2.800 |
| HOME_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.857 | 3.742 |
| HOME_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.414 | 1.804 |
| HOME_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.963 | 1.223 |
| HOME_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.209 | 1.554 |
| HOME_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 65.331 | 82.955 |
| HOME_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.216 | 5.517 |
| HOME_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.318 | 7.914 |
| HOME_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.153 | 0.306 |
| HOME_SHOTS_IN_BOX | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.516 | 3.381 |
| HOME_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.856 | 2.355 |
| HOME_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.703 | 4.734 |
| HOME_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.056 | 1.328 |
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+