La Liga· Regular Season - 25· · referee: not announced
Predicted match statistics
| Stat | Home | safe | safer | Away | safe | safer | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.68 | 0.72–2.65 | 0.46–2.91 | 0.97 | 0.11–1.83 | 0.00–2.08 | 2.650.32–4.98 |
| Shots on target | 5.31 | 3.45–7.17 | 2.96–7.67 | 3.00 | 1.29–4.70 | 0.82–5.17 | 8.313.78–12.84 |
| Total shots | 15.71 | 12.01–19.41 | 10.98–20.44 | 9.32 | 5.94–12.70 | 5.01–13.63 | 25.0315.99–34.07 |
| Shots in box | 10.37 | 7.85–12.89 | 6.99–13.75 | 6.15 | 3.85–8.46 | 3.06–9.25 | 16.5210.04–23.00 |
| Blocked shots | 3.62 | 2.04–5.20 | 1.50–5.74 | 2.60 | 1.19–4.02 | 0.70–4.50 | 6.222.20–10.24 |
| Corners | 6.01 | 3.81–8.22 | 3.21–8.81 | 4.06 | 2.09–6.04 | 1.55–6.58 | 10.084.76–15.39 |
| Possession % | 49.16 | 42.84–55.48 | 41.24–57.07 | 51.93 | 45.61–58.24 | 44.01–59.84 | — |
| Passes | 392 | 327–457 | 309–475 | 448 | 384–513 | 366–530 | 840675–1005 |
| Pass accuracy % | 70.37 | 66.15–74.58 | 64.85–75.89 | 70.25 | 65.74–74.76 | 64.41–76.09 | — |
| Fouls | 12.98 | 10.12–15.84 | 9.24–16.72 | 12.74 | 9.80–15.69 | 8.88–16.61 | 25.7318.12–33.33 |
| Offsides | 2.53 | 1.32–3.74 | 0.97–4.08 | 1.71 | 0.55–2.87 | 0.22–3.21 | 4.241.19–7.29 |
| Yellow cards | 1.85 | 0.79–2.91 | 0.52–3.18 | 2.32 | 1.20–3.44 | 0.91–3.73 | 4.171.43–6.91 |
| Red cards | 0.06 | 0.00–0.21 | 0.00–0.37 | 0.12 | 0.00–0.31 | 0.00–0.45 | 0.180.00–0.82 |
| GK saves | 2.00 | 0.58–3.41 | 0.19–3.80 | 3.30 | 1.75–4.85 | 1.31–5.29 | 5.301.51–9.09 |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic
Who wins each stat?
home draw away
Goals
54%
24%
22%
Shots on target
74%
16%
Total shots
88%
Shots in box
82%
Blocked shots
58%
15%
27%
Corners
68%
22%
Fouls
48%
44%
Offsides
56%
19%
26%
Yellow cards
31%
20%
49%
Red cards
84%
GK saves
21%
15%
63%
Model-implied probabilities from the predicted rates (Poisson approximation, teams treated as independent).
Model details — best model per statistic (lgbm, lstm_mlp_multi, lstm_mlp_single, xgb) · snapshot 2b4a317d · computed
| Target | Model / policy | Variant | PCA | MAE | RMSE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWAY_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.415 | 1.901 |
| AWAY_CORNERS | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.978 | 2.516 |
| AWAY_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.945 | 3.863 |
| AWAY_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.554 | 1.986 |
| AWAY_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.860 | 1.106 |
| AWAY_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.163 | 1.495 |
| AWAY_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 64.581 | 82.146 |
| AWAY_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.507 | 5.837 |
| AWAY_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.319 | 7.916 |
| AWAY_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 0.193 | 0.337 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_IN_BOX | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.301 | 3.098 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.707 | 2.176 |
| AWAY_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.378 | 4.309 |
| AWAY_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.120 | 1.410 |
| HOME_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cards_cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.584 | 2.119 |
| HOME_CORNERS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.205 | 2.800 |
| HOME_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.857 | 3.742 |
| HOME_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.414 | 1.804 |
| HOME_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.963 | 1.223 |
| HOME_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.209 | 1.554 |
| HOME_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 65.331 | 82.955 |
| HOME_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.216 | 5.517 |
| HOME_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.318 | 7.914 |
| HOME_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.153 | 0.306 |
| HOME_SHOTS_IN_BOX | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.516 | 3.381 |
| HOME_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.856 | 2.355 |
| HOME_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.703 | 4.734 |
| HOME_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.056 | 1.328 |
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+