La Liga· Regular Season - 25· · referee: not announced
Predicted match statistics
| Stat | Home | safe | safer | Away | safe | safer | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.33 | 0.37–2.30 | 0.11–2.56 | 1.06 | 0.20–1.92 | 0.00–2.16 | 2.390.06–4.72 |
| Shots on target | 5.13 | 3.27–6.98 | 2.77–7.48 | 3.78 | 2.07–5.48 | 1.60–5.95 | 8.904.37–13.43 |
| Total shots | 14.97 | 11.27–18.67 | 10.24–19.71 | 11.87 | 8.50–15.25 | 7.56–16.18 | 26.8517.80–35.89 |
| Shots in box | 8.54 | 6.03–11.06 | 5.16–11.92 | 7.61 | 5.31–9.91 | 4.51–10.71 | 16.159.67–22.63 |
| Blocked shots | 3.97 | 2.38–5.55 | 1.85–6.09 | 2.68 | 1.26–4.09 | 0.78–4.58 | 6.642.62–10.66 |
| Corners | 5.77 | 3.56–7.97 | 2.97–8.57 | 4.60 | 2.62–6.58 | 2.08–7.11 | 10.365.05–15.68 |
| Possession % | 55.46 | 49.14–61.78 | 47.55–63.38 | 45.48 | 39.17–51.80 | 37.57–53.40 | — |
| Passes | 440 | 375–505 | 357–523 | 342 | 277–406 | 260–424 | 782617–947 |
| Pass accuracy % | 72.15 | 67.94–76.37 | 66.63–77.67 | 66.99 | 62.48–71.50 | 61.15–72.83 | — |
| Fouls | 11.65 | 8.79–14.50 | 7.90–15.39 | 11.95 | 9.01–14.90 | 8.09–15.82 | 23.6015.99–31.21 |
| Offsides | 1.69 | 0.48–2.90 | 0.14–3.24 | 1.63 | 0.47–2.79 | 0.14–3.13 | 3.320.27–6.37 |
| Yellow cards | 1.78 | 0.73–2.84 | 0.46–3.11 | 2.05 | 0.93–3.17 | 0.64–3.46 | 3.841.10–6.57 |
| Red cards | 0.07 | 0.00–0.22 | 0.00–0.37 | 0.10 | 0.00–0.29 | 0.00–0.43 | 0.160.00–0.81 |
| GK saves | 2.18 | 0.77–3.60 | 0.38–3.99 | 3.00 | 1.44–4.55 | 1.01–4.98 | 5.181.39–8.97 |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic
Who wins each stat?
home draw away
Goals
43%
27%
30%
Shots on target
61%
27%
Total shots
69%
24%
Shots in box
54%
36%
Blocked shots
62%
14%
24%
Corners
58%
30%
Fouls
43%
48%
Offsides
40%
23%
37%
Yellow cards
34%
21%
45%
Red cards
85%
GK saves
28%
17%
55%
Model-implied probabilities from the predicted rates (Poisson approximation, teams treated as independent).
Model details — best model per statistic (lgbm, lstm_mlp_multi, lstm_mlp_single, xgb) · snapshot 2b4a317d · computed
| Target | Model / policy | Variant | PCA | MAE | RMSE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWAY_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.415 | 1.901 |
| AWAY_CORNERS | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.978 | 2.516 |
| AWAY_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.945 | 3.863 |
| AWAY_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.554 | 1.986 |
| AWAY_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.860 | 1.106 |
| AWAY_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.163 | 1.495 |
| AWAY_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 64.581 | 82.146 |
| AWAY_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.507 | 5.837 |
| AWAY_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.319 | 7.916 |
| AWAY_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 0.193 | 0.337 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_IN_BOX | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.301 | 3.098 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.707 | 2.176 |
| AWAY_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.378 | 4.309 |
| AWAY_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.120 | 1.410 |
| HOME_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cards_cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.584 | 2.119 |
| HOME_CORNERS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.205 | 2.800 |
| HOME_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.857 | 3.742 |
| HOME_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.414 | 1.804 |
| HOME_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.963 | 1.223 |
| HOME_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.209 | 1.554 |
| HOME_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 65.331 | 82.955 |
| HOME_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.216 | 5.517 |
| HOME_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.318 | 7.914 |
| HOME_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.153 | 0.306 |
| HOME_SHOTS_IN_BOX | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.516 | 3.381 |
| HOME_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.856 | 2.355 |
| HOME_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.703 | 4.734 |
| HOME_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.056 | 1.328 |
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+