La Liga· Regular Season - 26· · referee: not announced
Predicted match statistics
| Stat | Home | safe | safer | Away | safe | safer | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 0.96 | 0.00–1.93 | 0.00–2.19 | 2.46 | 1.60–3.32 | 1.35–3.56 | 3.421.09–5.75 |
| Shots on target | 3.54 | 1.69–5.40 | 1.19–5.90 | 7.48 | 5.77–9.19 | 5.31–9.66 | 11.036.50–15.56 |
| Total shots | 9.14 | 5.44–12.84 | 4.41–13.88 | 17.47 | 14.09–20.85 | 13.16–21.78 | 26.6117.57–35.65 |
| Shots in box | 6.23 | 3.71–8.74 | 2.85–9.61 | 11.56 | 9.26–13.87 | 8.47–14.66 | 17.7911.31–24.27 |
| Blocked shots | 2.78 | 1.20–4.37 | 0.66–4.90 | 4.42 | 3.01–5.84 | 2.52–6.32 | 7.203.19–11.22 |
| Corners | 3.60 | 1.39–5.80 | 0.80–6.40 | 6.60 | 4.62–8.58 | 4.08–9.12 | 10.204.88–15.52 |
| Possession % | 30.49 | 24.17–36.81 | 22.58–38.40 | 69.94 | 63.63–76.26 | 62.03–77.86 | — |
| Passes | 334 | 269–399 | 251–417 | 717 | 652–782 | 635–799 | 1051886–1216 |
| Pass accuracy % | 66.14 | 61.93–70.36 | 60.63–71.66 | 84.19 | 79.68–88.70 | 78.35–90.03 | — |
| Fouls | 10.78 | 7.92–13.63 | 7.03–14.52 | 9.01 | 6.07–11.96 | 5.15–12.88 | 19.7912.18–27.40 |
| Offsides | 3.48 | 2.27–4.69 | 1.93–5.03 | 2.98 | 1.82–4.14 | 1.48–4.47 | 6.463.41–9.51 |
| Yellow cards | 1.71 | 0.65–2.77 | 0.38–3.04 | 1.46 | 0.34–2.58 | 0.05–2.87 | 3.170.43–5.91 |
| Red cards | 0.07 | 0.00–0.22 | 0.00–0.37 | 0.05 | 0.00–0.24 | 0.00–0.38 | 0.110.00–0.75 |
| GK saves | 4.20 | 2.79–5.62 | 2.40–6.01 | 2.47 | 0.91–4.02 | 0.48–4.45 | 6.672.88–10.46 |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic
Who wins each stat?
home draw away
Goals
17%
70%
Shots on target
85%
Total shots
94%
Shots in box
88%
Blocked shots
21%
66%
Corners
13%
78%
Fouls
61%
31%
Offsides
50%
16%
34%
Yellow cards
44%
23%
33%
Red cards
90%
GK saves
68%
19%
Model-implied probabilities from the predicted rates (Poisson approximation, teams treated as independent).
Model details — best model per statistic (lgbm, lstm_mlp_multi, lstm_mlp_single, xgb) · snapshot 2b4a317d · computed
| Target | Model / policy | Variant | PCA | MAE | RMSE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWAY_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.415 | 1.901 |
| AWAY_CORNERS | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.978 | 2.516 |
| AWAY_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.945 | 3.863 |
| AWAY_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.554 | 1.986 |
| AWAY_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.860 | 1.106 |
| AWAY_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.163 | 1.495 |
| AWAY_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 64.581 | 82.146 |
| AWAY_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.507 | 5.837 |
| AWAY_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.319 | 7.916 |
| AWAY_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 0.193 | 0.337 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_IN_BOX | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.301 | 3.098 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.707 | 2.176 |
| AWAY_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.378 | 4.309 |
| AWAY_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.120 | 1.410 |
| HOME_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cards_cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.584 | 2.119 |
| HOME_CORNERS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.205 | 2.800 |
| HOME_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.857 | 3.742 |
| HOME_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.414 | 1.804 |
| HOME_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.963 | 1.223 |
| HOME_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.209 | 1.554 |
| HOME_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 65.331 | 82.955 |
| HOME_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.216 | 5.517 |
| HOME_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.318 | 7.914 |
| HOME_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.153 | 0.306 |
| HOME_SHOTS_IN_BOX | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.516 | 3.381 |
| HOME_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.856 | 2.355 |
| HOME_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.703 | 4.734 |
| HOME_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.056 | 1.328 |
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+