La Liga· Regular Season - 27· · referee: not announced
Predicted match statistics
| Stat | Home | safe | safer | Away | safe | safer | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.12 | 0.16–2.08 | 0.00–2.34 | 1.11 | 0.25–1.97 | 0.01–2.22 | 2.230.00–4.56 |
| Shots on target | 4.65 | 2.80–6.51 | 2.30–7.01 | 3.48 | 1.78–5.19 | 1.31–5.66 | 8.133.60–12.67 |
| Total shots | 13.71 | 10.01–17.42 | 8.98–18.45 | 11.68 | 8.30–15.06 | 7.37–15.99 | 25.3916.35–34.43 |
| Shots in box | 7.82 | 5.30–10.34 | 4.44–11.20 | 7.11 | 4.80–9.41 | 4.01–10.20 | 14.938.45–21.40 |
| Blocked shots | 3.52 | 1.93–5.10 | 1.40–5.64 | 2.68 | 1.27–4.10 | 0.78–4.59 | 6.202.18–10.22 |
| Corners | 5.22 | 3.01–7.42 | 2.42–8.02 | 4.18 | 2.20–6.16 | 1.67–6.70 | 9.404.09–14.72 |
| Possession % | 57.43 | 51.11–63.75 | 49.52–65.34 | 42.19 | 35.87–48.51 | 34.27–50.10 | — |
| Passes | 479 | 414–544 | 396–562 | 367 | 303–432 | 285–450 | 846681–1012 |
| Pass accuracy % | 73.84 | 69.63–78.06 | 68.33–79.36 | 68.17 | 63.66–72.67 | 62.33–74.00 | — |
| Fouls | 10.80 | 7.94–13.66 | 7.06–14.54 | 13.50 | 10.56–16.45 | 9.64–17.37 | 24.3016.70–31.91 |
| Offsides | 1.62 | 0.41–2.83 | 0.07–3.17 | 1.44 | 0.28–2.60 | 0.00–2.94 | 3.060.01–6.11 |
| Yellow cards | 1.88 | 0.83–2.94 | 0.56–3.21 | 2.13 | 1.01–3.25 | 0.72–3.54 | 4.011.27–6.75 |
| Red cards | 0.09 | 0.00–0.24 | 0.00–0.40 | 0.09 | 0.00–0.28 | 0.00–0.42 | 0.180.00–0.82 |
| GK saves | 2.03 | 0.61–3.44 | 0.22–3.83 | 3.04 | 1.48–4.59 | 1.05–5.02 | 5.061.28–8.85 |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic
Who wins each stat?
home draw away
Goals
36%
29%
35%
Shots on target
59%
13%
28%
Total shots
62%
31%
Shots in box
52%
38%
Blocked shots
55%
16%
29%
Corners
57%
31%
Fouls
26%
67%
Offsides
42%
24%
34%
Yellow cards
35%
21%
44%
Red cards
85%
GK saves
25%
17%
59%
Model-implied probabilities from the predicted rates (Poisson approximation, teams treated as independent).
Model details — best model per statistic (lgbm, lstm_mlp_multi, lstm_mlp_single, xgb) · snapshot 2b4a317d · computed
| Target | Model / policy | Variant | PCA | MAE | RMSE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWAY_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.415 | 1.901 |
| AWAY_CORNERS | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.978 | 2.516 |
| AWAY_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.945 | 3.863 |
| AWAY_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.554 | 1.986 |
| AWAY_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.860 | 1.106 |
| AWAY_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.163 | 1.495 |
| AWAY_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 64.581 | 82.146 |
| AWAY_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.507 | 5.837 |
| AWAY_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.319 | 7.916 |
| AWAY_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 0.193 | 0.337 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_IN_BOX | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.301 | 3.098 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.707 | 2.176 |
| AWAY_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.378 | 4.309 |
| AWAY_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.120 | 1.410 |
| HOME_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cards_cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.584 | 2.119 |
| HOME_CORNERS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.205 | 2.800 |
| HOME_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.857 | 3.742 |
| HOME_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.414 | 1.804 |
| HOME_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.963 | 1.223 |
| HOME_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.209 | 1.554 |
| HOME_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 65.331 | 82.955 |
| HOME_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.216 | 5.517 |
| HOME_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.318 | 7.914 |
| HOME_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.153 | 0.306 |
| HOME_SHOTS_IN_BOX | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.516 | 3.381 |
| HOME_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.856 | 2.355 |
| HOME_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.703 | 4.734 |
| HOME_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.056 | 1.328 |
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+