La Liga· Regular Season - 27· · referee: not announced
Predicted match statistics
| Stat | Home | safe | safer | Away | safe | safer | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.43 | 0.47–2.39 | 0.21–2.65 | 1.09 | 0.23–1.95 | 0.00–2.20 | 2.520.19–4.85 |
| Shots on target | 4.53 | 2.68–6.39 | 2.18–6.89 | 3.60 | 1.90–5.31 | 1.43–5.78 | 8.143.60–12.67 |
| Total shots | 13.28 | 9.58–16.99 | 8.55–18.02 | 11.07 | 7.69–14.45 | 6.76–15.38 | 24.3515.31–33.40 |
| Shots in box | 8.42 | 5.91–10.94 | 5.04–11.80 | 6.21 | 3.91–8.51 | 3.11–9.31 | 14.638.16–21.11 |
| Blocked shots | 3.51 | 1.93–5.10 | 1.40–5.63 | 2.39 | 0.97–3.80 | 0.49–4.29 | 5.901.88–9.92 |
| Corners | 4.68 | 2.47–6.88 | 1.88–7.48 | 4.18 | 2.20–6.15 | 1.66–6.69 | 8.853.54–14.17 |
| Possession % | 51.70 | 45.38–58.02 | 43.79–59.62 | 47.20 | 40.88–53.51 | 39.28–55.11 | — |
| Passes | 511 | 445–576 | 428–594 | 430 | 366–495 | 348–513 | 941776–1106 |
| Pass accuracy % | 74.72 | 70.51–78.94 | 69.20–80.24 | 68.31 | 63.80–72.82 | 62.47–74.15 | — |
| Fouls | 12.98 | 10.13–15.84 | 9.24–16.73 | 12.95 | 10.00–15.89 | 9.08–16.81 | 25.9318.32–33.54 |
| Offsides | 1.88 | 0.67–3.09 | 0.32–3.43 | 2.21 | 1.05–3.37 | 0.72–3.71 | 4.091.04–7.14 |
| Yellow cards | 1.89 | 0.83–2.94 | 0.56–3.21 | 2.40 | 1.28–3.52 | 0.99–3.81 | 4.291.55–7.02 |
| Red cards | 0.08 | 0.00–0.23 | 0.00–0.39 | 0.13 | 0.00–0.32 | 0.00–0.46 | 0.210.00–0.85 |
| GK saves | 2.39 | 0.98–3.81 | 0.59–4.20 | 3.06 | 1.51–4.62 | 1.08–5.05 | 5.461.67–9.25 |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic
Who wins each stat?
home draw away
Goals
45%
26%
29%
Shots on target
56%
14%
31%
Total shots
64%
29%
Shots in box
67%
24%
Blocked shots
60%
15%
25%
Corners
50%
13%
37%
Fouls
46%
46%
Offsides
34%
20%
46%
Yellow cards
31%
19%
50%
Red cards
82%
GK saves
30%
17%
53%
Model-implied probabilities from the predicted rates (Poisson approximation, teams treated as independent).
Model details — best model per statistic (lgbm, lstm_mlp_multi, lstm_mlp_single, xgb) · snapshot 2b4a317d · computed
| Target | Model / policy | Variant | PCA | MAE | RMSE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWAY_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.415 | 1.901 |
| AWAY_CORNERS | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.978 | 2.516 |
| AWAY_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.945 | 3.863 |
| AWAY_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.554 | 1.986 |
| AWAY_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.860 | 1.106 |
| AWAY_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.163 | 1.495 |
| AWAY_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 64.581 | 82.146 |
| AWAY_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.507 | 5.837 |
| AWAY_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.319 | 7.916 |
| AWAY_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 0.193 | 0.337 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_IN_BOX | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.301 | 3.098 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.707 | 2.176 |
| AWAY_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.378 | 4.309 |
| AWAY_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.120 | 1.410 |
| HOME_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cards_cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.584 | 2.119 |
| HOME_CORNERS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.205 | 2.800 |
| HOME_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.857 | 3.742 |
| HOME_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.414 | 1.804 |
| HOME_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.963 | 1.223 |
| HOME_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.209 | 1.554 |
| HOME_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 65.331 | 82.955 |
| HOME_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.216 | 5.517 |
| HOME_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.318 | 7.914 |
| HOME_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.153 | 0.306 |
| HOME_SHOTS_IN_BOX | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.516 | 3.381 |
| HOME_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.856 | 2.355 |
| HOME_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.703 | 4.734 |
| HOME_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.056 | 1.328 |
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+