La Liga· Regular Season - 30· · referee: not announced
Predicted match statistics
| Stat | Home | safe | safer | Away | safe | safer | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.16 | 0.20–2.12 | 0.00–2.38 | 1.60 | 0.74–2.45 | 0.49–2.70 | 2.750.42–5.08 |
| Shots on target | 4.30 | 2.44–6.15 | 1.94–6.65 | 5.18 | 3.48–6.89 | 3.01–7.36 | 9.484.95–14.01 |
| Total shots | 13.10 | 9.40–16.81 | 8.37–17.84 | 14.61 | 11.23–17.99 | 10.30–18.92 | 27.7118.67–36.76 |
| Shots in box | 7.95 | 5.43–10.46 | 4.56–11.33 | 9.17 | 6.86–11.47 | 6.07–12.26 | 17.1110.63–23.59 |
| Blocked shots | 3.54 | 1.96–5.13 | 1.42–5.66 | 3.55 | 2.14–4.97 | 1.65–5.46 | 7.103.08–11.12 |
| Corners | 4.77 | 2.57–6.98 | 1.97–7.57 | 5.74 | 3.77–7.72 | 3.23–8.26 | 10.525.20–15.83 |
| Possession % | 44.19 | 37.87–50.51 | 36.28–52.10 | 56.29 | 49.97–62.61 | 48.37–64.21 | — |
| Passes | 418 | 353–483 | 335–501 | 550 | 485–615 | 468–632 | 968803–1133 |
| Pass accuracy % | 70.23 | 66.01–74.45 | 64.71–75.75 | 78.71 | 74.21–83.22 | 72.87–84.55 | — |
| Fouls | 11.37 | 8.51–14.23 | 7.63–15.11 | 11.33 | 8.38–14.27 | 7.46–15.19 | 22.7015.09–30.30 |
| Offsides | 2.11 | 0.90–3.32 | 0.56–3.67 | 1.87 | 0.71–3.03 | 0.38–3.37 | 3.980.94–7.03 |
| Yellow cards | 1.89 | 0.84–2.95 | 0.57–3.22 | 1.87 | 0.75–2.99 | 0.46–3.28 | 3.761.02–6.50 |
| Red cards | 0.07 | 0.00–0.22 | 0.00–0.38 | 0.07 | 0.00–0.26 | 0.00–0.41 | 0.140.00–0.78 |
| GK saves | 3.07 | 1.65–4.48 | 1.26–4.87 | 2.80 | 1.24–4.35 | 0.81–4.78 | 5.862.07–9.65 |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic
Who wins each stat?
home draw away
Goals
28%
25%
47%
Shots on target
32%
55%
Total shots
35%
58%
Shots in box
34%
57%
Blocked shots
42%
15%
43%
Corners
32%
56%
Fouls
46%
45%
Offsides
44%
21%
35%
Yellow cards
40%
21%
39%
Red cards
87%
GK saves
46%
17%
37%
Model-implied probabilities from the predicted rates (Poisson approximation, teams treated as independent).
Model details — best model per statistic (lgbm, lstm_mlp_multi, lstm_mlp_single, xgb) · snapshot 2b4a317d · computed
| Target | Model / policy | Variant | PCA | MAE | RMSE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWAY_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.415 | 1.901 |
| AWAY_CORNERS | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.978 | 2.516 |
| AWAY_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.945 | 3.863 |
| AWAY_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.554 | 1.986 |
| AWAY_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.860 | 1.106 |
| AWAY_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.163 | 1.495 |
| AWAY_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 64.581 | 82.146 |
| AWAY_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.507 | 5.837 |
| AWAY_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.319 | 7.916 |
| AWAY_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 0.193 | 0.337 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_IN_BOX | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.301 | 3.098 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.707 | 2.176 |
| AWAY_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.378 | 4.309 |
| AWAY_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.120 | 1.410 |
| HOME_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cards_cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.584 | 2.119 |
| HOME_CORNERS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.205 | 2.800 |
| HOME_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.857 | 3.742 |
| HOME_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.414 | 1.804 |
| HOME_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.963 | 1.223 |
| HOME_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.209 | 1.554 |
| HOME_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 65.331 | 82.955 |
| HOME_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.216 | 5.517 |
| HOME_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.318 | 7.914 |
| HOME_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.153 | 0.306 |
| HOME_SHOTS_IN_BOX | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.516 | 3.381 |
| HOME_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.856 | 2.355 |
| HOME_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.703 | 4.734 |
| HOME_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.056 | 1.328 |
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+