La Liga· Regular Season - 32· · referee: not announced
Predicted match statistics
| Stat | Home | safe | safer | Away | safe | safer | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.46 | 0.50–2.42 | 0.24–2.68 | 1.15 | 0.29–2.01 | 0.04–2.25 | 2.610.28–4.93 |
| Shots on target | 4.16 | 2.30–6.01 | 1.80–6.51 | 3.74 | 2.03–5.45 | 1.56–5.91 | 7.903.37–12.43 |
| Total shots | 12.24 | 8.53–15.94 | 7.50–16.97 | 10.67 | 7.29–14.05 | 6.36–14.98 | 22.9113.86–31.95 |
| Shots in box | 7.62 | 5.11–10.14 | 4.24–11.00 | 6.64 | 4.34–8.95 | 3.55–9.74 | 14.277.79–20.75 |
| Blocked shots | 3.14 | 1.55–4.72 | 1.02–5.26 | 2.28 | 0.87–3.70 | 0.38–4.18 | 5.421.40–9.44 |
| Corners | 4.39 | 2.19–6.60 | 1.59–7.19 | 3.99 | 2.01–5.97 | 1.48–6.51 | 8.383.07–13.70 |
| Possession % | 55.48 | 49.16–61.79 | 47.56–63.39 | 45.37 | 39.05–51.69 | 37.46–53.29 | — |
| Passes | 501 | 436–567 | 419–584 | 392 | 328–457 | 310–474 | 894729–1059 |
| Pass accuracy % | 74.29 | 70.08–78.51 | 68.77–79.81 | 69.49 | 64.99–74.00 | 63.66–75.33 | — |
| Fouls | 13.26 | 10.40–16.12 | 9.52–17.00 | 13.84 | 10.90–16.79 | 9.98–17.71 | 27.1119.50–34.71 |
| Offsides | 1.91 | 0.70–3.12 | 0.35–3.46 | 2.17 | 1.01–3.34 | 0.68–3.67 | 4.081.03–7.13 |
| Yellow cards | 2.04 | 0.98–3.09 | 0.71–3.36 | 2.35 | 1.23–3.47 | 0.94–3.76 | 4.381.64–7.12 |
| Red cards | 0.15 | 0.00–0.30 | 0.00–0.46 | 0.14 | 0.00–0.33 | 0.00–0.47 | 0.290.00–0.93 |
| GK saves | 2.21 | 0.79–3.62 | 0.40–4.01 | 3.01 | 1.46–4.56 | 1.02–5.00 | 5.221.43–9.00 |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic
Who wins each stat?
home draw away
Goals
44%
26%
30%
Shots on target
49%
14%
37%
Total shots
59%
33%
Shots in box
55%
35%
Blocked shots
56%
17%
28%
Corners
48%
14%
38%
Fouls
42%
51%
Offsides
35%
20%
45%
Yellow cards
35%
20%
46%
Red cards
77%
GK saves
28%
17%
55%
Model-implied probabilities from the predicted rates (Poisson approximation, teams treated as independent).
Model details — best model per statistic (lgbm, lstm_mlp_multi, lstm_mlp_single, xgb) · snapshot 2b4a317d · computed
| Target | Model / policy | Variant | PCA | MAE | RMSE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWAY_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.415 | 1.901 |
| AWAY_CORNERS | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.978 | 2.516 |
| AWAY_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.945 | 3.863 |
| AWAY_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.554 | 1.986 |
| AWAY_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.860 | 1.106 |
| AWAY_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.163 | 1.495 |
| AWAY_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 64.581 | 82.146 |
| AWAY_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.507 | 5.837 |
| AWAY_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.319 | 7.916 |
| AWAY_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 0.193 | 0.337 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_IN_BOX | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.301 | 3.098 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.707 | 2.176 |
| AWAY_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.378 | 4.309 |
| AWAY_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.120 | 1.410 |
| HOME_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cards_cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.584 | 2.119 |
| HOME_CORNERS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.205 | 2.800 |
| HOME_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.857 | 3.742 |
| HOME_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.414 | 1.804 |
| HOME_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.963 | 1.223 |
| HOME_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.209 | 1.554 |
| HOME_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 65.331 | 82.955 |
| HOME_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.216 | 5.517 |
| HOME_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.318 | 7.914 |
| HOME_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.153 | 0.306 |
| HOME_SHOTS_IN_BOX | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.516 | 3.381 |
| HOME_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.856 | 2.355 |
| HOME_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.703 | 4.734 |
| HOME_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.056 | 1.328 |
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+