La Liga· Regular Season - 32· · referee: not announced
Predicted match statistics
| Stat | Home | safe | safer | Away | safe | safer | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 2.25 | 1.29–3.21 | 1.03–3.47 | 1.10 | 0.24–1.96 | 0.00–2.20 | 3.351.02–5.68 |
| Shots on target | 5.97 | 4.12–7.83 | 3.62–8.33 | 3.18 | 1.48–4.89 | 1.01–5.36 | 9.164.63–13.69 |
| Total shots | 16.39 | 12.69–20.09 | 11.66–21.13 | 9.42 | 6.05–12.80 | 5.11–13.73 | 25.8116.77–34.86 |
| Shots in box | 10.95 | 8.43–13.46 | 7.57–14.33 | 7.64 | 5.34–9.94 | 4.54–10.74 | 18.5912.11–25.07 |
| Blocked shots | 4.51 | 2.93–6.09 | 2.39–6.63 | 2.42 | 1.01–3.84 | 0.52–4.32 | 6.932.91–10.95 |
| Corners | 6.69 | 4.49–8.90 | 3.89–9.49 | 3.95 | 1.97–5.93 | 1.44–6.47 | 10.645.33–15.96 |
| Possession % | 57.65 | 51.33–63.97 | 49.74–65.57 | 42.85 | 36.53–49.17 | 34.93–50.77 | — |
| Passes | 548 | 482–613 | 465–631 | 428 | 364–493 | 346–511 | 976811–1141 |
| Pass accuracy % | 71.01 | 66.79–75.23 | 65.49–76.53 | 72.57 | 68.06–77.07 | 66.73–78.40 | — |
| Fouls | 11.95 | 9.09–14.81 | 8.21–15.69 | 11.40 | 8.46–14.35 | 7.54–15.27 | 23.3515.75–30.96 |
| Offsides | 2.23 | 1.02–3.44 | 0.68–3.78 | 1.82 | 0.65–2.98 | 0.32–3.31 | 4.051.00–7.09 |
| Yellow cards | 1.61 | 0.55–2.66 | 0.28–2.93 | 2.02 | 0.90–3.14 | 0.61–3.43 | 3.630.89–6.36 |
| Red cards | 0.04 | 0.00–0.20 | 0.00–0.35 | 0.12 | 0.00–0.31 | 0.00–0.46 | 0.160.00–0.81 |
| GK saves | 2.14 | 0.72–3.55 | 0.33–3.94 | 3.47 | 1.92–5.02 | 1.49–5.46 | 5.611.82–9.40 |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic
Who wins each stat?
home draw away
Goals
63%
19%
17%
Shots on target
78%
13%
Total shots
90%
Shots in box
74%
19%
Blocked shots
73%
16%
Corners
75%
16%
Fouls
50%
41%
Offsides
48%
20%
32%
Yellow cards
31%
21%
48%
Red cards
85%
GK saves
21%
15%
64%
Model-implied probabilities from the predicted rates (Poisson approximation, teams treated as independent).
Model details — best model per statistic (lgbm, lstm_mlp_multi, lstm_mlp_single, xgb) · snapshot 2b4a317d · computed
| Target | Model / policy | Variant | PCA | MAE | RMSE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWAY_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.415 | 1.901 |
| AWAY_CORNERS | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.978 | 2.516 |
| AWAY_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.945 | 3.863 |
| AWAY_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.554 | 1.986 |
| AWAY_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.860 | 1.106 |
| AWAY_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.163 | 1.495 |
| AWAY_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 64.581 | 82.146 |
| AWAY_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.507 | 5.837 |
| AWAY_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.319 | 7.916 |
| AWAY_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 0.193 | 0.337 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_IN_BOX | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.301 | 3.098 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.707 | 2.176 |
| AWAY_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.378 | 4.309 |
| AWAY_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.120 | 1.410 |
| HOME_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cards_cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.584 | 2.119 |
| HOME_CORNERS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.205 | 2.800 |
| HOME_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.857 | 3.742 |
| HOME_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.414 | 1.804 |
| HOME_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.963 | 1.223 |
| HOME_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.209 | 1.554 |
| HOME_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 65.331 | 82.955 |
| HOME_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.216 | 5.517 |
| HOME_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.318 | 7.914 |
| HOME_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.153 | 0.306 |
| HOME_SHOTS_IN_BOX | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.516 | 3.381 |
| HOME_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.856 | 2.355 |
| HOME_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.703 | 4.734 |
| HOME_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.056 | 1.328 |
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+