La Liga· Regular Season - 33· · referee: not announced
Predicted match statistics
| Stat | Home | safe | safer | Away | safe | safer | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 0.99 | 0.03–1.95 | 0.00–2.22 | 1.71 | 0.85–2.57 | 0.60–2.81 | 2.700.37–5.03 |
| Shots on target | 3.52 | 1.67–5.38 | 1.17–5.88 | 5.51 | 3.81–7.22 | 3.34–7.69 | 9.044.50–13.57 |
| Total shots | 11.54 | 7.84–15.25 | 6.81–16.28 | 16.68 | 13.30–20.06 | 12.37–20.99 | 28.2319.18–37.27 |
| Shots in box | 8.04 | 5.52–10.55 | 4.66–11.42 | 10.12 | 7.82–12.43 | 7.03–13.22 | 18.1611.68–24.64 |
| Blocked shots | 3.38 | 1.79–4.96 | 1.26–5.49 | 3.98 | 2.56–5.39 | 2.08–5.88 | 7.353.34–11.37 |
| Corners | 4.14 | 1.94–6.35 | 1.34–6.94 | 5.53 | 3.55–7.50 | 3.01–8.04 | 9.674.35–14.98 |
| Possession % | 37.90 | 31.58–44.22 | 29.98–45.81 | 62.64 | 56.32–68.96 | 54.72–70.55 | — |
| Passes | 318 | 253–383 | 235–401 | 548 | 483–613 | 466–630 | 866701–1031 |
| Pass accuracy % | 63.66 | 59.44–67.87 | 58.14–69.17 | 74.80 | 70.29–79.31 | 68.96–80.64 | — |
| Fouls | 13.71 | 10.85–16.57 | 9.97–17.45 | 10.39 | 7.44–13.33 | 6.53–14.25 | 24.1016.50–31.71 |
| Offsides | 2.30 | 1.09–3.51 | 0.74–3.85 | 1.56 | 0.40–2.72 | 0.07–3.06 | 3.860.81–6.91 |
| Yellow cards | 2.21 | 1.16–3.27 | 0.88–3.54 | 1.55 | 0.43–2.67 | 0.14–2.96 | 3.771.03–6.50 |
| Red cards | 0.08 | 0.00–0.23 | 0.00–0.39 | 0.07 | 0.00–0.26 | 0.00–0.41 | 0.150.00–0.79 |
| GK saves | 3.54 | 2.13–4.96 | 1.74–5.35 | 2.43 | 0.87–3.98 | 0.44–4.41 | 5.972.18–9.76 |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic
Who wins each stat?
home draw away
Goals
22%
24%
54%
Shots on target
20%
69%
Total shots
14%
81%
Shots in box
27%
65%
Blocked shots
34%
15%
51%
Corners
27%
61%
Fouls
72%
22%
Offsides
54%
20%
26%
Yellow cards
53%
20%
27%
Red cards
87%
GK saves
60%
15%
25%
Model-implied probabilities from the predicted rates (Poisson approximation, teams treated as independent).
Model details — best model per statistic (lgbm, lstm_mlp_multi, lstm_mlp_single, xgb) · snapshot 2b4a317d · computed
| Target | Model / policy | Variant | PCA | MAE | RMSE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWAY_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.415 | 1.901 |
| AWAY_CORNERS | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.978 | 2.516 |
| AWAY_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.945 | 3.863 |
| AWAY_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.554 | 1.986 |
| AWAY_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.860 | 1.106 |
| AWAY_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.163 | 1.495 |
| AWAY_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 64.581 | 82.146 |
| AWAY_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.507 | 5.837 |
| AWAY_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.319 | 7.916 |
| AWAY_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 0.193 | 0.337 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_IN_BOX | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.301 | 3.098 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.707 | 2.176 |
| AWAY_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.378 | 4.309 |
| AWAY_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.120 | 1.410 |
| HOME_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cards_cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.584 | 2.119 |
| HOME_CORNERS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.205 | 2.800 |
| HOME_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.857 | 3.742 |
| HOME_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.414 | 1.804 |
| HOME_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.963 | 1.223 |
| HOME_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.209 | 1.554 |
| HOME_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 65.331 | 82.955 |
| HOME_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.216 | 5.517 |
| HOME_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.318 | 7.914 |
| HOME_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.153 | 0.306 |
| HOME_SHOTS_IN_BOX | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.516 | 3.381 |
| HOME_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.856 | 2.355 |
| HOME_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.703 | 4.734 |
| HOME_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.056 | 1.328 |
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+