La Liga· Regular Season - 36· · referee: not announced
Predicted match statistics
| Stat | Home | safe | safer | Away | safe | safer | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.37 | 0.41–2.34 | 0.15–2.60 | 1.08 | 0.22–1.94 | 0.00–2.18 | 2.450.12–4.78 |
| Shots on target | 5.00 | 3.15–6.86 | 2.65–7.36 | 3.23 | 1.52–4.94 | 1.06–5.41 | 8.233.70–12.76 |
| Total shots | 14.69 | 10.98–18.39 | 9.95–19.42 | 10.15 | 6.78–13.53 | 5.84–14.46 | 24.8415.80–33.88 |
| Shots in box | 8.56 | 6.04–11.08 | 5.18–11.94 | 7.00 | 4.69–9.30 | 3.90–10.09 | 15.569.08–22.03 |
| Blocked shots | 3.65 | 2.07–5.23 | 1.53–5.77 | 3.15 | 1.73–4.56 | 1.25–5.05 | 6.802.78–10.82 |
| Corners | 4.97 | 2.76–7.17 | 2.16–7.77 | 4.26 | 2.28–6.24 | 1.74–6.78 | 9.233.91–14.54 |
| Possession % | 49.93 | 43.61–56.25 | 42.01–57.84 | 49.88 | 43.56–56.20 | 41.96–57.80 | — |
| Passes | 440 | 374–505 | 357–523 | 414 | 350–479 | 332–496 | 854689–1019 |
| Pass accuracy % | 72.28 | 68.07–76.50 | 66.76–77.80 | 70.19 | 65.69–74.70 | 64.36–76.03 | — |
| Fouls | 12.96 | 10.11–15.82 | 9.22–16.71 | 12.84 | 9.89–15.78 | 8.97–16.70 | 25.8018.20–33.41 |
| Offsides | 1.87 | 0.66–3.08 | 0.31–3.42 | 1.50 | 0.34–2.66 | 0.01–3.00 | 3.370.32–6.42 |
| Yellow cards | 1.92 | 0.87–2.98 | 0.59–3.25 | 1.80 | 0.68–2.92 | 0.39–3.21 | 3.720.99–6.46 |
| Red cards | 0.06 | 0.00–0.22 | 0.00–0.37 | 0.07 | 0.00–0.26 | 0.00–0.41 | 0.130.00–0.78 |
| GK saves | 2.31 | 0.89–3.72 | 0.50–4.11 | 3.01 | 1.46–4.56 | 1.02–5.00 | 5.321.53–9.11 |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic
Who wins each stat?
home draw away
Goals
44%
27%
29%
Shots on target
67%
21%
Total shots
79%
16%
Shots in box
61%
30%
Blocked shots
50%
15%
35%
Corners
53%
34%
Fouls
47%
45%
Offsides
46%
22%
31%
Yellow cards
42%
21%
37%
Red cards
88%
GK saves
30%
17%
53%
Model-implied probabilities from the predicted rates (Poisson approximation, teams treated as independent).
Model details — best model per statistic (lgbm, lstm_mlp_multi, lstm_mlp_single, xgb) · snapshot 2b4a317d · computed
| Target | Model / policy | Variant | PCA | MAE | RMSE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWAY_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.415 | 1.901 |
| AWAY_CORNERS | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.978 | 2.516 |
| AWAY_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.945 | 3.863 |
| AWAY_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.554 | 1.986 |
| AWAY_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.860 | 1.106 |
| AWAY_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.163 | 1.495 |
| AWAY_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 64.581 | 82.146 |
| AWAY_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.507 | 5.837 |
| AWAY_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.319 | 7.916 |
| AWAY_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 0.193 | 0.337 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_IN_BOX | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.301 | 3.098 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.707 | 2.176 |
| AWAY_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.378 | 4.309 |
| AWAY_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.120 | 1.410 |
| HOME_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cards_cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.584 | 2.119 |
| HOME_CORNERS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.205 | 2.800 |
| HOME_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.857 | 3.742 |
| HOME_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.414 | 1.804 |
| HOME_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.963 | 1.223 |
| HOME_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.209 | 1.554 |
| HOME_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 65.331 | 82.955 |
| HOME_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.216 | 5.517 |
| HOME_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.318 | 7.914 |
| HOME_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.153 | 0.306 |
| HOME_SHOTS_IN_BOX | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.516 | 3.381 |
| HOME_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.856 | 2.355 |
| HOME_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.703 | 4.734 |
| HOME_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.056 | 1.328 |
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+