Predicted match statistics
| Stat | Home | safe | safer | Away | safe | safer | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.84 | 0.88–2.81 | 0.62–3.07 | 1.32 | 0.46–2.18 | 0.22–2.43 | 3.160.84–5.49 |
| Shots on target | 5.74 | 3.88–7.59 | 3.38–8.09 | 4.09 | 2.39–5.80 | 1.92–6.27 | 9.835.30–14.36 |
| Total shots | 15.92 | 12.22–19.63 | 11.19–20.66 | 12.34 | 8.96–15.72 | 8.03–16.65 | 28.2619.22–37.31 |
| Shots in box | 11.67 | 9.16–14.19 | 8.29–15.05 | 8.69 | 6.38–10.99 | 5.59–11.78 | 20.3613.88–26.84 |
| Blocked shots | 4.57 | 2.99–6.16 | 2.45–6.69 | 3.71 | 2.29–5.12 | 1.81–5.61 | 8.284.26–12.30 |
| Corners | 6.08 | 3.87–8.28 | 3.28–8.88 | 4.22 | 2.24–6.20 | 1.70–6.73 | 10.294.98–15.61 |
| Possession % | 54.74 | 48.42–61.06 | 46.83–62.66 | 47.35 | 41.03–53.67 | 39.43–55.27 | — |
| Passes | 506 | 441–572 | 423–589 | 416 | 351–480 | 334–498 | 922757–1087 |
| Pass accuracy % | 71.78 | 67.56–75.99 | 66.26–77.29 | 68.18 | 63.68–72.69 | 62.35–74.02 | — |
| Fouls | 9.10 | 6.25–11.96 | 5.36–12.85 | 9.72 | 6.78–12.67 | 5.86–13.59 | 18.8311.22–26.43 |
| Offsides | 2.10 | 0.89–3.31 | 0.55–3.65 | 1.30 | 0.14–2.46 | 0.00–2.79 | 3.400.35–6.45 |
| Yellow cards | 1.63 | 0.57–2.68 | 0.30–2.95 | 1.95 | 0.83–3.07 | 0.54–3.36 | 3.580.84–6.32 |
| Red cards | 0.04 | 0.00–0.20 | 0.00–0.35 | 0.05 | 0.00–0.25 | 0.00–0.39 | 0.100.00–0.74 |
| GK saves | 2.82 | 1.41–4.24 | 1.02–4.63 | 3.64 | 2.08–5.19 | 1.65–5.62 | 6.462.67–10.25 |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic
Who wins each stat?
home draw away
Goals
50%
23%
28%
Shots on target
64%
25%
Total shots
72%
22%
Shots in box
71%
22%
Blocked shots
55%
14%
32%
Corners
66%
23%
Fouls
40%
51%
Offsides
56%
21%
23%
Yellow cards
33%
22%
46%
Red cards
91%
GK saves
30%
15%
55%
Model-implied probabilities from the predicted rates (Poisson approximation, teams treated as independent).
Model details — best model per statistic (lgbm, lstm_mlp_multi, lstm_mlp_single, xgb) · snapshot 2b4a317d · computed
| Target | Model / policy | Variant | PCA | MAE | RMSE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWAY_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.415 | 1.901 |
| AWAY_CORNERS | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.978 | 2.516 |
| AWAY_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.945 | 3.863 |
| AWAY_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.554 | 1.986 |
| AWAY_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.860 | 1.106 |
| AWAY_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.163 | 1.495 |
| AWAY_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 64.581 | 82.146 |
| AWAY_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.507 | 5.837 |
| AWAY_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.319 | 7.916 |
| AWAY_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 0.193 | 0.337 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_IN_BOX | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.301 | 3.098 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.707 | 2.176 |
| AWAY_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.378 | 4.309 |
| AWAY_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.120 | 1.410 |
| HOME_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cards_cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.584 | 2.119 |
| HOME_CORNERS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.205 | 2.800 |
| HOME_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.857 | 3.742 |
| HOME_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.414 | 1.804 |
| HOME_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.963 | 1.223 |
| HOME_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.209 | 1.554 |
| HOME_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 65.331 | 82.955 |
| HOME_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.216 | 5.517 |
| HOME_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.318 | 7.914 |
| HOME_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.153 | 0.306 |
| HOME_SHOTS_IN_BOX | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.516 | 3.381 |
| HOME_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.856 | 2.355 |
| HOME_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.703 | 4.734 |
| HOME_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.056 | 1.328 |
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+