Bundesliga· Regular Season - 5· · referee: not announced
Predicted match statistics
| Stat | Home | safe | safer | Away | safe | safer | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.14 | 0.18–2.11 | 0.00–2.37 | 1.48 | 0.62–2.33 | 0.37–2.58 | 2.620.29–4.95 |
| Shots on target | 3.98 | 2.13–5.84 | 1.63–6.34 | 4.94 | 3.23–6.64 | 2.76–7.11 | 8.924.39–13.45 |
| Total shots | 12.46 | 8.76–16.16 | 7.73–17.19 | 13.41 | 10.03–16.79 | 9.10–17.72 | 25.8716.82–34.91 |
| Shots in box | 8.45 | 5.93–10.96 | 5.07–11.83 | 8.65 | 6.35–10.96 | 5.56–11.75 | 17.1010.62–23.58 |
| Blocked shots | 3.28 | 1.70–4.87 | 1.17–5.40 | 3.50 | 2.08–4.91 | 1.60–5.40 | 6.782.76–10.80 |
| Corners | 4.17 | 1.97–6.38 | 1.37–6.97 | 5.10 | 3.12–7.07 | 2.58–7.61 | 9.273.95–14.59 |
| Possession % | 39.64 | 33.33–45.96 | 31.73–47.56 | 58.69 | 52.37–65.01 | 50.78–66.61 | — |
| Passes | 344 | 278–409 | 261–427 | 528 | 463–593 | 446–610 | 872707–1037 |
| Pass accuracy % | 73.43 | 69.22–77.65 | 67.92–78.95 | 79.48 | 74.97–83.98 | 73.64–85.31 | — |
| Fouls | 12.82 | 9.96–15.68 | 9.08–16.56 | 9.25 | 6.30–12.19 | 5.38–13.11 | 22.0614.46–29.67 |
| Offsides | 2.02 | 0.81–3.23 | 0.46–3.57 | 2.18 | 1.02–3.35 | 0.69–3.68 | 4.201.15–7.25 |
| Yellow cards | 2.12 | 1.06–3.17 | 0.79–3.45 | 1.96 | 0.84–3.08 | 0.55–3.37 | 4.081.34–6.82 |
| Red cards | 0.03 | 0.00–0.19 | 0.00–0.34 | 0.06 | 0.00–0.25 | 0.00–0.40 | 0.100.00–0.74 |
| GK saves | 3.23 | 1.82–4.65 | 1.43–5.03 | 2.76 | 1.21–4.32 | 0.78–4.75 | 6.002.21–9.79 |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic
Who wins each stat?
home draw away
Goals
29%
26%
45%
Shots on target
31%
56%
Total shots
39%
53%
Shots in box
43%
47%
Blocked shots
39%
16%
45%
Corners
32%
55%
Fouls
74%
19%
Offsides
37%
20%
43%
Yellow cards
43%
20%
37%
Red cards
91%
GK saves
49%
16%
34%
Model-implied probabilities from the predicted rates (Poisson approximation, teams treated as independent).
Model details — best model per statistic (lgbm, lstm_mlp_multi, lstm_mlp_single, xgb) · snapshot 2b4a317d · computed
| Target | Model / policy | Variant | PCA | MAE | RMSE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWAY_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.415 | 1.901 |
| AWAY_CORNERS | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.978 | 2.516 |
| AWAY_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.945 | 3.863 |
| AWAY_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.554 | 1.986 |
| AWAY_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.860 | 1.106 |
| AWAY_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.163 | 1.495 |
| AWAY_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 64.581 | 82.146 |
| AWAY_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.507 | 5.837 |
| AWAY_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.319 | 7.916 |
| AWAY_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 0.193 | 0.337 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_IN_BOX | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.301 | 3.098 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.707 | 2.176 |
| AWAY_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.378 | 4.309 |
| AWAY_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.120 | 1.410 |
| HOME_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cards_cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.584 | 2.119 |
| HOME_CORNERS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.205 | 2.800 |
| HOME_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.857 | 3.742 |
| HOME_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.414 | 1.804 |
| HOME_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.963 | 1.223 |
| HOME_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.209 | 1.554 |
| HOME_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 65.331 | 82.955 |
| HOME_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.216 | 5.517 |
| HOME_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.318 | 7.914 |
| HOME_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.153 | 0.306 |
| HOME_SHOTS_IN_BOX | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.516 | 3.381 |
| HOME_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.856 | 2.355 |
| HOME_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.703 | 4.734 |
| HOME_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.056 | 1.328 |
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+