Bundesliga· Regular Season - 7· · referee: not announced
Predicted match statistics
| Stat | Home | safe | safer | Away | safe | safer | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.93 | 0.97–2.90 | 0.71–3.16 | 1.14 | 0.29–2.00 | 0.04–2.25 | 3.080.75–5.41 |
| Shots on target | 5.18 | 3.32–7.03 | 2.82–7.53 | 3.85 | 2.15–5.56 | 1.68–6.03 | 9.034.50–13.56 |
| Total shots | 14.40 | 10.69–18.10 | 9.66–19.13 | 11.98 | 8.60–15.36 | 7.67–16.29 | 26.3817.33–35.42 |
| Shots in box | 11.15 | 8.63–13.67 | 7.77–14.53 | 7.77 | 5.47–10.07 | 4.67–10.87 | 18.9212.44–25.40 |
| Blocked shots | 4.53 | 2.95–6.12 | 2.42–6.65 | 3.26 | 1.84–4.67 | 1.36–5.16 | 7.793.77–11.81 |
| Corners | 5.77 | 3.56–7.97 | 2.97–8.57 | 4.70 | 2.72–6.68 | 2.18–7.22 | 10.475.15–15.78 |
| Possession % | 54.91 | 48.59–61.23 | 47.00–62.82 | 45.62 | 39.30–51.94 | 37.70–53.53 | — |
| Passes | 522 | 457–588 | 439–605 | 413 | 349–478 | 331–495 | 936770–1101 |
| Pass accuracy % | 68.20 | 63.98–72.41 | 62.68–73.71 | 65.93 | 61.42–70.44 | 60.09–71.77 | — |
| Fouls | 9.82 | 6.96–12.68 | 6.08–13.56 | 8.57 | 5.63–11.52 | 4.71–12.44 | 18.3910.79–26.00 |
| Offsides | 1.95 | 0.74–3.16 | 0.39–3.50 | 1.47 | 0.30–2.63 | 0.00–2.96 | 3.410.37–6.46 |
| Yellow cards | 1.38 | 0.32–2.43 | 0.05–2.70 | 1.76 | 0.64–2.88 | 0.35–3.17 | 3.140.40–5.87 |
| Red cards | 0.04 | 0.00–0.19 | 0.00–0.34 | 0.06 | 0.00–0.25 | 0.00–0.40 | 0.090.00–0.74 |
| GK saves | 3.08 | 1.66–4.49 | 1.27–4.88 | 3.05 | 1.50–4.61 | 1.07–5.04 | 6.132.34–9.92 |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic
Who wins each stat?
home draw away
Goals
56%
22%
22%
Shots on target
61%
27%
Total shots
65%
28%
Shots in box
75%
18%
Blocked shots
61%
13%
26%
Corners
57%
31%
Fouls
57%
34%
Offsides
49%
22%
29%
Yellow cards
30%
23%
47%
Red cards
91%
GK saves
42%
16%
41%
Model-implied probabilities from the predicted rates (Poisson approximation, teams treated as independent).
Model details — best model per statistic (lgbm, lstm_mlp_multi, lstm_mlp_single, xgb) · snapshot 2b4a317d · computed
| Target | Model / policy | Variant | PCA | MAE | RMSE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWAY_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.415 | 1.901 |
| AWAY_CORNERS | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.978 | 2.516 |
| AWAY_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.945 | 3.863 |
| AWAY_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.554 | 1.986 |
| AWAY_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.860 | 1.106 |
| AWAY_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.163 | 1.495 |
| AWAY_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 64.581 | 82.146 |
| AWAY_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.507 | 5.837 |
| AWAY_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.319 | 7.916 |
| AWAY_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 0.193 | 0.337 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_IN_BOX | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.301 | 3.098 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.707 | 2.176 |
| AWAY_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.378 | 4.309 |
| AWAY_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.120 | 1.410 |
| HOME_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cards_cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.584 | 2.119 |
| HOME_CORNERS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.205 | 2.800 |
| HOME_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.857 | 3.742 |
| HOME_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.414 | 1.804 |
| HOME_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.963 | 1.223 |
| HOME_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.209 | 1.554 |
| HOME_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 65.331 | 82.955 |
| HOME_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.216 | 5.517 |
| HOME_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.318 | 7.914 |
| HOME_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.153 | 0.306 |
| HOME_SHOTS_IN_BOX | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.516 | 3.381 |
| HOME_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.856 | 2.355 |
| HOME_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.703 | 4.734 |
| HOME_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.056 | 1.328 |
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+