Bundesliga· Regular Season - 14· · referee: not announced
Predicted match statistics
| Stat | Home | safe | safer | Away | safe | safer | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 2.00 | 1.03–2.96 | 0.77–3.22 | 1.42 | 0.56–2.28 | 0.31–2.52 | 3.421.09–5.75 |
| Shots on target | 5.77 | 3.91–7.63 | 3.41–8.13 | 5.37 | 3.67–7.08 | 3.20–7.55 | 11.146.61–15.67 |
| Total shots | 15.77 | 12.06–19.47 | 11.03–20.50 | 15.11 | 11.73–18.49 | 10.80–19.42 | 30.8721.83–39.92 |
| Shots in box | 10.71 | 8.19–13.22 | 7.32–14.09 | 9.30 | 6.99–11.60 | 6.20–12.39 | 20.0013.52–26.48 |
| Blocked shots | 4.06 | 2.47–5.64 | 1.94–6.18 | 4.00 | 2.58–5.41 | 2.10–5.90 | 8.054.03–12.07 |
| Corners | 5.84 | 3.63–8.04 | 3.04–8.64 | 5.39 | 3.41–7.36 | 2.87–7.90 | 11.225.91–16.54 |
| Possession % | 50.13 | 43.81–56.45 | 42.22–58.05 | 51.24 | 44.92–57.56 | 43.32–59.15 | — |
| Passes | 438 | 373–504 | 356–521 | 449 | 384–513 | 367–531 | 887722–1052 |
| Pass accuracy % | 71.12 | 66.90–75.33 | 65.60–76.63 | 71.85 | 67.34–76.36 | 66.01–77.69 | — |
| Fouls | 9.67 | 6.81–12.52 | 5.92–13.41 | 10.63 | 7.68–13.57 | 6.76–14.49 | 20.2912.69–27.90 |
| Offsides | 1.76 | 0.55–2.97 | 0.21–3.32 | 1.73 | 0.57–2.89 | 0.24–3.23 | 3.490.44–6.54 |
| Yellow cards | 1.59 | 0.54–2.65 | 0.26–2.92 | 1.98 | 0.86–3.10 | 0.57–3.39 | 3.570.83–6.31 |
| Red cards | 0.06 | 0.00–0.21 | 0.00–0.36 | 0.07 | 0.00–0.26 | 0.00–0.40 | 0.120.00–0.77 |
| GK saves | 3.61 | 2.19–5.02 | 1.80–5.41 | 3.24 | 1.68–4.79 | 1.25–5.22 | 6.853.06–10.63 |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic
Who wins each stat?
home draw away
Goals
51%
22%
27%
Shots on target
49%
39%
Total shots
51%
42%
Shots in box
58%
33%
Blocked shots
44%
14%
42%
Corners
49%
39%
Fouls
37%
54%
Offsides
39%
22%
38%
Yellow cards
31%
22%
47%
Red cards
89%
GK saves
48%
15%
37%
Model-implied probabilities from the predicted rates (Poisson approximation, teams treated as independent).
Model details — best model per statistic (lgbm, lstm_mlp_multi, lstm_mlp_single, xgb) · snapshot 2b4a317d · computed
| Target | Model / policy | Variant | PCA | MAE | RMSE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWAY_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.415 | 1.901 |
| AWAY_CORNERS | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.978 | 2.516 |
| AWAY_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.945 | 3.863 |
| AWAY_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.554 | 1.986 |
| AWAY_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.860 | 1.106 |
| AWAY_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.163 | 1.495 |
| AWAY_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 64.581 | 82.146 |
| AWAY_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.507 | 5.837 |
| AWAY_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.319 | 7.916 |
| AWAY_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 0.193 | 0.337 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_IN_BOX | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.301 | 3.098 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.707 | 2.176 |
| AWAY_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.378 | 4.309 |
| AWAY_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.120 | 1.410 |
| HOME_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cards_cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.584 | 2.119 |
| HOME_CORNERS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.205 | 2.800 |
| HOME_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.857 | 3.742 |
| HOME_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.414 | 1.804 |
| HOME_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.963 | 1.223 |
| HOME_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.209 | 1.554 |
| HOME_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 65.331 | 82.955 |
| HOME_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.216 | 5.517 |
| HOME_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.318 | 7.914 |
| HOME_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.153 | 0.306 |
| HOME_SHOTS_IN_BOX | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.516 | 3.381 |
| HOME_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.856 | 2.355 |
| HOME_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.703 | 4.734 |
| HOME_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.056 | 1.328 |
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+