Bundesliga· Regular Season - 14· · referee: not announced
Predicted match statistics
| Stat | Home | safe | safer | Away | safe | safer | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.49 | 0.53–2.45 | 0.27–2.71 | 1.89 | 1.03–2.75 | 0.78–3.00 | 3.381.05–5.71 |
| Shots on target | 4.69 | 2.83–6.54 | 2.33–7.04 | 5.93 | 4.23–7.64 | 3.76–8.11 | 10.626.09–15.15 |
| Total shots | 13.51 | 9.80–17.21 | 8.77–18.24 | 15.64 | 12.26–19.02 | 11.33–19.95 | 29.1520.10–38.19 |
| Shots in box | 9.78 | 7.26–12.29 | 6.40–13.16 | 10.52 | 8.21–12.82 | 7.42–13.61 | 20.2913.81–26.77 |
| Blocked shots | 4.02 | 2.44–5.60 | 1.90–6.14 | 3.53 | 2.11–4.94 | 1.63–5.43 | 7.553.53–11.57 |
| Corners | 5.02 | 2.82–7.23 | 2.22–7.82 | 5.39 | 3.41–7.37 | 2.88–7.91 | 10.415.10–15.73 |
| Possession % | 48.98 | 42.66–55.30 | 41.07–56.90 | 50.41 | 44.09–56.73 | 42.49–58.32 | — |
| Passes | 435 | 370–501 | 353–518 | 450 | 386–515 | 368–532 | 886721–1051 |
| Pass accuracy % | 67.30 | 63.08–71.51 | 61.78–72.81 | 71.71 | 67.21–76.22 | 65.88–77.55 | — |
| Fouls | 10.12 | 7.27–12.98 | 6.38–13.87 | 11.15 | 8.20–14.09 | 7.28–15.01 | 21.2713.66–28.88 |
| Offsides | 1.70 | 0.49–2.91 | 0.14–3.25 | 2.06 | 0.90–3.23 | 0.57–3.56 | 3.760.71–6.81 |
| Yellow cards | 1.61 | 0.56–2.67 | 0.28–2.94 | 1.82 | 0.70–2.94 | 0.41–3.23 | 3.430.69–6.17 |
| Red cards | 0.04 | 0.00–0.19 | 0.00–0.35 | 0.06 | 0.00–0.26 | 0.00–0.40 | 0.110.00–0.75 |
| GK saves | 3.68 | 2.27–5.10 | 1.88–5.48 | 3.11 | 1.56–4.66 | 1.12–5.10 | 6.793.00–10.58 |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic
Who wins each stat?
home draw away
Goals
31%
22%
47%
Shots on target
29%
59%
Total shots
31%
62%
Shots in box
39%
52%
Blocked shots
50%
15%
36%
Corners
39%
48%
Fouls
37%
54%
Offsides
32%
21%
47%
Yellow cards
35%
22%
43%
Red cards
90%
GK saves
51%
15%
34%
Model-implied probabilities from the predicted rates (Poisson approximation, teams treated as independent).
Model details — best model per statistic (lgbm, lstm_mlp_multi, lstm_mlp_single, xgb) · snapshot 2b4a317d · computed
| Target | Model / policy | Variant | PCA | MAE | RMSE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWAY_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.415 | 1.901 |
| AWAY_CORNERS | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.978 | 2.516 |
| AWAY_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.945 | 3.863 |
| AWAY_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.554 | 1.986 |
| AWAY_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.860 | 1.106 |
| AWAY_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.163 | 1.495 |
| AWAY_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 64.581 | 82.146 |
| AWAY_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.507 | 5.837 |
| AWAY_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.319 | 7.916 |
| AWAY_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 0.193 | 0.337 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_IN_BOX | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.301 | 3.098 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.707 | 2.176 |
| AWAY_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.378 | 4.309 |
| AWAY_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.120 | 1.410 |
| HOME_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cards_cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.584 | 2.119 |
| HOME_CORNERS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.205 | 2.800 |
| HOME_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.857 | 3.742 |
| HOME_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.414 | 1.804 |
| HOME_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.963 | 1.223 |
| HOME_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.209 | 1.554 |
| HOME_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 65.331 | 82.955 |
| HOME_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.216 | 5.517 |
| HOME_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.318 | 7.914 |
| HOME_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.153 | 0.306 |
| HOME_SHOTS_IN_BOX | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.516 | 3.381 |
| HOME_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.856 | 2.355 |
| HOME_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.703 | 4.734 |
| HOME_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.056 | 1.328 |
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+