Bundesliga· Regular Season - 14· · referee: not announced
Predicted match statistics
| Stat | Home | safe | safer | Away | safe | safer | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.82 | 0.86–2.78 | 0.60–3.04 | 1.21 | 0.35–2.07 | 0.11–2.32 | 3.030.70–5.36 |
| Shots on target | 5.83 | 3.98–7.69 | 3.48–8.19 | 4.06 | 2.35–5.76 | 1.88–6.23 | 9.895.36–14.42 |
| Total shots | 15.71 | 12.01–19.41 | 10.97–20.44 | 11.90 | 8.52–15.28 | 7.59–16.21 | 27.6118.57–36.65 |
| Shots in box | 11.02 | 8.50–13.53 | 7.64–14.40 | 8.03 | 5.73–10.33 | 4.93–11.13 | 19.0512.57–25.53 |
| Blocked shots | 4.28 | 2.69–5.86 | 2.16–6.40 | 3.09 | 1.68–4.51 | 1.19–4.99 | 7.373.35–11.39 |
| Corners | 6.01 | 3.80–8.21 | 3.21–8.81 | 5.10 | 3.12–7.07 | 2.58–7.61 | 11.105.79–16.42 |
| Possession % | 55.25 | 48.94–61.57 | 47.34–63.17 | 46.85 | 40.54–53.17 | 38.94–54.77 | — |
| Passes | 498 | 432–563 | 415–581 | 396 | 331–461 | 314–478 | 894729–1059 |
| Pass accuracy % | 72.09 | 67.87–76.30 | 66.57–77.60 | 67.81 | 63.30–72.31 | 61.97–73.64 | — |
| Fouls | 10.83 | 7.97–13.69 | 7.09–14.57 | 11.74 | 8.80–14.69 | 7.88–15.61 | 22.5714.97–30.18 |
| Offsides | 1.49 | 0.28–2.70 | 0.00–3.04 | 1.82 | 0.65–2.98 | 0.32–3.31 | 3.300.25–6.35 |
| Yellow cards | 1.37 | 0.31–2.43 | 0.04–2.70 | 1.99 | 0.87–3.11 | 0.58–3.41 | 3.360.63–6.10 |
| Red cards | 0.03 | 0.00–0.18 | 0.00–0.34 | 0.05 | 0.00–0.24 | 0.00–0.39 | 0.080.00–0.73 |
| GK saves | 2.85 | 1.44–4.27 | 1.05–4.66 | 3.68 | 2.13–5.23 | 1.69–5.67 | 6.542.75–10.32 |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic
Who wins each stat?
home draw away
Goals
52%
23%
25%
Shots on target
66%
23%
Total shots
74%
21%
Shots in box
72%
21%
Blocked shots
60%
14%
27%
Corners
55%
33%
Fouls
38%
53%
Offsides
32%
23%
46%
Yellow cards
26%
22%
52%
Red cards
92%
GK saves
30%
15%
55%
Model-implied probabilities from the predicted rates (Poisson approximation, teams treated as independent).
Model details — best model per statistic (lgbm, lstm_mlp_multi, lstm_mlp_single, xgb) · snapshot 2b4a317d · computed
| Target | Model / policy | Variant | PCA | MAE | RMSE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWAY_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.415 | 1.901 |
| AWAY_CORNERS | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.978 | 2.516 |
| AWAY_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.945 | 3.863 |
| AWAY_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.554 | 1.986 |
| AWAY_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.860 | 1.106 |
| AWAY_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.163 | 1.495 |
| AWAY_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 64.581 | 82.146 |
| AWAY_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.507 | 5.837 |
| AWAY_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.319 | 7.916 |
| AWAY_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 0.193 | 0.337 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_IN_BOX | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.301 | 3.098 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.707 | 2.176 |
| AWAY_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.378 | 4.309 |
| AWAY_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.120 | 1.410 |
| HOME_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cards_cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.584 | 2.119 |
| HOME_CORNERS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.205 | 2.800 |
| HOME_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.857 | 3.742 |
| HOME_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.414 | 1.804 |
| HOME_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.963 | 1.223 |
| HOME_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.209 | 1.554 |
| HOME_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 65.331 | 82.955 |
| HOME_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.216 | 5.517 |
| HOME_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.318 | 7.914 |
| HOME_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.153 | 0.306 |
| HOME_SHOTS_IN_BOX | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.516 | 3.381 |
| HOME_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.856 | 2.355 |
| HOME_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.703 | 4.734 |
| HOME_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.056 | 1.328 |
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+