Bundesliga· Regular Season - 18· · referee: not announced
Predicted match statistics
| Stat | Home | safe | safer | Away | safe | safer | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.17 | 0.21–2.14 | 0.00–2.40 | 2.25 | 1.39–3.11 | 1.15–3.36 | 3.431.10–5.76 |
| Shots on target | 3.70 | 1.84–5.55 | 1.34–6.05 | 7.23 | 5.52–8.93 | 5.05–9.40 | 10.926.39–15.46 |
| Total shots | 10.85 | 7.15–14.56 | 6.12–15.59 | 16.93 | 13.55–20.31 | 12.62–21.24 | 27.7918.74–36.83 |
| Shots in box | 7.63 | 5.11–10.14 | 4.24–11.01 | 12.69 | 10.39–14.99 | 9.59–15.79 | 20.3213.84–26.80 |
| Blocked shots | 3.42 | 1.84–5.01 | 1.30–5.54 | 4.60 | 3.19–6.02 | 2.70–6.51 | 8.034.01–12.05 |
| Corners | 3.94 | 1.74–6.15 | 1.14–6.74 | 6.55 | 4.57–8.53 | 4.03–9.07 | 10.495.17–15.81 |
| Possession % | 36.33 | 30.01–42.65 | 28.41–44.24 | 62.95 | 56.63–69.27 | 55.03–70.86 | — |
| Passes | 400 | 335–466 | 317–483 | 636 | 571–700 | 554–718 | 1036871–1201 |
| Pass accuracy % | 75.25 | 71.04–79.47 | 69.74–80.77 | 84.07 | 79.56–88.58 | 78.23–89.91 | — |
| Fouls | 10.01 | 7.15–12.87 | 6.27–13.75 | 9.33 | 6.39–12.28 | 5.47–13.19 | 19.3411.73–26.94 |
| Offsides | 2.29 | 1.08–3.50 | 0.74–3.85 | 2.01 | 0.85–3.17 | 0.51–3.50 | 4.301.25–7.35 |
| Yellow cards | 1.92 | 0.86–2.98 | 0.59–3.25 | 1.53 | 0.41–2.65 | 0.12–2.94 | 3.450.71–6.19 |
| Red cards | 0.04 | 0.00–0.20 | 0.00–0.35 | 0.05 | 0.00–0.24 | 0.00–0.38 | 0.090.00–0.73 |
| GK saves | 4.16 | 2.74–5.57 | 2.35–5.96 | 2.50 | 0.94–4.05 | 0.51–4.48 | 6.652.86–10.44 |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic
Who wins each stat?
home draw away
Goals
19%
19%
62%
Shots on target
82%
Total shots
86%
Shots in box
85%
Blocked shots
27%
13%
59%
Corners
17%
74%
Fouls
52%
39%
Offsides
45%
20%
35%
Yellow cards
47%
22%
31%
Red cards
91%
GK saves
67%
13%
20%
Model-implied probabilities from the predicted rates (Poisson approximation, teams treated as independent).
Model details — best model per statistic (lgbm, lstm_mlp_multi, lstm_mlp_single, xgb) · snapshot 2b4a317d · computed
| Target | Model / policy | Variant | PCA | MAE | RMSE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWAY_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.415 | 1.901 |
| AWAY_CORNERS | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.978 | 2.516 |
| AWAY_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.945 | 3.863 |
| AWAY_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.554 | 1.986 |
| AWAY_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.860 | 1.106 |
| AWAY_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.163 | 1.495 |
| AWAY_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 64.581 | 82.146 |
| AWAY_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.507 | 5.837 |
| AWAY_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.319 | 7.916 |
| AWAY_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 0.193 | 0.337 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_IN_BOX | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.301 | 3.098 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.707 | 2.176 |
| AWAY_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.378 | 4.309 |
| AWAY_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.120 | 1.410 |
| HOME_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cards_cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.584 | 2.119 |
| HOME_CORNERS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.205 | 2.800 |
| HOME_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.857 | 3.742 |
| HOME_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.414 | 1.804 |
| HOME_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.963 | 1.223 |
| HOME_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.209 | 1.554 |
| HOME_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 65.331 | 82.955 |
| HOME_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.216 | 5.517 |
| HOME_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.318 | 7.914 |
| HOME_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.153 | 0.306 |
| HOME_SHOTS_IN_BOX | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.516 | 3.381 |
| HOME_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.856 | 2.355 |
| HOME_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.703 | 4.734 |
| HOME_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.056 | 1.328 |
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+