Bundesliga· Regular Season - 18· · referee: not announced
Predicted match statistics
| Stat | Home | safe | safer | Away | safe | safer | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.49 | 0.53–2.46 | 0.27–2.72 | 2.13 | 1.27–2.99 | 1.02–3.24 | 3.621.29–5.95 |
| Shots on target | 5.19 | 3.33–7.05 | 2.83–7.54 | 6.28 | 4.57–7.99 | 4.10–8.45 | 11.476.94–16.00 |
| Total shots | 13.30 | 9.60–17.01 | 8.57–18.04 | 17.25 | 13.87–20.63 | 12.94–21.56 | 30.5521.51–39.60 |
| Shots in box | 9.28 | 6.76–11.79 | 5.90–12.66 | 11.37 | 9.07–13.68 | 8.28–14.47 | 20.6514.17–27.13 |
| Blocked shots | 3.54 | 1.96–5.12 | 1.42–5.66 | 4.07 | 2.66–5.49 | 2.17–5.97 | 7.613.59–11.63 |
| Corners | 4.31 | 2.11–6.52 | 1.51–7.11 | 5.73 | 3.75–7.71 | 3.21–8.25 | 10.044.73–15.36 |
| Possession % | 42.90 | 36.59–49.22 | 34.99–50.82 | 57.48 | 51.16–63.80 | 49.57–65.40 | — |
| Passes | 391 | 326–456 | 308–474 | 517 | 452–581 | 434–599 | 908743–1073 |
| Pass accuracy % | 72.66 | 68.44–76.87 | 67.14–78.17 | 79.54 | 75.03–84.05 | 73.70–85.38 | — |
| Fouls | 10.69 | 7.84–13.55 | 6.95–14.44 | 9.30 | 6.36–12.25 | 5.44–13.17 | 20.0012.39–27.60 |
| Offsides | 2.74 | 1.53–3.95 | 1.19–4.30 | 1.38 | 0.22–2.54 | 0.00–2.87 | 4.121.07–7.17 |
| Yellow cards | 1.61 | 0.56–2.67 | 0.29–2.94 | 1.67 | 0.55–2.79 | 0.26–3.08 | 3.280.54–6.02 |
| Red cards | 0.04 | 0.00–0.19 | 0.00–0.34 | 0.08 | 0.00–0.28 | 0.00–0.42 | 0.120.00–0.76 |
| GK saves | 4.11 | 2.70–5.53 | 2.31–5.92 | 2.88 | 1.33–4.43 | 0.89–4.87 | 6.993.21–10.78 |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic
Who wins each stat?
home draw away
Goals
27%
21%
52%
Shots on target
32%
57%
Total shots
21%
73%
Shots in box
28%
64%
Blocked shots
35%
14%
50%
Corners
27%
61%
Fouls
58%
34%
Offsides
66%
17%
17%
Yellow cards
37%
23%
40%
Red cards
89%
GK saves
61%
14%
25%
Model-implied probabilities from the predicted rates (Poisson approximation, teams treated as independent).
Model details — best model per statistic (lgbm, lstm_mlp_multi, lstm_mlp_single, xgb) · snapshot 2b4a317d · computed
| Target | Model / policy | Variant | PCA | MAE | RMSE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWAY_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.415 | 1.901 |
| AWAY_CORNERS | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.978 | 2.516 |
| AWAY_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.945 | 3.863 |
| AWAY_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.554 | 1.986 |
| AWAY_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.860 | 1.106 |
| AWAY_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.163 | 1.495 |
| AWAY_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 64.581 | 82.146 |
| AWAY_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.507 | 5.837 |
| AWAY_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.319 | 7.916 |
| AWAY_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 0.193 | 0.337 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_IN_BOX | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.301 | 3.098 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.707 | 2.176 |
| AWAY_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.378 | 4.309 |
| AWAY_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.120 | 1.410 |
| HOME_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cards_cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.584 | 2.119 |
| HOME_CORNERS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.205 | 2.800 |
| HOME_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.857 | 3.742 |
| HOME_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.414 | 1.804 |
| HOME_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.963 | 1.223 |
| HOME_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.209 | 1.554 |
| HOME_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 65.331 | 82.955 |
| HOME_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.216 | 5.517 |
| HOME_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.318 | 7.914 |
| HOME_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.153 | 0.306 |
| HOME_SHOTS_IN_BOX | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.516 | 3.381 |
| HOME_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.856 | 2.355 |
| HOME_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.703 | 4.734 |
| HOME_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.056 | 1.328 |
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+