Bundesliga· Regular Season - 19· · referee: not announced
Predicted match statistics
| Stat | Home | safe | safer | Away | safe | safer | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 2.04 | 1.08–3.00 | 0.82–3.26 | 2.03 | 1.17–2.88 | 0.92–3.13 | 4.071.74–6.40 |
| Shots on target | 5.32 | 3.47–7.18 | 2.97–7.68 | 6.12 | 4.41–7.83 | 3.95–8.30 | 11.456.91–15.98 |
| Total shots | 15.44 | 11.74–19.14 | 10.71–20.18 | 16.25 | 12.88–19.63 | 11.95–20.56 | 31.7022.65–40.74 |
| Shots in box | 10.85 | 8.33–13.36 | 7.47–14.23 | 11.48 | 9.18–13.79 | 8.39–14.58 | 22.3315.85–28.81 |
| Blocked shots | 4.04 | 2.46–5.63 | 1.92–6.16 | 3.87 | 2.45–5.28 | 1.97–5.77 | 7.913.89–11.93 |
| Corners | 5.28 | 3.08–7.49 | 2.48–8.08 | 5.61 | 3.63–7.59 | 3.09–8.12 | 10.895.57–16.21 |
| Possession % | 50.49 | 44.17–56.81 | 42.58–58.40 | 48.36 | 42.04–54.68 | 40.45–56.28 | — |
| Passes | 466 | 401–531 | 383–549 | 445 | 380–509 | 362–527 | 911746–1076 |
| Pass accuracy % | 70.38 | 66.17–74.60 | 64.87–75.90 | 72.88 | 68.37–77.39 | 67.04–78.72 | — |
| Fouls | 10.89 | 8.03–13.74 | 7.14–14.63 | 11.54 | 8.59–14.48 | 7.68–15.40 | 22.4214.82–30.03 |
| Offsides | 1.36 | 0.15–2.57 | 0.00–2.92 | 1.91 | 0.75–3.07 | 0.41–3.40 | 3.270.22–6.32 |
| Yellow cards | 1.47 | 0.42–2.53 | 0.14–2.80 | 1.65 | 0.53–2.77 | 0.24–3.06 | 3.120.38–5.86 |
| Red cards | 0.03 | 0.00–0.18 | 0.00–0.34 | 0.05 | 0.00–0.24 | 0.00–0.39 | 0.080.00–0.73 |
| GK saves | 3.84 | 2.43–5.26 | 2.04–5.65 | 3.32 | 1.77–4.88 | 1.34–5.31 | 7.173.38–10.96 |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic
Who wins each stat?
home draw away
Goals
40%
21%
39%
Shots on target
35%
53%
Total shots
41%
52%
Shots in box
40%
51%
Blocked shots
45%
14%
40%
Corners
40%
48%
Fouls
40%
51%
Offsides
27%
22%
50%
Yellow cards
34%
24%
42%
Red cards
92%
GK saves
50%
15%
35%
Model-implied probabilities from the predicted rates (Poisson approximation, teams treated as independent).
Model details — best model per statistic (lgbm, lstm_mlp_multi, lstm_mlp_single, xgb) · snapshot 2b4a317d · computed
| Target | Model / policy | Variant | PCA | MAE | RMSE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWAY_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.415 | 1.901 |
| AWAY_CORNERS | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.978 | 2.516 |
| AWAY_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.945 | 3.863 |
| AWAY_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.554 | 1.986 |
| AWAY_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.860 | 1.106 |
| AWAY_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.163 | 1.495 |
| AWAY_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 64.581 | 82.146 |
| AWAY_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.507 | 5.837 |
| AWAY_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.319 | 7.916 |
| AWAY_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 0.193 | 0.337 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_IN_BOX | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.301 | 3.098 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.707 | 2.176 |
| AWAY_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.378 | 4.309 |
| AWAY_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.120 | 1.410 |
| HOME_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cards_cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.584 | 2.119 |
| HOME_CORNERS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.205 | 2.800 |
| HOME_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.857 | 3.742 |
| HOME_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.414 | 1.804 |
| HOME_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.963 | 1.223 |
| HOME_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.209 | 1.554 |
| HOME_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 65.331 | 82.955 |
| HOME_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.216 | 5.517 |
| HOME_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.318 | 7.914 |
| HOME_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.153 | 0.306 |
| HOME_SHOTS_IN_BOX | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.516 | 3.381 |
| HOME_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.856 | 2.355 |
| HOME_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.703 | 4.734 |
| HOME_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.056 | 1.328 |
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+