Bundesliga· Regular Season - 20· · referee: not announced
Predicted match statistics
| Stat | Home | safe | safer | Away | safe | safer | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.93 | 0.96–2.89 | 0.70–3.15 | 1.44 | 0.58–2.30 | 0.33–2.54 | 3.361.03–5.69 |
| Shots on target | 5.67 | 3.82–7.53 | 3.32–8.03 | 4.72 | 3.01–6.42 | 2.54–6.89 | 10.395.86–14.92 |
| Total shots | 15.91 | 12.20–19.61 | 11.17–20.64 | 13.01 | 9.63–16.39 | 8.70–17.32 | 28.9219.87–37.96 |
| Shots in box | 11.28 | 8.76–13.79 | 7.90–14.66 | 9.23 | 6.93–11.53 | 6.13–12.33 | 20.5114.03–26.99 |
| Blocked shots | 4.47 | 2.89–6.06 | 2.35–6.59 | 3.87 | 2.45–5.28 | 1.96–5.77 | 8.344.32–12.36 |
| Corners | 5.92 | 3.71–8.12 | 3.12–8.72 | 4.98 | 3.00–6.96 | 2.47–7.50 | 10.905.59–16.22 |
| Possession % | 56.92 | 50.61–63.24 | 49.01–64.84 | 43.00 | 36.68–49.32 | 35.09–50.92 | — |
| Passes | 529 | 464–595 | 446–612 | 399 | 335–464 | 317–481 | 928763–1094 |
| Pass accuracy % | 78.04 | 73.82–82.25 | 72.52–83.55 | 71.94 | 67.44–76.45 | 66.11–77.78 | — |
| Fouls | 9.90 | 7.04–12.75 | 6.15–13.64 | 11.06 | 8.12–14.01 | 7.20–14.93 | 20.9613.36–28.57 |
| Offsides | 1.75 | 0.54–2.96 | 0.20–3.30 | 1.76 | 0.60–2.92 | 0.27–3.26 | 3.510.46–6.56 |
| Yellow cards | 1.48 | 0.42–2.53 | 0.15–2.80 | 1.91 | 0.79–3.03 | 0.50–3.32 | 3.390.65–6.12 |
| Red cards | 0.03 | 0.00–0.19 | 0.00–0.34 | 0.07 | 0.00–0.26 | 0.00–0.40 | 0.100.00–0.74 |
| GK saves | 2.84 | 1.42–4.25 | 1.04–4.64 | 3.21 | 1.66–4.77 | 1.23–5.20 | 6.052.26–9.84 |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic
Who wins each stat?
home draw away
Goals
49%
22%
29%
Shots on target
56%
32%
Total shots
67%
26%
Shots in box
63%
29%
Blocked shots
51%
14%
35%
Corners
55%
33%
Fouls
36%
56%
Offsides
39%
22%
39%
Yellow cards
30%
22%
48%
Red cards
91%
GK saves
36%
16%
48%
Model-implied probabilities from the predicted rates (Poisson approximation, teams treated as independent).
Model details — best model per statistic (lgbm, lstm_mlp_multi, lstm_mlp_single, xgb) · snapshot 2b4a317d · computed
| Target | Model / policy | Variant | PCA | MAE | RMSE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWAY_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.415 | 1.901 |
| AWAY_CORNERS | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.978 | 2.516 |
| AWAY_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.945 | 3.863 |
| AWAY_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.554 | 1.986 |
| AWAY_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.860 | 1.106 |
| AWAY_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.163 | 1.495 |
| AWAY_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 64.581 | 82.146 |
| AWAY_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.507 | 5.837 |
| AWAY_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.319 | 7.916 |
| AWAY_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 0.193 | 0.337 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_IN_BOX | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.301 | 3.098 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.707 | 2.176 |
| AWAY_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.378 | 4.309 |
| AWAY_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.120 | 1.410 |
| HOME_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cards_cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.584 | 2.119 |
| HOME_CORNERS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.205 | 2.800 |
| HOME_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.857 | 3.742 |
| HOME_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.414 | 1.804 |
| HOME_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.963 | 1.223 |
| HOME_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.209 | 1.554 |
| HOME_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 65.331 | 82.955 |
| HOME_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.216 | 5.517 |
| HOME_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.318 | 7.914 |
| HOME_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.153 | 0.306 |
| HOME_SHOTS_IN_BOX | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.516 | 3.381 |
| HOME_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.856 | 2.355 |
| HOME_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.703 | 4.734 |
| HOME_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.056 | 1.328 |
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+