Bundesliga· Regular Season - 20· · referee: not announced
Predicted match statistics
| Stat | Home | safe | safer | Away | safe | safer | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.00 | 0.04–1.96 | 0.00–2.22 | 2.40 | 1.54–3.26 | 1.30–3.51 | 3.401.08–5.73 |
| Shots on target | 3.82 | 1.96–5.67 | 1.46–6.17 | 7.21 | 5.51–8.92 | 5.04–9.39 | 11.036.50–15.56 |
| Total shots | 9.78 | 6.08–13.49 | 5.05–14.52 | 19.45 | 16.07–22.83 | 15.14–23.76 | 29.2420.19–38.28 |
| Shots in box | 6.89 | 4.38–9.41 | 3.51–10.27 | 13.22 | 10.92–15.52 | 10.12–16.32 | 20.1213.64–26.60 |
| Blocked shots | 2.74 | 1.16–4.32 | 0.62–4.86 | 4.41 | 3.00–5.83 | 2.51–6.31 | 7.153.13–11.17 |
| Corners | 3.11 | 0.90–5.31 | 0.31–5.91 | 6.80 | 4.82–8.78 | 4.29–9.32 | 9.914.59–15.23 |
| Possession % | 34.54 | 28.22–40.86 | 26.63–42.45 | 63.11 | 56.80–69.43 | 55.20–71.03 | — |
| Passes | 330 | 264–395 | 247–413 | 589 | 525–654 | 507–671 | 919754–1084 |
| Pass accuracy % | 65.49 | 61.28–69.71 | 59.97–71.01 | 81.50 | 76.99–86.00 | 75.66–87.33 | — |
| Fouls | 11.61 | 8.76–14.47 | 7.87–15.36 | 9.68 | 6.73–12.62 | 5.82–13.54 | 21.2913.69–28.90 |
| Offsides | 2.54 | 1.33–3.75 | 0.99–4.10 | 1.76 | 0.59–2.92 | 0.26–3.25 | 4.301.25–7.35 |
| Yellow cards | 2.04 | 0.98–3.10 | 0.71–3.37 | 1.46 | 0.34–2.58 | 0.05–2.87 | 3.500.77–6.24 |
| Red cards | 0.06 | 0.00–0.21 | 0.00–0.36 | 0.07 | 0.00–0.26 | 0.00–0.40 | 0.120.00–0.77 |
| GK saves | 4.60 | 3.18–6.01 | 2.79–6.40 | 2.43 | 0.88–3.99 | 0.45–4.42 | 7.033.24–10.82 |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic
Who wins each stat?
home draw away
Goals
14%
18%
68%
Shots on target
81%
Total shots
96%
Shots in box
91%
Blocked shots
21%
67%
Corners
85%
Fouls
62%
30%
Offsides
55%
19%
26%
Yellow cards
51%
21%
28%
Red cards
89%
GK saves
74%
15%
Model-implied probabilities from the predicted rates (Poisson approximation, teams treated as independent).
Model details — best model per statistic (lgbm, lstm_mlp_multi, lstm_mlp_single, xgb) · snapshot 2b4a317d · computed
| Target | Model / policy | Variant | PCA | MAE | RMSE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWAY_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.415 | 1.901 |
| AWAY_CORNERS | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.978 | 2.516 |
| AWAY_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.945 | 3.863 |
| AWAY_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.554 | 1.986 |
| AWAY_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.860 | 1.106 |
| AWAY_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.163 | 1.495 |
| AWAY_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 64.581 | 82.146 |
| AWAY_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.507 | 5.837 |
| AWAY_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.319 | 7.916 |
| AWAY_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 0.193 | 0.337 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_IN_BOX | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.301 | 3.098 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.707 | 2.176 |
| AWAY_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.378 | 4.309 |
| AWAY_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.120 | 1.410 |
| HOME_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cards_cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.584 | 2.119 |
| HOME_CORNERS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.205 | 2.800 |
| HOME_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.857 | 3.742 |
| HOME_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.414 | 1.804 |
| HOME_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.963 | 1.223 |
| HOME_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.209 | 1.554 |
| HOME_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 65.331 | 82.955 |
| HOME_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.216 | 5.517 |
| HOME_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.318 | 7.914 |
| HOME_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.153 | 0.306 |
| HOME_SHOTS_IN_BOX | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.516 | 3.381 |
| HOME_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.856 | 2.355 |
| HOME_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.703 | 4.734 |
| HOME_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.056 | 1.328 |
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+