Bundesliga· Regular Season - 20· · referee: not announced
Predicted match statistics
| Stat | Home | safe | safer | Away | safe | safer | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.61 | 0.64–2.57 | 0.38–2.83 | 1.26 | 0.40–2.12 | 0.16–2.37 | 2.870.54–5.20 |
| Shots on target | 5.76 | 3.91–7.62 | 3.41–8.12 | 4.28 | 2.57–5.99 | 2.11–6.46 | 10.055.51–14.58 |
| Total shots | 16.13 | 12.43–19.84 | 11.40–20.87 | 12.16 | 8.78–15.54 | 7.85–16.47 | 28.2919.25–37.33 |
| Shots in box | 11.09 | 8.57–13.60 | 7.71–14.47 | 8.48 | 6.18–10.79 | 5.39–11.58 | 19.5713.09–26.05 |
| Blocked shots | 4.32 | 2.74–5.91 | 2.20–6.44 | 3.57 | 2.15–4.98 | 1.67–5.47 | 7.893.87–11.91 |
| Corners | 5.65 | 3.45–7.86 | 2.85–8.46 | 4.45 | 2.47–6.43 | 1.93–6.96 | 10.104.79–15.42 |
| Possession % | 54.64 | 48.32–60.96 | 46.72–62.55 | 45.70 | 39.38–52.02 | 37.78–53.61 | — |
| Passes | 537 | 472–603 | 454–620 | 431 | 367–496 | 349–513 | 968803–1134 |
| Pass accuracy % | 73.22 | 69.00–77.43 | 67.70–78.73 | 69.62 | 65.11–74.13 | 63.78–75.46 | — |
| Fouls | 10.49 | 7.64–13.35 | 6.75–14.24 | 10.13 | 7.19–13.08 | 6.27–13.99 | 20.6213.02–28.23 |
| Offsides | 1.78 | 0.57–2.99 | 0.23–3.34 | 1.32 | 0.16–2.49 | 0.00–2.82 | 3.110.06–6.15 |
| Yellow cards | 1.38 | 0.32–2.43 | 0.05–2.71 | 1.79 | 0.67–2.91 | 0.38–3.20 | 3.160.43–5.90 |
| Red cards | 0.03 | 0.00–0.18 | 0.00–0.33 | 0.07 | 0.00–0.26 | 0.00–0.40 | 0.090.00–0.74 |
| GK saves | 2.92 | 1.50–4.33 | 1.11–4.72 | 3.24 | 1.69–4.80 | 1.26–5.23 | 6.162.37–9.95 |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic
Who wins each stat?
home draw away
Goals
45%
25%
30%
Shots on target
62%
26%
Total shots
74%
20%
Shots in box
68%
24%
Blocked shots
53%
14%
33%
Corners
59%
29%
Fouls
49%
42%
Offsides
48%
23%
29%
Yellow cards
30%
23%
47%
Red cards
91%
GK saves
37%
16%
47%
Model-implied probabilities from the predicted rates (Poisson approximation, teams treated as independent).
Model details — best model per statistic (lgbm, lstm_mlp_multi, lstm_mlp_single, xgb) · snapshot 2b4a317d · computed
| Target | Model / policy | Variant | PCA | MAE | RMSE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWAY_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.415 | 1.901 |
| AWAY_CORNERS | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.978 | 2.516 |
| AWAY_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.945 | 3.863 |
| AWAY_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.554 | 1.986 |
| AWAY_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.860 | 1.106 |
| AWAY_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.163 | 1.495 |
| AWAY_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 64.581 | 82.146 |
| AWAY_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.507 | 5.837 |
| AWAY_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.319 | 7.916 |
| AWAY_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 0.193 | 0.337 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_IN_BOX | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.301 | 3.098 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.707 | 2.176 |
| AWAY_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.378 | 4.309 |
| AWAY_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.120 | 1.410 |
| HOME_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cards_cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.584 | 2.119 |
| HOME_CORNERS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.205 | 2.800 |
| HOME_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.857 | 3.742 |
| HOME_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.414 | 1.804 |
| HOME_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.963 | 1.223 |
| HOME_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.209 | 1.554 |
| HOME_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 65.331 | 82.955 |
| HOME_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.216 | 5.517 |
| HOME_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.318 | 7.914 |
| HOME_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.153 | 0.306 |
| HOME_SHOTS_IN_BOX | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.516 | 3.381 |
| HOME_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.856 | 2.355 |
| HOME_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.703 | 4.734 |
| HOME_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.056 | 1.328 |
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+