Bundesliga· Regular Season - 21· · referee: not announced
Predicted match statistics
| Stat | Home | safe | safer | Away | safe | safer | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.67 | 0.71–2.63 | 0.45–2.89 | 1.14 | 0.28–2.00 | 0.04–2.25 | 2.810.48–5.14 |
| Shots on target | 5.34 | 3.48–7.19 | 2.98–7.69 | 3.68 | 1.98–5.39 | 1.51–5.86 | 9.024.49–13.55 |
| Total shots | 15.69 | 11.99–19.39 | 10.95–20.42 | 11.14 | 7.77–14.52 | 6.83–15.45 | 26.8317.79–35.88 |
| Shots in box | 10.39 | 7.88–12.91 | 7.01–13.77 | 7.04 | 4.74–9.35 | 3.95–10.14 | 17.4410.96–23.92 |
| Blocked shots | 4.47 | 2.88–6.05 | 2.35–6.59 | 2.88 | 1.46–4.29 | 0.97–4.78 | 7.343.32–11.36 |
| Corners | 5.94 | 3.73–8.15 | 3.14–8.74 | 4.61 | 2.64–6.59 | 2.10–7.13 | 10.555.24–15.87 |
| Possession % | 55.92 | 49.60–62.24 | 48.01–63.84 | 44.45 | 38.13–50.77 | 36.53–52.37 | — |
| Passes | 502 | 436–567 | 419–585 | 393 | 329–458 | 311–475 | 895730–1060 |
| Pass accuracy % | 69.38 | 65.16–73.59 | 63.86–74.89 | 67.35 | 62.84–71.86 | 61.51–73.19 | — |
| Fouls | 10.85 | 8.00–13.71 | 7.11–14.60 | 11.35 | 8.41–14.30 | 7.49–15.21 | 22.2014.60–29.81 |
| Offsides | 1.79 | 0.58–3.00 | 0.23–3.34 | 1.66 | 0.50–2.83 | 0.17–3.16 | 3.450.40–6.50 |
| Yellow cards | 1.43 | 0.37–2.48 | 0.10–2.76 | 1.81 | 0.69–2.93 | 0.40–3.23 | 3.240.50–5.98 |
| Red cards | 0.03 | 0.00–0.18 | 0.00–0.34 | 0.06 | 0.00–0.25 | 0.00–0.40 | 0.090.00–0.73 |
| GK saves | 2.26 | 0.85–3.68 | 0.46–4.06 | 3.27 | 1.71–4.82 | 1.28–5.25 | 5.531.74–9.32 |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic
Who wins each stat?
home draw away
Goals
50%
24%
26%
Shots on target
65%
23%
Total shots
78%
16%
Shots in box
75%
18%
Blocked shots
66%
22%
Corners
60%
29%
Fouls
42%
50%
Offsides
41%
22%
36%
Yellow cards
30%
23%
47%
Red cards
92%
GK saves
26%
16%
58%
Model-implied probabilities from the predicted rates (Poisson approximation, teams treated as independent).
Model details — best model per statistic (lgbm, lstm_mlp_multi, lstm_mlp_single, xgb) · snapshot 2b4a317d · computed
| Target | Model / policy | Variant | PCA | MAE | RMSE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWAY_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.415 | 1.901 |
| AWAY_CORNERS | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.978 | 2.516 |
| AWAY_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.945 | 3.863 |
| AWAY_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.554 | 1.986 |
| AWAY_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.860 | 1.106 |
| AWAY_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.163 | 1.495 |
| AWAY_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 64.581 | 82.146 |
| AWAY_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.507 | 5.837 |
| AWAY_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.319 | 7.916 |
| AWAY_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 0.193 | 0.337 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_IN_BOX | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.301 | 3.098 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.707 | 2.176 |
| AWAY_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.378 | 4.309 |
| AWAY_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.120 | 1.410 |
| HOME_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cards_cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.584 | 2.119 |
| HOME_CORNERS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.205 | 2.800 |
| HOME_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.857 | 3.742 |
| HOME_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.414 | 1.804 |
| HOME_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.963 | 1.223 |
| HOME_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.209 | 1.554 |
| HOME_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 65.331 | 82.955 |
| HOME_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.216 | 5.517 |
| HOME_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.318 | 7.914 |
| HOME_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.153 | 0.306 |
| HOME_SHOTS_IN_BOX | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.516 | 3.381 |
| HOME_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.856 | 2.355 |
| HOME_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.703 | 4.734 |
| HOME_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.056 | 1.328 |
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+