Bundesliga· Regular Season - 24· · referee: not announced
Predicted match statistics
| Stat | Home | safe | safer | Away | safe | safer | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.55 | 0.59–2.52 | 0.33–2.78 | 1.50 | 0.64–2.36 | 0.39–2.60 | 3.050.72–5.38 |
| Shots on target | 4.91 | 3.05–6.77 | 2.55–7.26 | 5.21 | 3.50–6.91 | 3.03–7.38 | 10.115.58–14.65 |
| Total shots | 13.85 | 10.14–17.55 | 9.11–18.58 | 15.37 | 12.00–18.75 | 11.07–19.68 | 29.2220.18–38.26 |
| Shots in box | 9.61 | 7.10–12.13 | 6.23–12.99 | 10.23 | 7.93–12.53 | 7.13–13.33 | 19.8413.36–26.32 |
| Blocked shots | 3.50 | 1.91–5.08 | 1.38–5.61 | 3.88 | 2.46–5.29 | 1.98–5.78 | 7.373.35–11.39 |
| Corners | 5.06 | 2.85–7.26 | 2.26–7.86 | 5.88 | 3.90–7.85 | 3.36–8.39 | 10.935.62–16.25 |
| Possession % | 45.87 | 39.55–52.18 | 37.95–53.78 | 53.63 | 47.31–59.95 | 45.71–61.55 | — |
| Passes | 414 | 349–479 | 331–497 | 468 | 404–533 | 386–551 | 883718–1048 |
| Pass accuracy % | 68.87 | 64.66–73.09 | 63.36–74.39 | 71.92 | 67.42–76.43 | 66.09–77.76 | — |
| Fouls | 12.22 | 9.36–15.08 | 8.48–15.96 | 11.25 | 8.30–14.19 | 7.38–15.11 | 23.4715.86–31.07 |
| Offsides | 1.86 | 0.65–3.07 | 0.31–3.41 | 1.70 | 0.54–2.87 | 0.21–3.20 | 3.560.51–6.61 |
| Yellow cards | 1.84 | 0.78–2.89 | 0.51–3.17 | 1.90 | 0.78–3.02 | 0.49–3.31 | 3.731.00–6.47 |
| Red cards | 0.08 | 0.00–0.23 | 0.00–0.39 | 0.09 | 0.00–0.29 | 0.00–0.43 | 0.170.00–0.82 |
| GK saves | 3.65 | 2.23–5.06 | 1.84–5.45 | 2.88 | 1.33–4.44 | 0.90–4.87 | 6.532.74–10.32 |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic
Who wins each stat?
home draw away
Goals
39%
24%
37%
Shots on target
40%
47%
Total shots
35%
58%
Shots in box
40%
51%
Blocked shots
37%
15%
48%
Corners
34%
54%
Fouls
54%
38%
Offsides
42%
22%
36%
Yellow cards
38%
21%
40%
Red cards
85%
GK saves
54%
15%
31%
Model-implied probabilities from the predicted rates (Poisson approximation, teams treated as independent).
Model details — best model per statistic (lgbm, lstm_mlp_multi, lstm_mlp_single, xgb) · snapshot 2b4a317d · computed
| Target | Model / policy | Variant | PCA | MAE | RMSE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWAY_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.415 | 1.901 |
| AWAY_CORNERS | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.978 | 2.516 |
| AWAY_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.945 | 3.863 |
| AWAY_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.554 | 1.986 |
| AWAY_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.860 | 1.106 |
| AWAY_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.163 | 1.495 |
| AWAY_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 64.581 | 82.146 |
| AWAY_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.507 | 5.837 |
| AWAY_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.319 | 7.916 |
| AWAY_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 0.193 | 0.337 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_IN_BOX | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.301 | 3.098 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.707 | 2.176 |
| AWAY_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.378 | 4.309 |
| AWAY_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.120 | 1.410 |
| HOME_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cards_cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.584 | 2.119 |
| HOME_CORNERS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.205 | 2.800 |
| HOME_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.857 | 3.742 |
| HOME_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.414 | 1.804 |
| HOME_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.963 | 1.223 |
| HOME_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.209 | 1.554 |
| HOME_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 65.331 | 82.955 |
| HOME_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.216 | 5.517 |
| HOME_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.318 | 7.914 |
| HOME_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.153 | 0.306 |
| HOME_SHOTS_IN_BOX | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.516 | 3.381 |
| HOME_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.856 | 2.355 |
| HOME_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.703 | 4.734 |
| HOME_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.056 | 1.328 |
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+