Bundesliga· Regular Season - 24· · referee: not announced
Predicted match statistics
| Stat | Home | safe | safer | Away | safe | safer | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.43 | 0.47–2.40 | 0.21–2.66 | 2.56 | 1.70–3.42 | 1.46–3.67 | 4.001.67–6.32 |
| Shots on target | 4.85 | 3.00–6.71 | 2.50–7.21 | 7.36 | 5.65–9.07 | 5.18–9.54 | 12.217.68–16.74 |
| Total shots | 13.00 | 9.30–16.71 | 8.27–17.74 | 18.42 | 15.04–21.80 | 14.11–22.73 | 31.4222.38–40.47 |
| Shots in box | 9.14 | 6.62–11.65 | 5.76–12.52 | 11.74 | 9.44–14.04 | 8.64–14.84 | 20.8814.40–27.36 |
| Blocked shots | 3.25 | 1.67–4.83 | 1.13–5.37 | 4.38 | 2.96–5.79 | 2.48–6.28 | 7.633.61–11.65 |
| Corners | 4.56 | 2.35–6.76 | 1.76–7.36 | 6.54 | 4.56–8.51 | 4.02–9.05 | 11.095.78–16.41 |
| Possession % | 42.30 | 35.98–48.62 | 34.39–50.21 | 58.38 | 52.06–64.70 | 50.46–66.29 | — |
| Passes | 408 | 342–473 | 325–491 | 539 | 475–604 | 457–622 | 947782–1112 |
| Pass accuracy % | 71.15 | 66.93–75.36 | 65.63–76.66 | 80.90 | 76.40–85.41 | 75.07–86.74 | — |
| Fouls | 10.77 | 7.92–13.63 | 7.03–14.51 | 10.06 | 7.11–13.00 | 6.19–13.92 | 20.8313.23–28.44 |
| Offsides | 2.17 | 0.96–3.38 | 0.62–3.72 | 2.01 | 0.85–3.17 | 0.52–3.51 | 4.181.13–7.23 |
| Yellow cards | 1.60 | 0.54–2.65 | 0.27–2.92 | 1.64 | 0.51–2.76 | 0.22–3.05 | 3.230.49–5.97 |
| Red cards | 0.03 | 0.00–0.18 | 0.00–0.34 | 0.06 | 0.00–0.25 | 0.00–0.39 | 0.090.00–0.73 |
| GK saves | 4.87 | 3.46–6.29 | 3.07–6.67 | 2.85 | 1.30–4.41 | 0.87–4.84 | 7.723.93–11.51 |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic
Who wins each stat?
home draw away
Goals
20%
18%
62%
Shots on target
19%
72%
Total shots
14%
81%
Shots in box
25%
68%
Blocked shots
28%
14%
59%
Corners
23%
67%
Fouls
52%
39%
Offsides
43%
20%
37%
Yellow cards
38%
23%
39%
Red cards
92%
GK saves
71%
18%
Model-implied probabilities from the predicted rates (Poisson approximation, teams treated as independent).
Model details — best model per statistic (lgbm, lstm_mlp_multi, lstm_mlp_single, xgb) · snapshot 2b4a317d · computed
| Target | Model / policy | Variant | PCA | MAE | RMSE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWAY_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.415 | 1.901 |
| AWAY_CORNERS | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.978 | 2.516 |
| AWAY_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.945 | 3.863 |
| AWAY_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.554 | 1.986 |
| AWAY_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.860 | 1.106 |
| AWAY_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.163 | 1.495 |
| AWAY_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 64.581 | 82.146 |
| AWAY_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.507 | 5.837 |
| AWAY_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.319 | 7.916 |
| AWAY_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 0.193 | 0.337 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_IN_BOX | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.301 | 3.098 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.707 | 2.176 |
| AWAY_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.378 | 4.309 |
| AWAY_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.120 | 1.410 |
| HOME_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cards_cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.584 | 2.119 |
| HOME_CORNERS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.205 | 2.800 |
| HOME_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.857 | 3.742 |
| HOME_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.414 | 1.804 |
| HOME_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.963 | 1.223 |
| HOME_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.209 | 1.554 |
| HOME_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 65.331 | 82.955 |
| HOME_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.216 | 5.517 |
| HOME_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.318 | 7.914 |
| HOME_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.153 | 0.306 |
| HOME_SHOTS_IN_BOX | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.516 | 3.381 |
| HOME_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.856 | 2.355 |
| HOME_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.703 | 4.734 |
| HOME_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.056 | 1.328 |
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+