Predicted match statistics
| Stat | Home | safe | safer | Away | safe | safer | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.56 | 0.60–2.52 | 0.34–2.78 | 1.56 | 0.70–2.42 | 0.46–2.67 | 3.120.80–5.45 |
| Shots on target | 5.01 | 3.15–6.86 | 2.65–7.36 | 4.82 | 3.11–6.52 | 2.64–6.99 | 9.825.29–14.36 |
| Total shots | 15.42 | 11.71–19.12 | 10.68–20.15 | 14.29 | 10.92–17.67 | 9.98–18.60 | 29.7120.67–38.76 |
| Shots in box | 10.73 | 8.22–13.25 | 7.35–14.11 | 8.59 | 6.29–10.89 | 5.49–11.68 | 19.3212.84–25.80 |
| Blocked shots | 4.70 | 3.11–6.28 | 2.58–6.81 | 3.44 | 2.03–4.86 | 1.54–5.34 | 8.144.12–12.16 |
| Corners | 5.51 | 3.30–7.71 | 2.71–8.31 | 5.22 | 3.24–7.20 | 2.70–7.73 | 10.725.41–16.04 |
| Possession % | 51.44 | 45.12–57.76 | 43.52–59.35 | 47.83 | 41.51–54.15 | 39.92–55.75 | — |
| Passes | 467 | 401–532 | 384–550 | 430 | 365–495 | 348–512 | 897732–1062 |
| Pass accuracy % | 66.12 | 61.90–70.33 | 60.60–71.63 | 67.68 | 63.17–72.19 | 61.84–73.52 | — |
| Fouls | 9.32 | 6.47–12.18 | 5.58–13.07 | 9.85 | 6.90–12.79 | 5.98–13.71 | 19.1711.57–26.78 |
| Offsides | 1.91 | 0.70–3.12 | 0.36–3.46 | 1.74 | 0.58–2.90 | 0.25–3.24 | 3.650.60–6.70 |
| Yellow cards | 1.35 | 0.29–2.40 | 0.02–2.67 | 1.63 | 0.51–2.75 | 0.22–3.04 | 2.980.24–5.71 |
| Red cards | 0.04 | 0.00–0.19 | 0.00–0.34 | 0.06 | 0.00–0.25 | 0.00–0.39 | 0.090.00–0.74 |
| GK saves | 2.90 | 1.49–4.32 | 1.10–4.71 | 3.29 | 1.73–4.84 | 1.30–5.27 | 6.192.40–9.98 |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic
Who wins each stat?
home draw away
Goals
38%
24%
38%
Shots on target
46%
41%
Total shots
55%
38%
Shots in box
65%
27%
Blocked shots
60%
27%
Corners
47%
40%
Fouls
41%
50%
Offsides
43%
22%
36%
Yellow cards
32%
24%
44%
Red cards
91%
GK saves
36%
16%
48%
Model-implied probabilities from the predicted rates (Poisson approximation, teams treated as independent).
Model details — best model per statistic (lgbm, lstm_mlp_multi, lstm_mlp_single, xgb) · snapshot 2b4a317d · computed
| Target | Model / policy | Variant | PCA | MAE | RMSE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWAY_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.415 | 1.901 |
| AWAY_CORNERS | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.978 | 2.516 |
| AWAY_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.945 | 3.863 |
| AWAY_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.554 | 1.986 |
| AWAY_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.860 | 1.106 |
| AWAY_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.163 | 1.495 |
| AWAY_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 64.581 | 82.146 |
| AWAY_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.507 | 5.837 |
| AWAY_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.319 | 7.916 |
| AWAY_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 0.193 | 0.337 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_IN_BOX | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.301 | 3.098 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.707 | 2.176 |
| AWAY_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.378 | 4.309 |
| AWAY_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.120 | 1.410 |
| HOME_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cards_cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.584 | 2.119 |
| HOME_CORNERS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.205 | 2.800 |
| HOME_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.857 | 3.742 |
| HOME_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.414 | 1.804 |
| HOME_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.963 | 1.223 |
| HOME_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.209 | 1.554 |
| HOME_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 65.331 | 82.955 |
| HOME_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.216 | 5.517 |
| HOME_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.318 | 7.914 |
| HOME_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.153 | 0.306 |
| HOME_SHOTS_IN_BOX | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.516 | 3.381 |
| HOME_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.856 | 2.355 |
| HOME_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.703 | 4.734 |
| HOME_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.056 | 1.328 |
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+