Bundesliga· Regular Season - 31· · referee: not announced
Predicted match statistics
| Stat | Home | safe | safer | Away | safe | safer | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.37 | 0.41–2.33 | 0.15–2.59 | 1.62 | 0.76–2.48 | 0.52–2.73 | 2.990.67–5.32 |
| Shots on target | 4.81 | 2.95–6.66 | 2.45–7.16 | 5.30 | 3.59–7.00 | 3.12–7.47 | 10.105.57–14.63 |
| Total shots | 14.22 | 10.51–17.92 | 9.48–18.95 | 15.39 | 12.01–18.77 | 11.08–19.70 | 29.6120.57–38.65 |
| Shots in box | 9.85 | 7.33–12.37 | 6.47–13.23 | 9.53 | 7.23–11.83 | 6.43–12.63 | 19.3812.90–25.86 |
| Blocked shots | 3.67 | 2.08–5.25 | 1.55–5.78 | 3.60 | 2.18–5.01 | 1.70–5.50 | 7.263.24–11.28 |
| Corners | 4.84 | 2.64–7.05 | 2.04–7.64 | 5.45 | 3.47–7.42 | 2.93–7.96 | 10.294.97–15.60 |
| Possession % | 46.06 | 39.74–52.38 | 38.15–53.97 | 52.20 | 45.88–58.52 | 44.29–60.12 | — |
| Passes | 418 | 353–483 | 335–501 | 470 | 406–535 | 388–553 | 888723–1053 |
| Pass accuracy % | 68.63 | 64.41–72.84 | 63.11–74.15 | 72.20 | 67.69–76.70 | 66.36–78.03 | — |
| Fouls | 11.99 | 9.14–14.85 | 8.25–15.74 | 11.61 | 8.66–14.55 | 7.74–15.47 | 23.6016.00–31.21 |
| Offsides | 1.96 | 0.75–3.17 | 0.40–3.51 | 1.40 | 0.23–2.56 | 0.00–2.89 | 3.360.31–6.40 |
| Yellow cards | 1.67 | 0.61–2.72 | 0.34–2.99 | 1.66 | 0.54–2.78 | 0.25–3.07 | 3.330.59–6.07 |
| Red cards | 0.09 | 0.00–0.24 | 0.00–0.40 | 0.07 | 0.00–0.27 | 0.00–0.41 | 0.160.00–0.81 |
| GK saves | 3.32 | 1.91–4.74 | 1.52–5.13 | 3.08 | 1.52–4.63 | 1.09–5.06 | 6.402.61–10.19 |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic
Who wins each stat?
home draw away
Goals
32%
24%
43%
Shots on target
38%
50%
Total shots
38%
55%
Shots in box
48%
43%
Blocked shots
43%
15%
41%
Corners
36%
51%
Fouls
49%
43%
Offsides
51%
22%
27%
Yellow cards
39%
23%
38%
Red cards
85%
GK saves
46%
16%
38%
Model-implied probabilities from the predicted rates (Poisson approximation, teams treated as independent).
Model details — best model per statistic (lgbm, lstm_mlp_multi, lstm_mlp_single, xgb) · snapshot 2b4a317d · computed
| Target | Model / policy | Variant | PCA | MAE | RMSE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWAY_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.415 | 1.901 |
| AWAY_CORNERS | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.978 | 2.516 |
| AWAY_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.945 | 3.863 |
| AWAY_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.554 | 1.986 |
| AWAY_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.860 | 1.106 |
| AWAY_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.163 | 1.495 |
| AWAY_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 64.581 | 82.146 |
| AWAY_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.507 | 5.837 |
| AWAY_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.319 | 7.916 |
| AWAY_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 0.193 | 0.337 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_IN_BOX | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.301 | 3.098 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.707 | 2.176 |
| AWAY_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.378 | 4.309 |
| AWAY_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.120 | 1.410 |
| HOME_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cards_cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.584 | 2.119 |
| HOME_CORNERS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.205 | 2.800 |
| HOME_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.857 | 3.742 |
| HOME_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.414 | 1.804 |
| HOME_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.963 | 1.223 |
| HOME_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.209 | 1.554 |
| HOME_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 65.331 | 82.955 |
| HOME_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.216 | 5.517 |
| HOME_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.318 | 7.914 |
| HOME_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.153 | 0.306 |
| HOME_SHOTS_IN_BOX | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.516 | 3.381 |
| HOME_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.856 | 2.355 |
| HOME_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.703 | 4.734 |
| HOME_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.056 | 1.328 |
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+