Bundesliga· Regular Season - 33· · referee: not announced
Predicted match statistics
| Stat | Home | safe | safer | Away | safe | safer | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 2.08 | 1.12–3.05 | 0.86–3.31 | 1.61 | 0.75–2.47 | 0.51–2.72 | 3.701.37–6.03 |
| Shots on target | 6.12 | 4.26–7.98 | 3.76–8.47 | 5.51 | 3.80–7.22 | 3.34–7.69 | 11.637.10–16.16 |
| Total shots | 15.70 | 12.00–19.41 | 10.97–20.44 | 13.81 | 10.43–17.18 | 9.50–18.11 | 29.5120.47–38.55 |
| Shots in box | 11.83 | 9.31–14.34 | 8.44–15.21 | 9.62 | 7.32–11.92 | 6.52–12.72 | 21.4414.97–27.92 |
| Blocked shots | 4.03 | 2.45–5.62 | 1.91–6.15 | 3.72 | 2.31–5.14 | 1.82–5.62 | 7.763.74–11.78 |
| Corners | 5.63 | 3.43–7.84 | 2.83–8.43 | 4.63 | 2.65–6.61 | 2.12–7.15 | 10.274.95–15.58 |
| Possession % | 52.27 | 45.95–58.59 | 44.35–60.18 | 47.02 | 40.70–53.33 | 39.10–54.93 | — |
| Passes | 521 | 456–587 | 438–604 | 471 | 407–536 | 389–553 | 993828–1158 |
| Pass accuracy % | 80.89 | 76.68–85.11 | 75.38–86.41 | 80.49 | 75.98–84.99 | 74.65–86.32 | — |
| Fouls | 10.20 | 7.34–13.05 | 6.46–13.94 | 10.11 | 7.17–13.06 | 6.25–13.97 | 20.3112.70–27.91 |
| Offsides | 2.61 | 1.40–3.82 | 1.06–4.17 | 1.72 | 0.56–2.89 | 0.23–3.22 | 4.341.29–7.39 |
| Yellow cards | 1.64 | 0.59–2.70 | 0.31–2.97 | 1.54 | 0.42–2.66 | 0.13–2.95 | 3.190.45–5.92 |
| Red cards | 0.03 | 0.00–0.18 | 0.00–0.33 | 0.06 | 0.00–0.25 | 0.00–0.40 | 0.090.00–0.73 |
| GK saves | 3.19 | 1.77–4.60 | 1.38–4.99 | 3.22 | 1.66–4.77 | 1.23–5.20 | 6.402.61–10.19 |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic
Who wins each stat?
home draw away
Goals
49%
21%
30%
Shots on target
51%
37%
Total shots
60%
33%
Shots in box
64%
28%
Blocked shots
47%
14%
38%
Corners
56%
32%
Fouls
46%
45%
Offsides
57%
18%
25%
Yellow cards
40%
23%
36%
Red cards
92%
GK saves
41%
16%
42%
Model-implied probabilities from the predicted rates (Poisson approximation, teams treated as independent).
Model details — best model per statistic (lgbm, lstm_mlp_multi, lstm_mlp_single, xgb) · snapshot 2b4a317d · computed
| Target | Model / policy | Variant | PCA | MAE | RMSE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWAY_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.415 | 1.901 |
| AWAY_CORNERS | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.978 | 2.516 |
| AWAY_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.945 | 3.863 |
| AWAY_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.554 | 1.986 |
| AWAY_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.860 | 1.106 |
| AWAY_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.163 | 1.495 |
| AWAY_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 64.581 | 82.146 |
| AWAY_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.507 | 5.837 |
| AWAY_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.319 | 7.916 |
| AWAY_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 0.193 | 0.337 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_IN_BOX | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.301 | 3.098 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.707 | 2.176 |
| AWAY_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.378 | 4.309 |
| AWAY_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.120 | 1.410 |
| HOME_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cards_cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.584 | 2.119 |
| HOME_CORNERS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.205 | 2.800 |
| HOME_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.857 | 3.742 |
| HOME_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.414 | 1.804 |
| HOME_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.963 | 1.223 |
| HOME_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.209 | 1.554 |
| HOME_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 65.331 | 82.955 |
| HOME_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.216 | 5.517 |
| HOME_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.318 | 7.914 |
| HOME_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.153 | 0.306 |
| HOME_SHOTS_IN_BOX | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.516 | 3.381 |
| HOME_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.856 | 2.355 |
| HOME_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.703 | 4.734 |
| HOME_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.056 | 1.328 |
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+