Bundesliga· Regular Season - 34· · referee: not announced
Predicted match statistics
| Stat | Home | safe | safer | Away | safe | safer | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.52 | 0.56–2.49 | 0.30–2.75 | 2.11 | 1.25–2.97 | 1.00–3.21 | 3.631.30–5.96 |
| Shots on target | 5.41 | 3.55–7.27 | 3.05–7.76 | 5.96 | 4.25–7.66 | 3.78–8.13 | 11.366.83–15.90 |
| Total shots | 17.36 | 13.65–21.06 | 12.62–22.09 | 15.69 | 12.31–19.07 | 11.38–20.00 | 33.0524.00–42.09 |
| Shots in box | 9.99 | 7.48–12.51 | 6.61–13.38 | 10.84 | 8.54–13.14 | 7.74–13.94 | 20.8314.35–27.31 |
| Blocked shots | 4.12 | 2.53–5.70 | 2.00–6.24 | 3.57 | 2.16–4.99 | 1.67–5.48 | 7.693.67–11.71 |
| Corners | 5.24 | 3.03–7.44 | 2.43–8.04 | 5.56 | 3.59–7.54 | 3.05–8.08 | 10.805.48–16.12 |
| Possession % | 49.96 | 43.64–56.28 | 42.05–57.88 | 48.05 | 41.74–54.37 | 40.14–55.97 | — |
| Passes | 435 | 370–500 | 352–518 | 422 | 357–486 | 340–504 | 857692–1022 |
| Pass accuracy % | 70.76 | 66.55–74.98 | 65.24–76.28 | 71.81 | 67.30–76.32 | 65.97–77.65 | — |
| Fouls | 10.28 | 7.42–13.14 | 6.54–14.02 | 11.23 | 8.28–14.17 | 7.36–15.09 | 21.5113.90–29.11 |
| Offsides | 1.61 | 0.40–2.82 | 0.05–3.16 | 2.10 | 0.94–3.26 | 0.60–3.59 | 3.710.66–6.76 |
| Yellow cards | 1.74 | 0.69–2.80 | 0.42–3.07 | 1.32 | 0.20–2.44 | 0.00–2.73 | 3.060.32–5.80 |
| Red cards | 0.05 | 0.00–0.20 | 0.00–0.35 | 0.06 | 0.00–0.25 | 0.00–0.39 | 0.100.00–0.74 |
| GK saves | 3.16 | 1.75–4.58 | 1.36–4.96 | 3.68 | 2.12–5.23 | 1.69–5.66 | 6.843.05–10.63 |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic
Who wins each stat?
home draw away
Goals
28%
21%
51%
Shots on target
38%
50%
Total shots
58%
35%
Shots in box
38%
53%
Blocked shots
50%
14%
35%
Corners
40%
48%
Fouls
38%
54%
Offsides
30%
21%
49%
Yellow cards
48%
23%
29%
Red cards
91%
GK saves
35%
15%
50%
Model-implied probabilities from the predicted rates (Poisson approximation, teams treated as independent).
Model details — best model per statistic (lgbm, lstm_mlp_multi, lstm_mlp_single, xgb) · snapshot 2b4a317d · computed
| Target | Model / policy | Variant | PCA | MAE | RMSE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWAY_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.415 | 1.901 |
| AWAY_CORNERS | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.978 | 2.516 |
| AWAY_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.945 | 3.863 |
| AWAY_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.554 | 1.986 |
| AWAY_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.860 | 1.106 |
| AWAY_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.163 | 1.495 |
| AWAY_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 64.581 | 82.146 |
| AWAY_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.507 | 5.837 |
| AWAY_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.319 | 7.916 |
| AWAY_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 0.193 | 0.337 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_IN_BOX | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.301 | 3.098 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.707 | 2.176 |
| AWAY_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.378 | 4.309 |
| AWAY_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.120 | 1.410 |
| HOME_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cards_cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.584 | 2.119 |
| HOME_CORNERS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.205 | 2.800 |
| HOME_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.857 | 3.742 |
| HOME_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.414 | 1.804 |
| HOME_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.963 | 1.223 |
| HOME_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.209 | 1.554 |
| HOME_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 65.331 | 82.955 |
| HOME_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.216 | 5.517 |
| HOME_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.318 | 7.914 |
| HOME_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.153 | 0.306 |
| HOME_SHOTS_IN_BOX | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.516 | 3.381 |
| HOME_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.856 | 2.355 |
| HOME_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.703 | 4.734 |
| HOME_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.056 | 1.328 |
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+