Primeira Liga· Regular Season - 3· · referee: not announced
Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoff| Stat | Home | safe | safer | actual | Away | safe | safer | actual | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 0.86 | 0.00–1.83 | 0.00–2.09 | 2.00 | 1.56 | 0.70–2.42 | 0.45–2.66 | 1.00 | 2.42act. 3.00 |
| Shots on target | 2.90 | 1.05–4.76 | 0.55–5.26 | 5.00 | 4.39 | 2.68–6.09 | 2.21–6.56 | 4.00 | 7.29act. 9.00 |
| Total shots | 9.27 | 5.57–12.97 | 4.54–14.01 | 9.00 | 11.71 | 8.33–15.09 | 7.40–16.02 | 9.00 | 20.98act. 18.00 |
| Shots in box | 5.58 | 3.07–8.10 | 2.20–8.96 | 8.00 | 7.74 | 5.44–10.04 | 4.64–10.84 | 6.00 | 13.32act. 14.00 |
| Blocked shots | 2.52 | 0.93–4.10 | 0.40–4.64 | 1.00 | 3.16 | 1.74–4.57 | 1.26–5.06 | 2.00 | 5.67act. 3.00 |
| Corners | 3.64 | 1.43–5.84 | 0.84–6.44 | 5.00 | 4.82 | 2.84–6.80 | 2.31–7.34 | 9.00 | 8.46act. 14.00 |
| Possession % | 39.80 | 33.48–46.12 | 31.89–47.71 | 37.00 | 59.89 | 53.57–66.21 | 51.97–67.80 | 63.00 | — |
| Passes | 309 | 244–375 | 226–392 | 353 | 511 | 446–576 | 429–593 | 596 | 820act. 949 |
| Pass accuracy % | 76.40 | 72.18–80.61 | 70.88–81.91 | — | 78.33 | 73.82–82.84 | 72.49–84.17 | — | — |
| Fouls | 12.67 | 9.81–15.53 | 8.93–16.41 | 12.00 | 12.62 | 9.68–15.57 | 8.76–16.49 | 14.00 | 25.29act. 26.00 |
| Offsides | 1.32 | 0.11–2.53 | 0.00–2.87 | 0.00 | 1.97 | 0.81–3.14 | 0.48–3.47 | 1.00 | 3.29act. 1.00 |
| Yellow cards | 2.54 | 1.49–3.60 | 1.21–3.87 | 2.00 | 2.42 | 1.30–3.54 | 1.01–3.83 | 1.00 | 4.96act. 3.00 |
| Red cards | 0.09 | 0.00–0.24 | 0.00–0.40 | 0.00 | 0.09 | 0.00–0.28 | 0.00–0.43 | 0.00 | 0.18act. 0.00 |
| GK saves | 2.90 | 1.49–4.32 | 1.10–4.71 | 3.00 | 2.46 | 0.90–4.01 | 0.47–4.44 | 3.00 | 5.36act. 6.00 |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Who wins each stat?
home draw away
Goals
21%
25%
54%
Shots on target
23%
13%
64%
Total shots
26%
66%
Shots in box
23%
67%
Blocked shots
31%
17%
52%
Corners
28%
59%
Fouls
46%
46%
Offsides
25%
22%
53%
Yellow cards
43%
18%
39%
Red cards
84%
GK saves
49%
17%
34%
Model-implied probabilities from the predicted rates (Poisson approximation, teams treated as independent).
Model details — best model per statistic (lgbm, lstm_mlp_multi, lstm_mlp_single, xgb) · snapshot 2b4a317d · computed
| Target | Model / policy | Variant | PCA | MAE | RMSE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWAY_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.415 | 1.901 |
| AWAY_CORNERS | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.978 | 2.516 |
| AWAY_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.945 | 3.863 |
| AWAY_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.554 | 1.986 |
| AWAY_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.860 | 1.106 |
| AWAY_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.163 | 1.495 |
| AWAY_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 64.581 | 82.146 |
| AWAY_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.507 | 5.837 |
| AWAY_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.319 | 7.916 |
| AWAY_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 0.193 | 0.337 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_IN_BOX | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.301 | 3.098 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.707 | 2.176 |
| AWAY_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.378 | 4.309 |
| AWAY_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.120 | 1.410 |
| HOME_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cards_cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.584 | 2.119 |
| HOME_CORNERS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.205 | 2.800 |
| HOME_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.857 | 3.742 |
| HOME_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.414 | 1.804 |
| HOME_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.963 | 1.223 |
| HOME_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.209 | 1.554 |
| HOME_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 65.331 | 82.955 |
| HOME_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.216 | 5.517 |
| HOME_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.318 | 7.914 |
| HOME_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.153 | 0.306 |
| HOME_SHOTS_IN_BOX | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.516 | 3.381 |
| HOME_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.856 | 2.355 |
| HOME_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.703 | 4.734 |
| HOME_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.056 | 1.328 |
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+