Primeira Liga· Regular Season - 9· · referee: not announced
Predicted match statistics
| Stat | Home | safe | safer | Away | safe | safer | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 0.80 | 0.00–1.76 | 0.00–2.02 | 1.53 | 0.67–2.39 | 0.43–2.64 | 2.330.00–4.66 |
| Shots on target | 3.29 | 1.43–5.14 | 0.93–5.64 | 4.96 | 3.26–6.67 | 2.79–7.14 | 8.253.72–12.78 |
| Total shots | 10.13 | 6.43–13.83 | 5.39–14.86 | 13.22 | 9.84–16.59 | 8.91–17.52 | 23.3414.30–32.39 |
| Shots in box | 5.79 | 3.27–8.30 | 2.41–9.17 | 9.31 | 7.01–11.61 | 6.21–12.41 | 15.108.62–21.58 |
| Blocked shots | 3.14 | 1.56–4.73 | 1.02–5.26 | 3.16 | 1.75–4.57 | 1.26–5.06 | 6.302.28–10.32 |
| Corners | 3.90 | 1.69–6.10 | 1.10–6.70 | 5.02 | 3.04–7.00 | 2.50–7.53 | 8.923.60–14.23 |
| Possession % | 40.54 | 34.22–46.86 | 32.63–48.46 | 57.89 | 51.57–64.21 | 49.97–65.81 | — |
| Passes | 395 | 330–460 | 312–478 | 557 | 492–622 | 475–639 | 952787–1117 |
| Pass accuracy % | 69.85 | 65.63–74.07 | 64.33–75.37 | 77.70 | 73.19–82.21 | 71.86–83.54 | — |
| Fouls | 11.55 | 8.69–14.40 | 7.80–15.29 | 13.04 | 10.10–15.99 | 9.18–16.91 | 24.5916.98–32.20 |
| Offsides | 1.51 | 0.30–2.72 | 0.00–3.06 | 2.03 | 0.87–3.19 | 0.53–3.52 | 3.540.49–6.59 |
| Yellow cards | 1.95 | 0.90–3.01 | 0.63–3.28 | 2.02 | 0.90–3.14 | 0.61–3.43 | 3.981.24–6.71 |
| Red cards | 0.07 | 0.00–0.22 | 0.00–0.38 | 0.09 | 0.00–0.28 | 0.00–0.43 | 0.160.00–0.80 |
| GK saves | 3.18 | 1.77–4.60 | 1.38–4.99 | 2.37 | 0.82–3.92 | 0.38–4.36 | 5.551.76–9.34 |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic
Who wins each stat?
home draw away
Goals
19%
26%
55%
Shots on target
22%
66%
Total shots
23%
70%
Shots in box
15%
78%
Blocked shots
42%
16%
42%
Corners
29%
58%
Fouls
34%
58%
Offsides
29%
21%
50%
Yellow cards
38%
21%
41%
Red cards
86%
GK saves
55%
16%
29%
Model-implied probabilities from the predicted rates (Poisson approximation, teams treated as independent).
Model details — best model per statistic (lgbm, lstm_mlp_multi, lstm_mlp_single, xgb) · snapshot 2b4a317d · computed
| Target | Model / policy | Variant | PCA | MAE | RMSE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWAY_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.415 | 1.901 |
| AWAY_CORNERS | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.978 | 2.516 |
| AWAY_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.945 | 3.863 |
| AWAY_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.554 | 1.986 |
| AWAY_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.860 | 1.106 |
| AWAY_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.163 | 1.495 |
| AWAY_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 64.581 | 82.146 |
| AWAY_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.507 | 5.837 |
| AWAY_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.319 | 7.916 |
| AWAY_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 0.193 | 0.337 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_IN_BOX | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.301 | 3.098 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.707 | 2.176 |
| AWAY_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.378 | 4.309 |
| AWAY_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.120 | 1.410 |
| HOME_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cards_cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.584 | 2.119 |
| HOME_CORNERS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.205 | 2.800 |
| HOME_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.857 | 3.742 |
| HOME_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.414 | 1.804 |
| HOME_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.963 | 1.223 |
| HOME_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.209 | 1.554 |
| HOME_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 65.331 | 82.955 |
| HOME_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.216 | 5.517 |
| HOME_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.318 | 7.914 |
| HOME_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.153 | 0.306 |
| HOME_SHOTS_IN_BOX | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.516 | 3.381 |
| HOME_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.856 | 2.355 |
| HOME_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.703 | 4.734 |
| HOME_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.056 | 1.328 |
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+