Primeira Liga· Regular Season - 14· · referee: not announced
Predicted match statistics
| Stat | Home | safe | safer | Away | safe | safer | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.76 | 0.79–2.72 | 0.53–2.98 | 0.93 | 0.07–1.79 | 0.00–2.04 | 2.690.36–5.02 |
| Shots on target | 5.77 | 3.91–7.63 | 3.41–8.12 | 2.61 | 0.91–4.32 | 0.44–4.79 | 8.383.85–12.91 |
| Total shots | 15.98 | 12.28–19.68 | 11.25–20.71 | 6.67 | 3.30–10.05 | 2.36–10.98 | 22.6513.61–31.70 |
| Shots in box | 11.02 | 8.50–13.53 | 7.64–14.40 | 5.60 | 3.30–7.90 | 2.50–8.70 | 16.6210.14–23.10 |
| Blocked shots | 4.68 | 3.10–6.27 | 2.56–6.80 | 2.27 | 0.85–3.68 | 0.37–4.17 | 6.952.93–10.97 |
| Corners | 6.33 | 4.13–8.54 | 3.53–9.13 | 3.47 | 1.49–5.45 | 0.95–5.98 | 9.804.48–15.12 |
| Possession % | 52.55 | 46.24–58.87 | 44.64–60.47 | 46.30 | 39.98–52.62 | 38.38–54.21 | — |
| Passes | 493 | 428–558 | 410–576 | 444 | 380–509 | 362–526 | 937772–1102 |
| Pass accuracy % | 82.80 | 78.58–87.02 | 77.28–88.32 | 75.46 | 70.95–79.96 | 69.62–81.29 | — |
| Fouls | 10.89 | 8.04–13.75 | 7.15–14.64 | 14.22 | 11.27–17.17 | 10.36–18.08 | 25.1117.51–32.72 |
| Offsides | 1.72 | 0.51–2.93 | 0.17–3.27 | 1.39 | 0.23–2.56 | 0.00–2.89 | 3.110.06–6.16 |
| Yellow cards | 1.62 | 0.56–2.67 | 0.29–2.95 | 2.34 | 1.21–3.46 | 0.92–3.75 | 3.951.21–6.69 |
| Red cards | 0.03 | 0.00–0.18 | 0.00–0.33 | 0.09 | 0.00–0.28 | 0.00–0.43 | 0.120.00–0.76 |
| GK saves | 1.55 | 0.13–2.96 | 0.00–3.35 | 3.31 | 1.76–4.87 | 1.33–5.30 | 4.861.07–8.65 |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic
Who wins each stat?
home draw away
Goals
57%
23%
20%
Shots on target
82%
Total shots
97%
Shots in box
89%
Blocked shots
77%
Corners
78%
14%
Fouls
22%
71%
Offsides
45%
23%
31%
Yellow cards
26%
20%
54%
Red cards
89%
GK saves
14%
14%
72%
Model-implied probabilities from the predicted rates (Poisson approximation, teams treated as independent).
Model details — best model per statistic (lgbm, lstm_mlp_multi, lstm_mlp_single, xgb) · snapshot 2b4a317d · computed
| Target | Model / policy | Variant | PCA | MAE | RMSE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWAY_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.415 | 1.901 |
| AWAY_CORNERS | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.978 | 2.516 |
| AWAY_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.945 | 3.863 |
| AWAY_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.554 | 1.986 |
| AWAY_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.860 | 1.106 |
| AWAY_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.163 | 1.495 |
| AWAY_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 64.581 | 82.146 |
| AWAY_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.507 | 5.837 |
| AWAY_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.319 | 7.916 |
| AWAY_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 0.193 | 0.337 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_IN_BOX | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.301 | 3.098 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.707 | 2.176 |
| AWAY_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.378 | 4.309 |
| AWAY_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.120 | 1.410 |
| HOME_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cards_cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.584 | 2.119 |
| HOME_CORNERS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.205 | 2.800 |
| HOME_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.857 | 3.742 |
| HOME_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.414 | 1.804 |
| HOME_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.963 | 1.223 |
| HOME_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.209 | 1.554 |
| HOME_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 65.331 | 82.955 |
| HOME_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.216 | 5.517 |
| HOME_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.318 | 7.914 |
| HOME_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.153 | 0.306 |
| HOME_SHOTS_IN_BOX | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.516 | 3.381 |
| HOME_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.856 | 2.355 |
| HOME_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.703 | 4.734 |
| HOME_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.056 | 1.328 |
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+