Primeira Liga· Regular Season - 17· · referee: not announced
Predicted match statistics
| Stat | Home | safe | safer | Away | safe | safer | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.38 | 0.42–2.35 | 0.16–2.61 | 1.16 | 0.30–2.02 | 0.05–2.26 | 2.540.21–4.87 |
| Shots on target | 5.22 | 3.37–7.08 | 2.87–7.58 | 3.55 | 1.85–5.26 | 1.38–5.73 | 8.784.25–13.31 |
| Total shots | 15.75 | 12.05–19.45 | 11.02–20.48 | 11.74 | 8.36–15.12 | 7.43–16.05 | 27.4918.45–36.53 |
| Shots in box | 7.89 | 5.37–10.41 | 4.51–11.27 | 7.48 | 5.18–9.78 | 4.38–10.58 | 15.378.89–21.85 |
| Blocked shots | 3.54 | 1.96–5.13 | 1.42–5.66 | 3.19 | 1.78–4.61 | 1.29–5.09 | 6.742.72–10.76 |
| Corners | 6.34 | 4.14–8.55 | 3.54–9.14 | 4.24 | 2.27–6.22 | 1.73–6.76 | 10.595.27–15.90 |
| Possession % | 57.29 | 50.97–63.61 | 49.38–65.20 | 43.37 | 37.05–49.69 | 35.46–51.29 | — |
| Passes | 452 | 387–517 | 369–535 | 348 | 283–413 | 266–430 | 800635–965 |
| Pass accuracy % | 74.17 | 69.95–78.38 | 68.65–79.68 | 68.89 | 64.38–73.39 | 63.05–74.73 | — |
| Fouls | 12.77 | 9.92–15.63 | 9.03–16.52 | 12.85 | 9.90–15.79 | 8.98–16.71 | 25.6218.01–33.23 |
| Offsides | 1.65 | 0.44–2.86 | 0.10–3.21 | 1.37 | 0.21–2.54 | 0.00–2.87 | 3.030.00–6.08 |
| Yellow cards | 1.82 | 0.77–2.88 | 0.49–3.15 | 2.38 | 1.26–3.50 | 0.97–3.79 | 4.201.46–6.94 |
| Red cards | 0.07 | 0.00–0.22 | 0.00–0.37 | 0.08 | 0.00–0.28 | 0.00–0.42 | 0.150.00–0.79 |
| GK saves | 2.25 | 0.84–3.67 | 0.45–4.05 | 3.35 | 1.80–4.91 | 1.37–5.34 | 5.601.81–9.39 |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic
Who wins each stat?
home draw away
Goals
42%
27%
31%
Shots on target
65%
23%
Total shots
75%
19%
Shots in box
49%
41%
Blocked shots
47%
16%
37%
Corners
69%
21%
Fouls
45%
47%
Offsides
44%
24%
32%
Yellow cards
30%
20%
51%
Red cards
87%
GK saves
25%
16%
60%
Model-implied probabilities from the predicted rates (Poisson approximation, teams treated as independent).
Model details — best model per statistic (lgbm, lstm_mlp_multi, lstm_mlp_single, xgb) · snapshot 2b4a317d · computed
| Target | Model / policy | Variant | PCA | MAE | RMSE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWAY_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.415 | 1.901 |
| AWAY_CORNERS | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.978 | 2.516 |
| AWAY_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.945 | 3.863 |
| AWAY_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.554 | 1.986 |
| AWAY_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.860 | 1.106 |
| AWAY_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.163 | 1.495 |
| AWAY_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 64.581 | 82.146 |
| AWAY_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.507 | 5.837 |
| AWAY_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.319 | 7.916 |
| AWAY_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 0.193 | 0.337 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_IN_BOX | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.301 | 3.098 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.707 | 2.176 |
| AWAY_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.378 | 4.309 |
| AWAY_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.120 | 1.410 |
| HOME_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cards_cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.584 | 2.119 |
| HOME_CORNERS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.205 | 2.800 |
| HOME_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.857 | 3.742 |
| HOME_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.414 | 1.804 |
| HOME_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.963 | 1.223 |
| HOME_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.209 | 1.554 |
| HOME_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 65.331 | 82.955 |
| HOME_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.216 | 5.517 |
| HOME_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.318 | 7.914 |
| HOME_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.153 | 0.306 |
| HOME_SHOTS_IN_BOX | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.516 | 3.381 |
| HOME_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.856 | 2.355 |
| HOME_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.703 | 4.734 |
| HOME_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.056 | 1.328 |
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+