Primeira Liga· Regular Season - 18· · referee: not announced
Predicted match statistics
| Stat | Home | safe | safer | Away | safe | safer | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.97 | 1.01–2.93 | 0.75–3.19 | 0.67 | 0.00–1.53 | 0.00–1.77 | 2.640.31–4.97 |
| Shots on target | 5.62 | 3.76–7.48 | 3.27–7.98 | 2.88 | 1.17–4.58 | 0.70–5.05 | 8.503.97–13.03 |
| Total shots | 14.81 | 11.10–18.51 | 10.07–19.54 | 8.90 | 5.52–12.28 | 4.59–13.21 | 23.7114.66–32.75 |
| Shots in box | 10.53 | 8.02–13.05 | 7.15–13.92 | 4.92 | 2.61–7.22 | 1.82–8.01 | 15.458.97–21.93 |
| Blocked shots | 4.08 | 2.50–5.67 | 1.96–6.20 | 2.41 | 0.99–3.82 | 0.51–4.31 | 6.492.47–10.51 |
| Corners | 5.68 | 3.47–7.88 | 2.88–8.48 | 2.84 | 0.86–4.82 | 0.32–5.36 | 8.523.20–13.83 |
| Possession % | 61.78 | 55.46–68.10 | 53.87–69.70 | 38.23 | 31.91–44.55 | 30.32–46.15 | — |
| Passes | 601 | 536–667 | 518–684 | 368 | 304–433 | 286–450 | 969804–1134 |
| Pass accuracy % | 80.52 | 76.31–84.74 | 75.00–86.04 | 70.14 | 65.63–74.65 | 64.30–75.98 | — |
| Fouls | 11.62 | 8.77–14.48 | 7.88–15.37 | 11.43 | 8.49–14.38 | 7.57–15.30 | 23.0615.45–30.66 |
| Offsides | 2.43 | 1.22–3.64 | 0.87–3.98 | 1.06 | 0.00–2.22 | 0.00–2.55 | 3.480.43–6.53 |
| Yellow cards | 1.51 | 0.45–2.56 | 0.18–2.83 | 2.37 | 1.25–3.49 | 0.96–3.78 | 3.881.14–6.62 |
| Red cards | 0.06 | 0.00–0.21 | 0.00–0.37 | 0.10 | 0.00–0.29 | 0.00–0.43 | 0.160.00–0.80 |
| GK saves | 1.94 | 0.52–3.35 | 0.13–3.74 | 3.24 | 1.69–4.80 | 1.26–5.23 | 5.181.39–8.97 |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic
Who wins each stat?
home draw away
Goals
68%
20%
Shots on target
78%
Total shots
87%
Shots in box
91%
Blocked shots
68%
13%
19%
Corners
79%
Fouls
47%
44%
Offsides
68%
18%
15%
Yellow cards
24%
19%
57%
Red cards
86%
GK saves
21%
16%
64%
Model-implied probabilities from the predicted rates (Poisson approximation, teams treated as independent).
Model details — best model per statistic (lgbm, lstm_mlp_multi, lstm_mlp_single, xgb) · snapshot 2b4a317d · computed
| Target | Model / policy | Variant | PCA | MAE | RMSE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWAY_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.415 | 1.901 |
| AWAY_CORNERS | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.978 | 2.516 |
| AWAY_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.945 | 3.863 |
| AWAY_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.554 | 1.986 |
| AWAY_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.860 | 1.106 |
| AWAY_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.163 | 1.495 |
| AWAY_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 64.581 | 82.146 |
| AWAY_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.507 | 5.837 |
| AWAY_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.319 | 7.916 |
| AWAY_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 0.193 | 0.337 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_IN_BOX | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.301 | 3.098 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.707 | 2.176 |
| AWAY_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.378 | 4.309 |
| AWAY_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.120 | 1.410 |
| HOME_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cards_cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.584 | 2.119 |
| HOME_CORNERS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.205 | 2.800 |
| HOME_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.857 | 3.742 |
| HOME_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.414 | 1.804 |
| HOME_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.963 | 1.223 |
| HOME_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.209 | 1.554 |
| HOME_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 65.331 | 82.955 |
| HOME_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.216 | 5.517 |
| HOME_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.318 | 7.914 |
| HOME_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.153 | 0.306 |
| HOME_SHOTS_IN_BOX | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.516 | 3.381 |
| HOME_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.856 | 2.355 |
| HOME_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.703 | 4.734 |
| HOME_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.056 | 1.328 |
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+