Primeira Liga· Regular Season - 22· · referee: not announced
Predicted match statistics
| Stat | Home | safe | safer | Away | safe | safer | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 0.70 | 0.00–1.66 | 0.00–1.92 | 2.21 | 1.35–3.07 | 1.10–3.31 | 2.900.57–5.23 |
| Shots on target | 2.59 | 0.73–4.45 | 0.23–4.94 | 6.01 | 4.30–7.72 | 3.83–8.18 | 8.604.07–13.13 |
| Total shots | 8.65 | 4.95–12.35 | 3.92–13.38 | 16.26 | 12.88–19.64 | 11.95–20.57 | 24.9115.86–33.95 |
| Shots in box | 5.22 | 2.71–7.74 | 1.84–8.60 | 11.35 | 9.05–13.65 | 8.25–14.45 | 16.5810.10–23.05 |
| Blocked shots | 2.49 | 0.90–4.07 | 0.37–4.61 | 4.01 | 2.59–5.42 | 2.10–5.91 | 6.492.47–10.51 |
| Corners | 2.85 | 0.65–5.06 | 0.05–5.66 | 6.68 | 4.71–8.66 | 4.17–9.20 | 9.544.22–14.85 |
| Possession % | 37.09 | 30.77–43.41 | 29.18–45.01 | 62.90 | 56.58–69.22 | 54.99–70.82 | — |
| Passes | 337 | 272–402 | 254–420 | 545 | 481–610 | 463–628 | 883717–1048 |
| Pass accuracy % | 66.91 | 62.70–71.13 | 61.40–72.43 | 76.10 | 71.59–80.61 | 70.26–81.94 | — |
| Fouls | 11.97 | 9.11–14.82 | 8.22–15.71 | 11.38 | 8.43–14.32 | 7.51–15.24 | 23.3415.74–30.95 |
| Offsides | 1.29 | 0.08–2.50 | 0.00–2.84 | 2.61 | 1.44–3.77 | 1.11–4.10 | 3.900.85–6.95 |
| Yellow cards | 2.59 | 1.53–3.64 | 1.26–3.91 | 1.85 | 0.73–2.97 | 0.44–3.26 | 4.441.70–7.18 |
| Red cards | 0.07 | 0.00–0.22 | 0.00–0.37 | 0.05 | 0.00–0.25 | 0.00–0.39 | 0.120.00–0.76 |
| GK saves | 3.31 | 1.90–4.73 | 1.51–5.12 | 2.09 | 0.54–3.64 | 0.11–4.08 | 5.401.62–9.19 |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic
Who wins each stat?
home draw away
Goals
18%
72%
Shots on target
84%
Total shots
93%
Shots in box
92%
Blocked shots
21%
14%
65%
Corners
86%
Fouls
51%
41%
Offsides
17%
17%
66%
Yellow cards
54%
19%
27%
Red cards
89%
GK saves
62%
16%
23%
Model-implied probabilities from the predicted rates (Poisson approximation, teams treated as independent).
Model details — best model per statistic (lgbm, lstm_mlp_multi, lstm_mlp_single, xgb) · snapshot 2b4a317d · computed
| Target | Model / policy | Variant | PCA | MAE | RMSE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWAY_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.415 | 1.901 |
| AWAY_CORNERS | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.978 | 2.516 |
| AWAY_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.945 | 3.863 |
| AWAY_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.554 | 1.986 |
| AWAY_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.860 | 1.106 |
| AWAY_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.163 | 1.495 |
| AWAY_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 64.581 | 82.146 |
| AWAY_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.507 | 5.837 |
| AWAY_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.319 | 7.916 |
| AWAY_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 0.193 | 0.337 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_IN_BOX | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.301 | 3.098 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.707 | 2.176 |
| AWAY_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.378 | 4.309 |
| AWAY_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.120 | 1.410 |
| HOME_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cards_cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.584 | 2.119 |
| HOME_CORNERS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.205 | 2.800 |
| HOME_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.857 | 3.742 |
| HOME_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.414 | 1.804 |
| HOME_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.963 | 1.223 |
| HOME_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.209 | 1.554 |
| HOME_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 65.331 | 82.955 |
| HOME_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.216 | 5.517 |
| HOME_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.318 | 7.914 |
| HOME_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.153 | 0.306 |
| HOME_SHOTS_IN_BOX | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.516 | 3.381 |
| HOME_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.856 | 2.355 |
| HOME_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.703 | 4.734 |
| HOME_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.056 | 1.328 |
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+