Primeira Liga· Regular Season - 24· · referee: not announced
Predicted match statistics
| Stat | Home | safe | safer | Away | safe | safer | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.19 | 0.23–2.15 | 0.00–2.41 | 1.39 | 0.53–2.25 | 0.29–2.50 | 2.580.25–4.91 |
| Shots on target | 4.12 | 2.26–5.97 | 1.76–6.47 | 4.85 | 3.14–6.55 | 2.67–7.02 | 8.964.43–13.49 |
| Total shots | 13.42 | 9.72–17.13 | 8.69–18.16 | 14.46 | 11.09–17.84 | 10.15–18.77 | 27.8918.84–36.93 |
| Shots in box | 9.38 | 6.87–11.90 | 6.00–12.76 | 8.52 | 6.22–10.82 | 5.42–11.62 | 17.9111.43–24.39 |
| Blocked shots | 3.64 | 2.06–5.23 | 1.53–5.76 | 3.55 | 2.13–4.96 | 1.64–5.45 | 7.193.17–11.21 |
| Corners | 4.48 | 2.28–6.69 | 1.68–7.28 | 5.53 | 3.55–7.50 | 3.01–8.04 | 10.014.69–15.33 |
| Possession % | 44.68 | 38.36–51.00 | 36.77–52.59 | 55.38 | 49.06–61.70 | 47.46–63.30 | — |
| Passes | 360 | 295–426 | 277–443 | 449 | 384–513 | 366–531 | 809644–974 |
| Pass accuracy % | 67.06 | 62.84–71.28 | 61.54–72.58 | 70.45 | 65.95–74.96 | 64.62–76.29 | — |
| Fouls | 13.07 | 10.21–15.93 | 9.33–16.81 | 13.32 | 10.38–16.27 | 9.46–17.18 | 26.3918.79–34.00 |
| Offsides | 1.77 | 0.56–2.98 | 0.21–3.32 | 1.75 | 0.58–2.91 | 0.25–3.24 | 3.510.46–6.56 |
| Yellow cards | 1.99 | 0.93–3.04 | 0.66–3.31 | 1.91 | 0.79–3.03 | 0.50–3.32 | 3.891.16–6.63 |
| Red cards | 0.13 | 0.00–0.28 | 0.00–0.43 | 0.07 | 0.00–0.27 | 0.00–0.41 | 0.200.00–0.84 |
| GK saves | 3.11 | 1.69–4.52 | 1.30–4.91 | 2.58 | 1.03–4.14 | 0.60–4.57 | 5.691.90–9.48 |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic
Who wins each stat?
home draw away
Goals
32%
26%
42%
Shots on target
34%
13%
53%
Total shots
39%
54%
Shots in box
53%
37%
Blocked shots
44%
15%
41%
Corners
31%
57%
Fouls
44%
48%
Offsides
39%
22%
38%
Yellow cards
41%
21%
38%
Red cards
83%
GK saves
50%
17%
33%
Model-implied probabilities from the predicted rates (Poisson approximation, teams treated as independent).
Model details — best model per statistic (lgbm, lstm_mlp_multi, lstm_mlp_single, xgb) · snapshot 2b4a317d · computed
| Target | Model / policy | Variant | PCA | MAE | RMSE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWAY_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.415 | 1.901 |
| AWAY_CORNERS | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.978 | 2.516 |
| AWAY_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.945 | 3.863 |
| AWAY_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.554 | 1.986 |
| AWAY_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.860 | 1.106 |
| AWAY_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.163 | 1.495 |
| AWAY_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 64.581 | 82.146 |
| AWAY_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.507 | 5.837 |
| AWAY_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.319 | 7.916 |
| AWAY_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 0.193 | 0.337 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_IN_BOX | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.301 | 3.098 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.707 | 2.176 |
| AWAY_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.378 | 4.309 |
| AWAY_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.120 | 1.410 |
| HOME_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cards_cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.584 | 2.119 |
| HOME_CORNERS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.205 | 2.800 |
| HOME_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.857 | 3.742 |
| HOME_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.414 | 1.804 |
| HOME_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.963 | 1.223 |
| HOME_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.209 | 1.554 |
| HOME_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 65.331 | 82.955 |
| HOME_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.216 | 5.517 |
| HOME_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.318 | 7.914 |
| HOME_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.153 | 0.306 |
| HOME_SHOTS_IN_BOX | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.516 | 3.381 |
| HOME_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.856 | 2.355 |
| HOME_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.703 | 4.734 |
| HOME_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.056 | 1.328 |
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+