Primeira Liga· Regular Season - 26· · referee: not announced
Predicted match statistics
| Stat | Home | safe | safer | Away | safe | safer | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 2.70 | 1.73–3.66 | 1.47–3.92 | 0.74 | 0.00–1.60 | 0.00–1.84 | 3.431.11–5.76 |
| Shots on target | 6.99 | 5.13–8.84 | 4.63–9.34 | 2.21 | 0.50–3.92 | 0.04–4.39 | 9.204.67–13.73 |
| Total shots | 18.22 | 14.52–21.93 | 13.49–22.96 | 6.43 | 3.05–9.81 | 2.12–10.74 | 24.6515.61–33.69 |
| Shots in box | 13.01 | 10.49–15.52 | 9.63–16.39 | 4.63 | 2.33–6.93 | 1.53–7.73 | 17.6411.16–24.12 |
| Blocked shots | 4.70 | 3.12–6.29 | 2.58–6.82 | 2.19 | 0.78–3.61 | 0.29–4.09 | 6.892.87–10.91 |
| Corners | 7.37 | 5.17–9.58 | 4.57–10.17 | 3.05 | 1.07–5.03 | 0.53–5.57 | 10.425.11–15.74 |
| Possession % | 64.60 | 58.28–70.91 | 56.68–72.51 | 34.97 | 28.65–41.28 | 27.05–42.88 | — |
| Passes | 565 | 499–630 | 482–647 | 309 | 244–373 | 227–391 | 873708–1038 |
| Pass accuracy % | 84.96 | 80.75–89.18 | 79.44–90.48 | 70.24 | 65.73–74.75 | 64.40–76.08 | — |
| Fouls | 10.87 | 8.01–13.73 | 7.13–14.61 | 13.53 | 10.58–16.48 | 9.67–17.39 | 24.4016.79–32.00 |
| Offsides | 1.81 | 0.60–3.02 | 0.26–3.37 | 1.14 | 0.00–2.31 | 0.00–2.64 | 2.960.00–6.01 |
| Yellow cards | 1.19 | 0.13–2.24 | 0.00–2.52 | 1.97 | 0.85–3.09 | 0.56–3.38 | 3.160.42–5.90 |
| Red cards | 0.02 | 0.00–0.18 | 0.00–0.33 | 0.08 | 0.00–0.27 | 0.00–0.42 | 0.100.00–0.75 |
| GK saves | 1.62 | 0.21–3.04 | 0.00–3.42 | 3.69 | 2.13–5.24 | 1.70–5.67 | 5.311.52–9.10 |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic
Who wins each stat?
home draw away
Goals
79%
14%
Shots on target
93%
Total shots
99%
Shots in box
97%
Blocked shots
78%
Corners
89%
Fouls
26%
67%
Offsides
53%
23%
24%
Yellow cards
23%
22%
55%
Red cards
90%
GK saves
75%
Model-implied probabilities from the predicted rates (Poisson approximation, teams treated as independent).
Model details — best model per statistic (lgbm, lstm_mlp_multi, lstm_mlp_single, xgb) · snapshot 2b4a317d · computed
| Target | Model / policy | Variant | PCA | MAE | RMSE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWAY_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.415 | 1.901 |
| AWAY_CORNERS | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.978 | 2.516 |
| AWAY_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.945 | 3.863 |
| AWAY_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.554 | 1.986 |
| AWAY_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.860 | 1.106 |
| AWAY_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.163 | 1.495 |
| AWAY_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 64.581 | 82.146 |
| AWAY_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.507 | 5.837 |
| AWAY_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.319 | 7.916 |
| AWAY_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 0.193 | 0.337 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_IN_BOX | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.301 | 3.098 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.707 | 2.176 |
| AWAY_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.378 | 4.309 |
| AWAY_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.120 | 1.410 |
| HOME_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cards_cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.584 | 2.119 |
| HOME_CORNERS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.205 | 2.800 |
| HOME_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.857 | 3.742 |
| HOME_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.414 | 1.804 |
| HOME_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.963 | 1.223 |
| HOME_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.209 | 1.554 |
| HOME_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 65.331 | 82.955 |
| HOME_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.216 | 5.517 |
| HOME_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.318 | 7.914 |
| HOME_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.153 | 0.306 |
| HOME_SHOTS_IN_BOX | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.516 | 3.381 |
| HOME_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.856 | 2.355 |
| HOME_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.703 | 4.734 |
| HOME_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.056 | 1.328 |
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+