Primeira Liga· Regular Season - 28· · referee: not announced
Predicted match statistics
| Stat | Home | safe | safer | Away | safe | safer | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.20 | 0.23–2.16 | 0.00–2.42 | 1.33 | 0.47–2.19 | 0.22–2.44 | 2.530.20–4.85 |
| Shots on target | 3.96 | 2.10–5.81 | 1.60–6.31 | 4.41 | 2.70–6.12 | 2.23–6.59 | 8.373.84–12.90 |
| Total shots | 13.17 | 9.47–16.87 | 8.44–17.90 | 13.52 | 10.14–16.90 | 9.21–17.83 | 26.6917.65–35.74 |
| Shots in box | 8.05 | 5.53–10.57 | 4.67–11.43 | 7.94 | 5.64–10.24 | 4.84–11.04 | 15.999.51–22.47 |
| Blocked shots | 3.58 | 1.99–5.16 | 1.46–5.69 | 2.86 | 1.45–4.28 | 0.96–4.76 | 6.442.42–10.46 |
| Corners | 4.22 | 2.01–6.42 | 1.42–7.02 | 5.42 | 3.45–7.40 | 2.91–7.94 | 9.644.32–14.96 |
| Possession % | 46.90 | 40.58–53.21 | 38.98–54.81 | 52.54 | 46.22–58.86 | 44.63–60.46 | — |
| Passes | 358 | 293–423 | 275–441 | 423 | 358–487 | 340–505 | 780615–945 |
| Pass accuracy % | 68.27 | 64.05–72.48 | 62.75–73.78 | 71.82 | 67.31–76.33 | 65.98–77.66 | — |
| Fouls | 13.02 | 10.16–15.88 | 9.28–16.76 | 14.22 | 11.28–17.17 | 10.36–18.09 | 27.2419.64–34.85 |
| Offsides | 1.50 | 0.29–2.71 | 0.00–3.06 | 1.83 | 0.67–2.99 | 0.34–3.33 | 3.330.28–6.38 |
| Yellow cards | 2.27 | 1.22–3.33 | 0.95–3.60 | 1.77 | 0.65–2.89 | 0.36–3.18 | 4.041.31–6.78 |
| Red cards | 0.08 | 0.00–0.23 | 0.00–0.39 | 0.10 | 0.00–0.29 | 0.00–0.44 | 0.180.00–0.83 |
| GK saves | 2.82 | 1.41–4.24 | 1.02–4.62 | 2.56 | 1.01–4.11 | 0.57–4.54 | 5.381.59–9.17 |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic
Who wins each stat?
home draw away
Goals
33%
27%
40%
Shots on target
37%
14%
49%
Total shots
43%
49%
Shots in box
46%
44%
Blocked shots
53%
15%
31%
Corners
29%
59%
Fouls
37%
55%
Offsides
32%
23%
46%
Yellow cards
50%
20%
30%
Red cards
84%
GK saves
46%
18%
37%
Model-implied probabilities from the predicted rates (Poisson approximation, teams treated as independent).
Model details — best model per statistic (lgbm, lstm_mlp_multi, lstm_mlp_single, xgb) · snapshot 2b4a317d · computed
| Target | Model / policy | Variant | PCA | MAE | RMSE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWAY_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.415 | 1.901 |
| AWAY_CORNERS | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.978 | 2.516 |
| AWAY_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.945 | 3.863 |
| AWAY_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.554 | 1.986 |
| AWAY_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.860 | 1.106 |
| AWAY_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.163 | 1.495 |
| AWAY_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 64.581 | 82.146 |
| AWAY_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.507 | 5.837 |
| AWAY_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.319 | 7.916 |
| AWAY_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 0.193 | 0.337 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_IN_BOX | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.301 | 3.098 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.707 | 2.176 |
| AWAY_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.378 | 4.309 |
| AWAY_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.120 | 1.410 |
| HOME_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cards_cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.584 | 2.119 |
| HOME_CORNERS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.205 | 2.800 |
| HOME_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.857 | 3.742 |
| HOME_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.414 | 1.804 |
| HOME_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.963 | 1.223 |
| HOME_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.209 | 1.554 |
| HOME_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 65.331 | 82.955 |
| HOME_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.216 | 5.517 |
| HOME_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.318 | 7.914 |
| HOME_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.153 | 0.306 |
| HOME_SHOTS_IN_BOX | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.516 | 3.381 |
| HOME_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.856 | 2.355 |
| HOME_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.703 | 4.734 |
| HOME_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.056 | 1.328 |
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+