Primeira Liga· Regular Season - 29· · referee: not announced
Predicted match statistics
| Stat | Home | safe | safer | Away | safe | safer | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.11 | 0.15–2.07 | 0.00–2.33 | 1.74 | 0.88–2.60 | 0.63–2.84 | 2.850.52–5.18 |
| Shots on target | 3.81 | 1.95–5.66 | 1.45–6.16 | 5.29 | 3.58–7.00 | 3.11–7.47 | 9.104.57–13.63 |
| Total shots | 10.59 | 6.88–14.29 | 5.85–15.32 | 13.76 | 10.38–17.14 | 9.45–18.07 | 24.3515.30–33.39 |
| Shots in box | 6.47 | 3.95–8.98 | 3.09–9.85 | 9.99 | 7.69–12.29 | 6.89–13.09 | 16.469.98–22.94 |
| Blocked shots | 3.17 | 1.59–4.76 | 1.05–5.29 | 3.38 | 1.96–4.79 | 1.48–5.28 | 6.552.53–10.57 |
| Corners | 4.12 | 1.92–6.33 | 1.32–6.93 | 5.47 | 3.50–7.45 | 2.96–7.99 | 9.604.28–14.91 |
| Possession % | 44.38 | 38.06–50.70 | 36.47–52.30 | 55.67 | 49.35–61.98 | 47.75–63.58 | — |
| Passes | 373 | 308–438 | 290–456 | 455 | 391–520 | 373–537 | 828663–993 |
| Pass accuracy % | 74.13 | 69.91–78.34 | 68.61–79.64 | 81.95 | 77.44–86.45 | 76.11–87.78 | — |
| Fouls | 11.82 | 8.96–14.68 | 8.08–15.56 | 13.58 | 10.63–16.53 | 9.72–17.44 | 25.4017.79–33.00 |
| Offsides | 1.55 | 0.34–2.75 | 0.00–3.10 | 1.63 | 0.47–2.79 | 0.14–3.13 | 3.180.13–6.23 |
| Yellow cards | 2.41 | 1.36–3.47 | 1.08–3.74 | 2.14 | 1.02–3.26 | 0.73–3.55 | 4.551.81–7.29 |
| Red cards | 0.07 | 0.00–0.23 | 0.00–0.38 | 0.08 | 0.00–0.27 | 0.00–0.41 | 0.150.00–0.79 |
| GK saves | 3.00 | 1.59–4.42 | 1.20–4.81 | 2.47 | 0.92–4.03 | 0.49–4.46 | 5.471.69–9.26 |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic
Who wins each stat?
home draw away
Goals
24%
24%
52%
Shots on target
25%
63%
Total shots
23%
71%
Shots in box
16%
77%
Blocked shots
39%
16%
45%
Corners
27%
61%
Fouls
33%
60%
Offsides
36%
24%
40%
Yellow cards
45%
19%
36%
Red cards
87%
GK saves
50%
17%
33%
Model-implied probabilities from the predicted rates (Poisson approximation, teams treated as independent).
Model details — best model per statistic (lgbm, lstm_mlp_multi, lstm_mlp_single, xgb) · snapshot 2b4a317d · computed
| Target | Model / policy | Variant | PCA | MAE | RMSE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWAY_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.415 | 1.901 |
| AWAY_CORNERS | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.978 | 2.516 |
| AWAY_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.945 | 3.863 |
| AWAY_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.554 | 1.986 |
| AWAY_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.860 | 1.106 |
| AWAY_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.163 | 1.495 |
| AWAY_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 64.581 | 82.146 |
| AWAY_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.507 | 5.837 |
| AWAY_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.319 | 7.916 |
| AWAY_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 0.193 | 0.337 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_IN_BOX | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.301 | 3.098 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.707 | 2.176 |
| AWAY_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.378 | 4.309 |
| AWAY_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.120 | 1.410 |
| HOME_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cards_cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.584 | 2.119 |
| HOME_CORNERS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.205 | 2.800 |
| HOME_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.857 | 3.742 |
| HOME_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.414 | 1.804 |
| HOME_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.963 | 1.223 |
| HOME_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.209 | 1.554 |
| HOME_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 65.331 | 82.955 |
| HOME_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.216 | 5.517 |
| HOME_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.318 | 7.914 |
| HOME_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.153 | 0.306 |
| HOME_SHOTS_IN_BOX | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.516 | 3.381 |
| HOME_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.856 | 2.355 |
| HOME_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.703 | 4.734 |
| HOME_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.056 | 1.328 |
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+