Primeira Liga· Regular Season - 33· · referee: not announced
Predicted match statistics
| Stat | Home | safe | safer | Away | safe | safer | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.52 | 0.55–2.48 | 0.29–2.74 | 1.25 | 0.39–2.11 | 0.14–2.35 | 2.760.43–5.09 |
| Shots on target | 4.61 | 2.75–6.46 | 2.25–6.96 | 3.50 | 1.79–5.20 | 1.32–5.67 | 8.103.57–12.63 |
| Total shots | 14.62 | 10.92–18.32 | 9.89–19.35 | 10.73 | 7.35–14.11 | 6.42–15.04 | 25.3516.31–34.39 |
| Shots in box | 8.94 | 6.42–11.45 | 5.56–12.32 | 7.84 | 5.54–10.14 | 4.74–10.94 | 16.7810.30–23.26 |
| Blocked shots | 3.49 | 1.90–5.07 | 1.37–5.61 | 2.90 | 1.49–4.32 | 1.00–4.80 | 6.392.37–10.41 |
| Corners | 4.98 | 2.78–7.19 | 2.18–7.78 | 4.16 | 2.18–6.14 | 1.65–6.68 | 9.153.83–14.46 |
| Possession % | 56.05 | 49.73–62.37 | 48.13–63.96 | 44.56 | 38.25–50.88 | 36.65–52.48 | — |
| Passes | 514 | 449–579 | 431–597 | 390 | 325–455 | 308–472 | 904739–1069 |
| Pass accuracy % | 75.60 | 71.38–79.81 | 70.08–81.11 | 71.23 | 66.72–75.74 | 65.39–77.07 | — |
| Fouls | 11.19 | 8.34–14.05 | 7.45–14.94 | 12.42 | 9.48–15.37 | 8.56–16.29 | 23.6216.01–31.22 |
| Offsides | 1.47 | 0.26–2.68 | 0.00–3.02 | 1.53 | 0.37–2.69 | 0.04–3.03 | 3.000.00–6.05 |
| Yellow cards | 1.88 | 0.82–2.93 | 0.55–3.21 | 1.86 | 0.74–2.98 | 0.45–3.27 | 3.741.00–6.48 |
| Red cards | 0.05 | 0.00–0.20 | 0.00–0.35 | 0.09 | 0.00–0.28 | 0.00–0.42 | 0.140.00–0.78 |
| GK saves | 2.44 | 1.02–3.85 | 0.63–4.24 | 3.06 | 1.51–4.62 | 1.08–5.05 | 5.501.71–9.29 |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic
Who wins each stat?
home draw away
Goals
43%
25%
31%
Shots on target
58%
13%
28%
Total shots
75%
19%
Shots in box
56%
35%
Blocked shots
51%
16%
33%
Corners
54%
33%
Fouls
36%
56%
Offsides
36%
24%
39%
Yellow cards
40%
21%
39%
Red cards
88%
GK saves
31%
17%
52%
Model-implied probabilities from the predicted rates (Poisson approximation, teams treated as independent).
Model details — best model per statistic (lgbm, lstm_mlp_multi, lstm_mlp_single, xgb) · snapshot 2b4a317d · computed
| Target | Model / policy | Variant | PCA | MAE | RMSE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWAY_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.415 | 1.901 |
| AWAY_CORNERS | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.978 | 2.516 |
| AWAY_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.945 | 3.863 |
| AWAY_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.554 | 1.986 |
| AWAY_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.860 | 1.106 |
| AWAY_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.163 | 1.495 |
| AWAY_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 64.581 | 82.146 |
| AWAY_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.507 | 5.837 |
| AWAY_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.319 | 7.916 |
| AWAY_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 0.193 | 0.337 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_IN_BOX | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.301 | 3.098 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.707 | 2.176 |
| AWAY_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.378 | 4.309 |
| AWAY_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.120 | 1.410 |
| HOME_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cards_cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.584 | 2.119 |
| HOME_CORNERS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.205 | 2.800 |
| HOME_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.857 | 3.742 |
| HOME_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.414 | 1.804 |
| HOME_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.963 | 1.223 |
| HOME_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.209 | 1.554 |
| HOME_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 65.331 | 82.955 |
| HOME_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.216 | 5.517 |
| HOME_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.318 | 7.914 |
| HOME_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.153 | 0.306 |
| HOME_SHOTS_IN_BOX | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.516 | 3.381 |
| HOME_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.856 | 2.355 |
| HOME_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.703 | 4.734 |
| HOME_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.056 | 1.328 |
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+