Süper Lig· Regular Season - 5· · referee: Yasin Kol, Türkiye
Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoff| Stat | Home | safe | safer | actual | Away | safe | safer | actual | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.28 | 0.32–2.24 | 0.06–2.50 | 1.00 | 1.22 | 0.36–2.08 | 0.12–2.33 | 2.00 | 2.51act. 3.00 |
| Shots on target | 3.88 | 2.03–5.74 | 1.53–6.24 | 5.00 | 4.76 | 3.05–6.47 | 2.58–6.94 | 3.00 | 8.64act. 8.00 |
| Total shots | 12.38 | 8.68–16.08 | 7.64–17.11 | 15.00 | 13.94 | 10.56–17.31 | 9.63–18.24 | 16.00 | 26.31act. 31.00 |
| Shots in box | 7.70 | 5.19–10.22 | 4.32–11.08 | 12.00 | 7.71 | 5.41–10.01 | 4.62–10.81 | 9.00 | 15.42act. 21.00 |
| Blocked shots | 3.42 | 1.84–5.00 | 1.30–5.54 | 4.00 | 3.11 | 1.70–4.53 | 1.21–5.01 | 3.00 | 6.53act. 7.00 |
| Corners | 4.39 | 2.19–6.60 | 1.59–7.19 | 8.00 | 4.59 | 2.62–6.57 | 2.08–7.11 | 9.00 | 8.99act. 17.00 |
| Possession % | 51.62 | 45.30–57.93 | 43.70–59.53 | 42.00 | 47.84 | 41.52–54.16 | 39.92–55.75 | 58.00 | — |
| Passes | 412 | 347–478 | 329–495 | 297 | 410 | 345–475 | 328–492 | 425 | 822act. 722 |
| Pass accuracy % | 81.34 | 77.13–85.56 | 75.83–86.86 | 80.00 | 80.37 | 75.86–84.87 | 74.53–86.21 | 84.00 | — |
| Fouls | 11.33 | 8.47–14.19 | 7.59–15.07 | 18.00 | 14.68 | 11.73–17.62 | 10.81–18.54 | 14.00 | 26.00act. 32.00 |
| Offsides | 1.76 | 0.55–2.97 | 0.21–3.31 | 1.00 | 1.79 | 0.62–2.95 | 0.29–3.28 | 1.00 | 3.55act. 2.00 |
| Yellow cards | 2.16 | 1.10–3.21 | 0.83–3.48 | 3.00 | 2.56 | 1.44–3.68 | 1.15–3.97 | 3.00 | 4.72act. 6.00 |
| Red cards | 0.14 | 0.00–0.29 | 0.00–0.45 | 0.00 | 0.10 | 0.00–0.29 | 0.00–0.43 | 0.00 | 0.24act. 0.00 |
| GK saves | 2.64 | 1.23–4.06 | 0.84–4.45 | 1.00 | 2.83 | 1.27–4.38 | 0.84–4.81 | 4.00 | 5.47act. 5.00 |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Who wins each stat?
home draw away
Goals
38%
27%
35%
Shots on target
32%
13%
55%
Total shots
34%
58%
Shots in box
45%
45%
Blocked shots
47%
16%
37%
Corners
41%
13%
46%
Fouls
22%
71%
Offsides
38%
22%
39%
Yellow cards
33%
19%
48%
Red cards
80%
GK saves
38%
17%
44%
Model-implied probabilities from the predicted rates (Poisson approximation, teams treated as independent).
Model details — best model per statistic (lgbm, lstm_mlp_multi, lstm_mlp_single, xgb) · snapshot 2b4a317d · computed
| Target | Model / policy | Variant | PCA | MAE | RMSE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWAY_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.415 | 1.901 |
| AWAY_CORNERS | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.978 | 2.516 |
| AWAY_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.945 | 3.863 |
| AWAY_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.554 | 1.986 |
| AWAY_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.860 | 1.106 |
| AWAY_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.163 | 1.495 |
| AWAY_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 64.581 | 82.146 |
| AWAY_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.507 | 5.837 |
| AWAY_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.319 | 7.916 |
| AWAY_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 0.193 | 0.337 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_IN_BOX | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.301 | 3.098 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.707 | 2.176 |
| AWAY_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.378 | 4.309 |
| AWAY_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.120 | 1.410 |
| HOME_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cards_cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.584 | 2.119 |
| HOME_CORNERS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.205 | 2.800 |
| HOME_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.857 | 3.742 |
| HOME_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.414 | 1.804 |
| HOME_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.963 | 1.223 |
| HOME_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.209 | 1.554 |
| HOME_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 65.331 | 82.955 |
| HOME_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.216 | 5.517 |
| HOME_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.318 | 7.914 |
| HOME_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.153 | 0.306 |
| HOME_SHOTS_IN_BOX | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.516 | 3.381 |
| HOME_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.856 | 2.355 |
| HOME_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.703 | 4.734 |
| HOME_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.056 | 1.328 |
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+