Süper Lig· Regular Season - 6· · referee: not announced
Predicted match statistics
| Stat | Home | safe | safer | Away | safe | safer | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.11 | 0.15–2.08 | 0.00–2.34 | 1.29 | 0.43–2.15 | 0.19–2.40 | 2.410.08–4.74 |
| Shots on target | 3.51 | 1.66–5.37 | 1.16–5.87 | 4.30 | 2.60–6.01 | 2.13–6.48 | 7.813.28–12.34 |
| Total shots | 11.35 | 7.65–15.06 | 6.62–16.09 | 13.26 | 9.88–16.64 | 8.95–17.57 | 24.6115.57–33.66 |
| Shots in box | 7.07 | 4.55–9.58 | 3.69–10.45 | 8.81 | 6.51–11.11 | 5.71–11.91 | 15.889.40–22.36 |
| Blocked shots | 3.18 | 1.60–4.77 | 1.06–5.30 | 4.04 | 2.63–5.46 | 2.14–5.94 | 7.233.21–11.25 |
| Corners | 4.31 | 2.10–6.51 | 1.51–7.11 | 5.21 | 3.23–7.19 | 2.70–7.73 | 9.524.20–14.84 |
| Possession % | 41.21 | 34.89–47.53 | 33.30–49.13 | 59.43 | 53.11–65.75 | 51.51–67.34 | — |
| Passes | 359 | 294–424 | 276–442 | 539 | 474–603 | 457–621 | 898733–1063 |
| Pass accuracy % | 77.72 | 73.50–81.94 | 72.20–83.24 | 85.16 | 80.65–89.67 | 79.32–91.00 | — |
| Fouls | 13.36 | 10.50–16.22 | 9.62–17.10 | 12.19 | 9.24–15.13 | 8.33–16.05 | 25.5517.94–33.15 |
| Offsides | 1.53 | 0.32–2.74 | 0.00–3.08 | 1.65 | 0.48–2.81 | 0.15–3.14 | 3.180.13–6.22 |
| Yellow cards | 1.82 | 0.76–2.88 | 0.49–3.15 | 1.88 | 0.76–3.00 | 0.47–3.29 | 3.700.96–6.44 |
| Red cards | 0.07 | 0.00–0.22 | 0.00–0.38 | 0.08 | 0.00–0.27 | 0.00–0.41 | 0.150.00–0.79 |
| GK saves | 3.24 | 1.82–4.65 | 1.43–5.04 | 2.30 | 0.75–3.85 | 0.31–4.29 | 5.541.75–9.33 |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic
Who wins each stat?
home draw away
Goals
32%
27%
41%
Shots on target
32%
14%
54%
Total shots
31%
61%
Shots in box
29%
62%
Blocked shots
30%
14%
55%
Corners
32%
55%
Fouls
55%
37%
Offsides
36%
23%
41%
Yellow cards
38%
22%
40%
Red cards
87%
GK saves
57%
16%
27%
Model-implied probabilities from the predicted rates (Poisson approximation, teams treated as independent).
Model details — best model per statistic (lgbm, lstm_mlp_multi, lstm_mlp_single, xgb) · snapshot 2b4a317d · computed
| Target | Model / policy | Variant | PCA | MAE | RMSE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWAY_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.415 | 1.901 |
| AWAY_CORNERS | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.978 | 2.516 |
| AWAY_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.945 | 3.863 |
| AWAY_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.554 | 1.986 |
| AWAY_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.860 | 1.106 |
| AWAY_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.163 | 1.495 |
| AWAY_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 64.581 | 82.146 |
| AWAY_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.507 | 5.837 |
| AWAY_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.319 | 7.916 |
| AWAY_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 0.193 | 0.337 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_IN_BOX | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.301 | 3.098 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.707 | 2.176 |
| AWAY_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.378 | 4.309 |
| AWAY_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.120 | 1.410 |
| HOME_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cards_cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.584 | 2.119 |
| HOME_CORNERS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.205 | 2.800 |
| HOME_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.857 | 3.742 |
| HOME_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.414 | 1.804 |
| HOME_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.963 | 1.223 |
| HOME_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.209 | 1.554 |
| HOME_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 65.331 | 82.955 |
| HOME_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.216 | 5.517 |
| HOME_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.318 | 7.914 |
| HOME_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.153 | 0.306 |
| HOME_SHOTS_IN_BOX | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.516 | 3.381 |
| HOME_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.856 | 2.355 |
| HOME_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.703 | 4.734 |
| HOME_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.056 | 1.328 |
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+