Süper Lig· Regular Season - 8· · Papara Park· referee: not announced
Predicted match statistics
| Stat | Home | safe | safer | Away | safe | safer | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.30 | 0.34–2.27 | 0.08–2.53 | 1.49 | 0.63–2.35 | 0.38–2.60 | 2.790.47–5.12 |
| Shots on target | 4.65 | 2.80–6.51 | 2.30–7.01 | 4.68 | 2.97–6.39 | 2.50–6.85 | 9.334.80–13.86 |
| Total shots | 13.94 | 10.24–17.65 | 9.21–18.68 | 11.88 | 8.50–15.26 | 7.57–16.19 | 25.8216.78–34.87 |
| Shots in box | 8.45 | 5.93–10.96 | 5.07–11.83 | 8.83 | 6.53–11.13 | 5.73–11.93 | 17.2810.80–23.75 |
| Blocked shots | 3.36 | 1.77–4.94 | 1.24–5.48 | 3.47 | 2.06–4.89 | 1.57–5.37 | 6.832.81–10.85 |
| Corners | 5.53 | 3.32–7.73 | 2.73–8.33 | 5.28 | 3.30–7.26 | 2.76–7.80 | 10.815.49–16.12 |
| Possession % | 45.50 | 39.18–51.82 | 37.58–53.41 | 53.82 | 47.50–60.14 | 45.91–61.74 | — |
| Passes | 367 | 301–432 | 284–450 | 440 | 375–504 | 358–522 | 806641–971 |
| Pass accuracy % | 74.68 | 70.46–78.90 | 69.16–80.20 | 82.46 | 77.95–86.96 | 76.62–88.29 | — |
| Fouls | 11.35 | 8.49–14.21 | 7.61–15.09 | 14.84 | 11.90–17.79 | 10.98–18.70 | 26.1918.59–33.80 |
| Offsides | 2.33 | 1.12–3.54 | 0.77–3.88 | 1.94 | 0.78–3.11 | 0.45–3.44 | 4.271.22–7.32 |
| Yellow cards | 2.13 | 1.08–3.19 | 0.81–3.46 | 2.54 | 1.42–3.66 | 1.13–3.95 | 4.671.93–7.41 |
| Red cards | 0.07 | 0.00–0.22 | 0.00–0.38 | 0.11 | 0.00–0.30 | 0.00–0.45 | 0.180.00–0.82 |
| GK saves | 3.29 | 1.88–4.71 | 1.49–5.10 | 2.66 | 1.11–4.22 | 0.68–4.65 | 5.962.17–9.74 |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic
Who wins each stat?
home draw away
Goals
33%
25%
42%
Shots on target
43%
13%
44%
Total shots
62%
31%
Shots in box
42%
49%
Blocked shots
40%
16%
44%
Corners
47%
41%
Fouls
22%
72%
Offsides
47%
20%
33%
Yellow cards
33%
19%
48%
Red cards
84%
GK saves
52%
16%
32%
Model-implied probabilities from the predicted rates (Poisson approximation, teams treated as independent).
Model details — best model per statistic (lgbm, lstm_mlp_multi, lstm_mlp_single, xgb) · snapshot 2b4a317d · computed
| Target | Model / policy | Variant | PCA | MAE | RMSE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWAY_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.415 | 1.901 |
| AWAY_CORNERS | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.978 | 2.516 |
| AWAY_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.945 | 3.863 |
| AWAY_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.554 | 1.986 |
| AWAY_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.860 | 1.106 |
| AWAY_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.163 | 1.495 |
| AWAY_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 64.581 | 82.146 |
| AWAY_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.507 | 5.837 |
| AWAY_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.319 | 7.916 |
| AWAY_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 0.193 | 0.337 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_IN_BOX | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.301 | 3.098 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.707 | 2.176 |
| AWAY_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.378 | 4.309 |
| AWAY_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.120 | 1.410 |
| HOME_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cards_cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.584 | 2.119 |
| HOME_CORNERS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.205 | 2.800 |
| HOME_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.857 | 3.742 |
| HOME_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.414 | 1.804 |
| HOME_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.963 | 1.223 |
| HOME_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.209 | 1.554 |
| HOME_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 65.331 | 82.955 |
| HOME_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.216 | 5.517 |
| HOME_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.318 | 7.914 |
| HOME_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.153 | 0.306 |
| HOME_SHOTS_IN_BOX | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.516 | 3.381 |
| HOME_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.856 | 2.355 |
| HOME_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.703 | 4.734 |
| HOME_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.056 | 1.328 |
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+