Süper Lig· Regular Season - 9· · referee: not announced
Predicted match statistics
| Stat | Home | safe | safer | Away | safe | safer | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.69 | 0.73–2.65 | 0.47–2.91 | 0.95 | 0.09–1.81 | 0.00–2.06 | 2.640.31–4.97 |
| Shots on target | 5.48 | 3.62–7.33 | 3.12–7.83 | 3.33 | 1.62–5.04 | 1.15–5.51 | 8.814.28–13.34 |
| Total shots | 15.95 | 12.25–19.65 | 11.22–20.69 | 10.62 | 7.24–13.99 | 6.31–14.92 | 26.5717.52–35.61 |
| Shots in box | 9.98 | 7.46–12.49 | 6.60–13.36 | 6.76 | 4.46–9.06 | 3.66–9.86 | 16.7410.26–23.21 |
| Blocked shots | 3.94 | 2.36–5.52 | 1.82–6.06 | 3.01 | 1.60–4.43 | 1.11–4.91 | 6.952.93–10.97 |
| Corners | 5.80 | 3.60–8.01 | 3.00–8.60 | 4.20 | 2.22–6.18 | 1.69–6.72 | 10.014.69–15.32 |
| Possession % | 54.60 | 48.28–60.92 | 46.69–62.51 | 44.24 | 37.92–50.56 | 36.33–52.16 | — |
| Passes | 467 | 401–532 | 384–550 | 367 | 303–432 | 285–449 | 834669–999 |
| Pass accuracy % | 82.76 | 78.55–86.98 | 77.25–88.28 | 81.17 | 76.67–85.68 | 75.34–87.01 | — |
| Fouls | 11.76 | 8.90–14.61 | 8.01–15.50 | 12.48 | 9.54–15.43 | 8.62–16.34 | 24.2416.63–31.84 |
| Offsides | 1.37 | 0.16–2.58 | 0.00–2.93 | 1.39 | 0.23–2.55 | 0.00–2.88 | 2.760.00–5.81 |
| Yellow cards | 1.81 | 0.76–2.87 | 0.48–3.14 | 2.33 | 1.21–3.45 | 0.92–3.74 | 4.141.40–6.88 |
| Red cards | 0.09 | 0.00–0.24 | 0.00–0.40 | 0.08 | 0.00–0.27 | 0.00–0.42 | 0.170.00–0.81 |
| GK saves | 2.58 | 1.16–3.99 | 0.77–4.38 | 3.46 | 1.91–5.02 | 1.48–5.45 | 6.042.25–9.83 |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic
Who wins each stat?
home draw away
Goals
55%
24%
21%
Shots on target
71%
18%
Total shots
83%
Shots in box
75%
18%
Blocked shots
56%
15%
29%
Corners
64%
25%
Fouls
40%
52%
Offsides
37%
25%
38%
Yellow cards
30%
20%
50%
Red cards
85%
GK saves
28%
16%
56%
Model-implied probabilities from the predicted rates (Poisson approximation, teams treated as independent).
Model details — best model per statistic (lgbm, lstm_mlp_multi, lstm_mlp_single, xgb) · snapshot 2b4a317d · computed
| Target | Model / policy | Variant | PCA | MAE | RMSE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWAY_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.415 | 1.901 |
| AWAY_CORNERS | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.978 | 2.516 |
| AWAY_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.945 | 3.863 |
| AWAY_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.554 | 1.986 |
| AWAY_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.860 | 1.106 |
| AWAY_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.163 | 1.495 |
| AWAY_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 64.581 | 82.146 |
| AWAY_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.507 | 5.837 |
| AWAY_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.319 | 7.916 |
| AWAY_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 0.193 | 0.337 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_IN_BOX | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.301 | 3.098 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.707 | 2.176 |
| AWAY_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.378 | 4.309 |
| AWAY_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.120 | 1.410 |
| HOME_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cards_cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.584 | 2.119 |
| HOME_CORNERS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.205 | 2.800 |
| HOME_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.857 | 3.742 |
| HOME_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.414 | 1.804 |
| HOME_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.963 | 1.223 |
| HOME_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.209 | 1.554 |
| HOME_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 65.331 | 82.955 |
| HOME_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.216 | 5.517 |
| HOME_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.318 | 7.914 |
| HOME_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.153 | 0.306 |
| HOME_SHOTS_IN_BOX | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.516 | 3.381 |
| HOME_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.856 | 2.355 |
| HOME_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.703 | 4.734 |
| HOME_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.056 | 1.328 |
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+