Süper Lig· Regular Season - 11· · referee: not announced
Predicted match statistics
| Stat | Home | safe | safer | Away | safe | safer | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.48 | 0.52–2.44 | 0.26–2.70 | 1.48 | 0.62–2.34 | 0.37–2.59 | 2.960.63–5.29 |
| Shots on target | 4.70 | 2.84–6.55 | 2.34–7.05 | 4.54 | 2.83–6.25 | 2.37–6.72 | 9.244.71–13.77 |
| Total shots | 13.05 | 9.34–16.75 | 8.31–17.78 | 12.80 | 9.42–16.17 | 8.49–17.10 | 25.8416.80–34.88 |
| Shots in box | 7.75 | 5.23–10.26 | 4.37–11.13 | 8.93 | 6.63–11.24 | 5.84–12.03 | 16.6810.20–23.16 |
| Blocked shots | 3.45 | 1.87–5.03 | 1.33–5.57 | 3.29 | 1.87–4.70 | 1.39–5.19 | 6.742.72–10.76 |
| Corners | 5.31 | 3.11–7.52 | 2.51–8.11 | 4.73 | 2.75–6.71 | 2.22–7.25 | 10.044.73–15.36 |
| Possession % | 52.77 | 46.45–59.09 | 44.86–60.69 | 47.65 | 41.33–53.97 | 39.74–55.57 | — |
| Passes | 482 | 416–547 | 399–565 | 458 | 393–522 | 375–540 | 939774–1104 |
| Pass accuracy % | 83.75 | 79.53–87.96 | 78.23–89.26 | 77.94 | 73.43–82.45 | 72.10–83.78 | — |
| Fouls | 11.47 | 8.61–14.33 | 7.73–15.21 | 11.61 | 8.67–14.56 | 7.75–15.48 | 23.0815.48–30.69 |
| Offsides | 2.02 | 0.81–3.23 | 0.47–3.57 | 1.92 | 0.76–3.09 | 0.43–3.42 | 3.940.89–6.99 |
| Yellow cards | 1.76 | 0.70–2.81 | 0.43–3.08 | 2.08 | 0.96–3.20 | 0.67–3.49 | 3.841.10–6.57 |
| Red cards | 0.08 | 0.00–0.23 | 0.00–0.38 | 0.08 | 0.00–0.27 | 0.00–0.41 | 0.150.00–0.80 |
| GK saves | 3.50 | 2.08–4.91 | 1.70–5.30 | 2.80 | 1.25–4.36 | 0.82–4.79 | 6.302.51–10.09 |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic
Who wins each stat?
home draw away
Goals
38%
24%
38%
Shots on target
45%
13%
41%
Total shots
48%
44%
Shots in box
34%
57%
Blocked shots
45%
16%
40%
Corners
51%
37%
Fouls
45%
47%
Offsides
41%
21%
38%
Yellow cards
33%
21%
46%
Red cards
86%
GK saves
53%
16%
31%
Model-implied probabilities from the predicted rates (Poisson approximation, teams treated as independent).
Model details — best model per statistic (lgbm, lstm_mlp_multi, lstm_mlp_single, xgb) · snapshot 2b4a317d · computed
| Target | Model / policy | Variant | PCA | MAE | RMSE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWAY_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.415 | 1.901 |
| AWAY_CORNERS | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.978 | 2.516 |
| AWAY_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.945 | 3.863 |
| AWAY_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.554 | 1.986 |
| AWAY_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.860 | 1.106 |
| AWAY_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.163 | 1.495 |
| AWAY_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 64.581 | 82.146 |
| AWAY_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.507 | 5.837 |
| AWAY_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.319 | 7.916 |
| AWAY_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 0.193 | 0.337 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_IN_BOX | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.301 | 3.098 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.707 | 2.176 |
| AWAY_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.378 | 4.309 |
| AWAY_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.120 | 1.410 |
| HOME_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cards_cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.584 | 2.119 |
| HOME_CORNERS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.205 | 2.800 |
| HOME_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.857 | 3.742 |
| HOME_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.414 | 1.804 |
| HOME_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.963 | 1.223 |
| HOME_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.209 | 1.554 |
| HOME_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 65.331 | 82.955 |
| HOME_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.216 | 5.517 |
| HOME_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.318 | 7.914 |
| HOME_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.153 | 0.306 |
| HOME_SHOTS_IN_BOX | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.516 | 3.381 |
| HOME_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.856 | 2.355 |
| HOME_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.703 | 4.734 |
| HOME_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.056 | 1.328 |
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+