Süper Lig· Regular Season - 11· · referee: not announced
Predicted match statistics
| Stat | Home | safe | safer | Away | safe | safer | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 2.13 | 1.17–3.10 | 0.91–3.36 | 1.07 | 0.21–1.93 | 0.00–2.17 | 3.200.87–5.53 |
| Shots on target | 5.83 | 3.97–7.68 | 3.47–8.18 | 3.15 | 1.44–4.86 | 0.97–5.32 | 8.974.44–13.50 |
| Total shots | 16.47 | 12.77–20.18 | 11.74–21.21 | 9.36 | 5.98–12.73 | 5.05–13.67 | 25.8316.79–34.87 |
| Shots in box | 12.33 | 9.81–14.84 | 8.95–15.71 | 5.63 | 3.33–7.94 | 2.54–8.73 | 17.9611.48–24.44 |
| Blocked shots | 4.82 | 3.24–6.41 | 2.71–6.94 | 2.39 | 0.98–3.81 | 0.49–4.30 | 7.223.20–11.24 |
| Corners | 6.39 | 4.19–8.60 | 3.59–9.19 | 3.11 | 1.13–5.08 | 0.59–5.62 | 9.504.18–14.81 |
| Possession % | 61.39 | 55.07–67.71 | 53.48–69.31 | 37.29 | 30.97–43.61 | 29.38–45.21 | — |
| Passes | 549 | 484–614 | 466–632 | 326 | 262–391 | 244–408 | 875710–1040 |
| Pass accuracy % | 86.13 | 81.92–90.35 | 80.62–91.65 | 77.74 | 73.24–82.25 | 71.91–83.58 | — |
| Fouls | 11.87 | 9.01–14.73 | 8.13–15.61 | 12.61 | 9.67–15.56 | 8.75–16.48 | 24.4816.88–32.09 |
| Offsides | 1.26 | 0.05–2.47 | 0.00–2.81 | 2.10 | 0.94–3.26 | 0.61–3.60 | 3.360.31–6.41 |
| Yellow cards | 1.72 | 0.66–2.77 | 0.39–3.04 | 2.22 | 1.10–3.34 | 0.81–3.63 | 3.941.20–6.68 |
| Red cards | 0.03 | 0.00–0.18 | 0.00–0.33 | 0.09 | 0.00–0.28 | 0.00–0.42 | 0.120.00–0.76 |
| GK saves | 2.32 | 0.90–3.73 | 0.52–4.12 | 3.56 | 2.00–5.11 | 1.57–5.54 | 5.872.09–9.66 |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic
Who wins each stat?
home draw away
Goals
62%
20%
18%
Shots on target
77%
14%
Total shots
91%
Shots in box
93%
Blocked shots
76%
13%
Corners
82%
Fouls
40%
52%
Offsides
22%
21%
57%
Yellow cards
30%
20%
50%
Red cards
89%
GK saves
23%
15%
62%
Model-implied probabilities from the predicted rates (Poisson approximation, teams treated as independent).
Model details — best model per statistic (lgbm, lstm_mlp_multi, lstm_mlp_single, xgb) · snapshot 2b4a317d · computed
| Target | Model / policy | Variant | PCA | MAE | RMSE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWAY_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.415 | 1.901 |
| AWAY_CORNERS | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.978 | 2.516 |
| AWAY_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.945 | 3.863 |
| AWAY_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.554 | 1.986 |
| AWAY_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.860 | 1.106 |
| AWAY_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.163 | 1.495 |
| AWAY_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 64.581 | 82.146 |
| AWAY_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.507 | 5.837 |
| AWAY_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.319 | 7.916 |
| AWAY_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 0.193 | 0.337 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_IN_BOX | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.301 | 3.098 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.707 | 2.176 |
| AWAY_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.378 | 4.309 |
| AWAY_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.120 | 1.410 |
| HOME_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cards_cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.584 | 2.119 |
| HOME_CORNERS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.205 | 2.800 |
| HOME_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.857 | 3.742 |
| HOME_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.414 | 1.804 |
| HOME_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.963 | 1.223 |
| HOME_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.209 | 1.554 |
| HOME_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 65.331 | 82.955 |
| HOME_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.216 | 5.517 |
| HOME_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.318 | 7.914 |
| HOME_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.153 | 0.306 |
| HOME_SHOTS_IN_BOX | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.516 | 3.381 |
| HOME_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.856 | 2.355 |
| HOME_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.703 | 4.734 |
| HOME_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.056 | 1.328 |
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+