Süper Lig· Regular Season - 13· · referee: not announced
Predicted match statistics
| Stat | Home | safe | safer | Away | safe | safer | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.09 | 0.13–2.05 | 0.00–2.31 | 1.76 | 0.90–2.62 | 0.66–2.87 | 2.860.53–5.19 |
| Shots on target | 3.97 | 2.12–5.83 | 1.62–6.33 | 4.86 | 3.15–6.57 | 2.68–7.03 | 8.834.30–13.36 |
| Total shots | 11.86 | 8.16–15.56 | 7.13–16.59 | 13.63 | 10.25–17.01 | 9.32–17.94 | 25.4916.45–34.53 |
| Shots in box | 7.11 | 4.59–9.62 | 3.72–10.49 | 9.07 | 6.77–11.37 | 5.97–12.17 | 16.189.70–22.65 |
| Blocked shots | 3.18 | 1.60–4.76 | 1.06–5.30 | 3.12 | 1.71–4.53 | 1.22–5.02 | 6.302.28–10.32 |
| Corners | 4.11 | 1.90–6.32 | 1.31–6.91 | 4.80 | 2.83–6.78 | 2.29–7.32 | 8.913.60–14.23 |
| Possession % | 43.47 | 37.15–49.79 | 35.56–51.38 | 57.74 | 51.43–64.06 | 49.83–65.66 | — |
| Passes | 350 | 285–415 | 267–433 | 477 | 412–541 | 394–559 | 827661–992 |
| Pass accuracy % | 79.13 | 74.91–83.34 | 73.61–84.64 | 85.16 | 80.65–89.67 | 79.32–91.00 | — |
| Fouls | 11.78 | 8.92–14.64 | 8.04–15.52 | 14.14 | 11.19–17.08 | 10.27–18.00 | 25.9218.31–33.52 |
| Offsides | 2.08 | 0.87–3.29 | 0.52–3.63 | 1.93 | 0.77–3.09 | 0.44–3.43 | 4.010.96–7.06 |
| Yellow cards | 1.99 | 0.93–3.04 | 0.66–3.31 | 2.21 | 1.09–3.33 | 0.80–3.62 | 4.191.45–6.93 |
| Red cards | 0.14 | 0.00–0.29 | 0.00–0.44 | 0.09 | 0.00–0.28 | 0.00–0.42 | 0.230.00–0.87 |
| GK saves | 3.05 | 1.64–4.47 | 1.25–4.85 | 2.64 | 1.08–4.19 | 0.65–4.62 | 5.691.90–9.48 |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic
Who wins each stat?
home draw away
Goals
23%
23%
53%
Shots on target
32%
13%
55%
Total shots
33%
60%
Shots in box
27%
64%
Blocked shots
43%
16%
41%
Corners
34%
13%
52%
Fouls
29%
64%
Offsides
43%
21%
37%
Yellow cards
36%
20%
44%
Red cards
81%
GK saves
48%
17%
35%
Model-implied probabilities from the predicted rates (Poisson approximation, teams treated as independent).
Model details — best model per statistic (lgbm, lstm_mlp_multi, lstm_mlp_single, xgb) · snapshot 2b4a317d · computed
| Target | Model / policy | Variant | PCA | MAE | RMSE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWAY_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.415 | 1.901 |
| AWAY_CORNERS | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.978 | 2.516 |
| AWAY_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.945 | 3.863 |
| AWAY_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.554 | 1.986 |
| AWAY_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.860 | 1.106 |
| AWAY_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.163 | 1.495 |
| AWAY_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 64.581 | 82.146 |
| AWAY_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.507 | 5.837 |
| AWAY_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.319 | 7.916 |
| AWAY_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 0.193 | 0.337 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_IN_BOX | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.301 | 3.098 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.707 | 2.176 |
| AWAY_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.378 | 4.309 |
| AWAY_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.120 | 1.410 |
| HOME_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cards_cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.584 | 2.119 |
| HOME_CORNERS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.205 | 2.800 |
| HOME_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.857 | 3.742 |
| HOME_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.414 | 1.804 |
| HOME_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.963 | 1.223 |
| HOME_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.209 | 1.554 |
| HOME_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 65.331 | 82.955 |
| HOME_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.216 | 5.517 |
| HOME_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.318 | 7.914 |
| HOME_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.153 | 0.306 |
| HOME_SHOTS_IN_BOX | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.516 | 3.381 |
| HOME_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.856 | 2.355 |
| HOME_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.703 | 4.734 |
| HOME_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.056 | 1.328 |
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+