Süper Lig· Regular Season - 13· · Gaziantep Stadyumu· referee: not announced
Predicted match statistics
| Stat | Home | safe | safer | Away | safe | safer | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.06 | 0.10–2.02 | 0.00–2.28 | 1.52 | 0.66–2.38 | 0.41–2.62 | 2.580.25–4.91 |
| Shots on target | 3.47 | 1.62–5.33 | 1.12–5.83 | 4.63 | 2.93–6.34 | 2.46–6.81 | 8.113.58–12.64 |
| Total shots | 11.22 | 7.52–14.93 | 6.49–15.96 | 13.64 | 10.26–17.02 | 9.33–17.95 | 24.8615.82–33.90 |
| Shots in box | 6.52 | 4.00–9.04 | 3.14–9.90 | 7.65 | 5.35–9.95 | 4.55–10.75 | 14.177.69–20.65 |
| Blocked shots | 2.64 | 1.05–4.22 | 0.52–4.76 | 3.45 | 2.04–4.87 | 1.55–5.36 | 6.092.07–10.11 |
| Corners | 4.22 | 2.01–6.42 | 1.41–7.02 | 4.82 | 2.84–6.80 | 2.30–7.34 | 9.033.72–14.35 |
| Possession % | 46.41 | 40.09–52.72 | 38.49–54.32 | 53.29 | 46.97–59.61 | 45.37–61.20 | — |
| Passes | 406 | 341–471 | 323–489 | 451 | 386–515 | 368–533 | 857692–1022 |
| Pass accuracy % | 78.34 | 74.12–82.55 | 72.82–83.85 | 83.57 | 79.06–88.08 | 77.73–89.41 | — |
| Fouls | 11.38 | 8.52–14.24 | 7.64–15.12 | 13.23 | 10.28–16.17 | 9.36–17.09 | 24.6117.00–32.21 |
| Offsides | 1.28 | 0.07–2.49 | 0.00–2.84 | 1.90 | 0.74–3.06 | 0.41–3.40 | 3.180.14–6.23 |
| Yellow cards | 2.20 | 1.14–3.25 | 0.87–3.53 | 1.87 | 0.75–2.99 | 0.46–3.28 | 4.071.33–6.81 |
| Red cards | 0.07 | 0.00–0.22 | 0.00–0.38 | 0.10 | 0.00–0.29 | 0.00–0.44 | 0.170.00–0.81 |
| GK saves | 3.31 | 1.89–4.72 | 1.50–5.11 | 2.44 | 0.88–3.99 | 0.45–4.42 | 5.741.95–9.53 |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic
Who wins each stat?
home draw away
Goals
27%
26%
48%
Shots on target
28%
13%
59%
Total shots
28%
65%
Shots in box
33%
57%
Blocked shots
29%
16%
55%
Corners
36%
13%
51%
Fouls
32%
61%
Offsides
26%
22%
52%
Yellow cards
46%
20%
34%
Red cards
85%
GK saves
56%
16%
28%
Model-implied probabilities from the predicted rates (Poisson approximation, teams treated as independent).
Model details — best model per statistic (lgbm, lstm_mlp_multi, lstm_mlp_single, xgb) · snapshot 2b4a317d · computed
| Target | Model / policy | Variant | PCA | MAE | RMSE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWAY_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.415 | 1.901 |
| AWAY_CORNERS | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.978 | 2.516 |
| AWAY_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.945 | 3.863 |
| AWAY_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.554 | 1.986 |
| AWAY_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.860 | 1.106 |
| AWAY_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.163 | 1.495 |
| AWAY_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 64.581 | 82.146 |
| AWAY_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.507 | 5.837 |
| AWAY_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.319 | 7.916 |
| AWAY_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 0.193 | 0.337 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_IN_BOX | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.301 | 3.098 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.707 | 2.176 |
| AWAY_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.378 | 4.309 |
| AWAY_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.120 | 1.410 |
| HOME_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cards_cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.584 | 2.119 |
| HOME_CORNERS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.205 | 2.800 |
| HOME_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.857 | 3.742 |
| HOME_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.414 | 1.804 |
| HOME_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.963 | 1.223 |
| HOME_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.209 | 1.554 |
| HOME_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 65.331 | 82.955 |
| HOME_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.216 | 5.517 |
| HOME_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.318 | 7.914 |
| HOME_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.153 | 0.306 |
| HOME_SHOTS_IN_BOX | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.516 | 3.381 |
| HOME_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.856 | 2.355 |
| HOME_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.703 | 4.734 |
| HOME_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.056 | 1.328 |
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+